SUM - Summerset Group

**Food4Thought** · 05-04-2016, 03:25 PM

Hi Couta1, any idea of where you see the share price dropping to and a rough estimate of the timing for this correction?

**OldGuy** · 05-04-2016, 04:18 PM

Originally Posted by Food4Thought

Hi Couta1, any idea of where you see the share price dropping to and a rough estimate of the timing for this correction?

Noah fence, but Couta hasn't exactly outperformed in his entry/exit timings on this stock.

Personally, I don't think the market will be too worried about the latest metrics, and most astute followers have confidence that this year's build target will be met.

Therefore, either exit now for the small possibility of cheaper re-entry over the next month or so, OR just hold tight like the rest of us

**Beagle** · 05-04-2016, 04:52 PM

Thing is when a company is growing underlying profit at 55% per annum sitting out that growth for any meaningful length of time when the call account interest rate is a whopping 2% per annum is a brave call in my opinion but good luck to those that are trying to use that strategy with this stock.

**OldGuy** · 05-04-2016, 04:58 PM

Originally Posted by Roger

Thing is when a company is growing underlying profit at 55% per annum sitting out that growth for any meaningful length of time when the call account interest rate is a whopping 2% per annum is a brave call in my opinion but good luck to those that are trying to use that strategy with this stock.

agreed, Roger. Timing the market is pretty hard, and the opportunity cost of holding is small.

**macduffy** · 05-04-2016, 05:11 PM

Originally Posted by OldGuy

agreed, Roger. Timing the market is pretty hard, and the opportunity cost of holding is small.

So true. "Time in the market" not "Timing the market" is the key. (See EBO thread.)

**couta1** · 05-04-2016, 05:40 PM

Originally Posted by Food4Thought

Hi Couta1, any idea of where you see the share price dropping to and a rough estimate of the timing for this correction?

I reckon $4 is fair value and I don't think anyone can give a fixed timing for any whole market correction but stocks can have their own micro correction, so anytime for that, look at Spark currently as an example. Not entirely true Old Guy re entry as my original holding was purchased at $1.40 but yes last year my itchy fingers jumped the gun on exit, but then I guess you can relate to poor entry and exits aye(Does Peb ring any large bells)

**Beagle** · 06-04-2016, 11:41 AM

Originally Posted by couta1

I reckon $4 is fair value and I don't think anyone can give a fixed timing for any whole market correction but stocks can have their own micro correction, so anytime for that, look at Spark currently as an example. Not entirely true Old Guy re entry as my original holding was purchased at $1.40 but yes last year my itchy fingers jumped the gun on exit, but then I guess you can relate to poor entry and exits aye(Does Peb ring any large bells)

Okay, so in the two years I sat out this stock for reasons previously articulated in went from $3.60 to $4.00 a 10% gain and only about a 1.5% annual dividend rate and during those two years underlying profits grew 70%. Yes it was probably over-priced a bit when I sold for matters of principle but I think the current price is more than reasonable for this high growth sector. Some people are obviously disappointed by Q1 sales metrics but those with a long memory have seen this before...it drifts down and as soon as they announce better quarterly metrics off she goes. You could be right about your $4 but I reckon it would be a bargain at that price for this high growth sector so I'd be inclined to back your mate Julian Cook even more.