SUM - Summerset Group

[OldGuy]

Yes, as per my post above

[Bjauck]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11620162
Good location that one.

Mr Cook sees market capitalisation doubling in circa 5 years...pretty conservative if you ask me but if that's the result I'll take it and be happy.

That works out to be a tad under 15% compounded p.a. If it comes to pass, that is a good forecast.

Incidentally I think 15% was the discount rate applied last year by Infratil in assessing Retire Australia cash flows. I seem to remember, some years ago, Infratil stating 15% pa return was its benchmark for assessing possible investments - and "mentioning" that, at that stage, its return to shareholders was exceeding that level!

[winner69]

15% annual growth compounded doubles your money in exactly 5 years

.........plus a bit extra for the oysters and chips down on the beach

[Food4Thought]

Couta1, I am also happy to see you back on board and participating. Did not enjoy seeing you get burned when you exited last time. Another lesson in many ways for yourself and others too to learn from other peoples experience. I imagine this post gets followed by a few people directly part of the retirement sector and appreciate all criticism and insight into their enterprises. Can't wait to see how this young SUM grows into he future and to see the development of this sector. Happy sailing, another great day on the ocean

[Beagle]

Hoist an even bigger spinnaker ?...didn't realise Mr Cook was talking 400 retirement units PLUS one hundred care beds until today...

I think we might be able to afford to fly down to Bluff and get em straight off the boat when they're fresh Winner

[Zaphod]

SUM has performed very pleasingly of late. In hindsight I bought in too early back in 2013 on the basis of some discussions I had with an operator in the sector and the prerequisite analysis. Still, it's paid off in the long term and late 2014 provided very good (in hindsight) opportunities for top ups. If they can keep raising their build rate margins and steadily increasing sales rates, I'll be very pleased.

[winner69]

Roger (on Ryman thread)

On a positive note it was great to see real estate prices across much of New Zealand continue their upward momentum last month.
What intrigue's me a little is we've seen them absolutely boom in Auckland over the last two years in particular and yet the SP's of RYM in particular and SUM to a lesser extent haven't shown a similar momentum. I'd suggest this augers very well for embedded value and future realisation of same.

Besides building 400 units this year what you have pointed out is the key driver of why Summerset will report real earnings of $120m plus this year,

Thats 55 cents/share - SUM worth heaps more that what it priced at at the moment - even $6 is not overvalued

And these booming house prices (across most of the country) will continue through next year Roger if you get your way and see OCR down to 1.5% soon.

[Beagle]

Yes the house price growth across much of the country and in particular focused on much of the North Island where SUM have the vast majority of their villages has been very strong and augers well for strong valuation gains going forward both realised and unrealised so no matter which profit methodology one uses, (underlying of IFRS), the future looks very bright. I have quite a bit of sympathy for the full IFRS reported profit number when future gains are underpinned by a benign outlook for interest rates. I think SUM copped a bit of selling pressure on the back on a single quarters slightly underwhelming sales result but canny investors (including Old guy) will look through that to a tremendous full year result for 31 Dec 2016 and strong ongoing growth.

[BlackPeter]

5. April 2016:

Share price in the late 3's here we come. Underwhelming result and do not hold sum

5. April 2016:

I'd say there will a bit of weakness in sp, I'm out and prepared to wait for a better buying opportunity. Each to there own.

6. April 2016:

yep I see 3.80-4.00 Soon

Hi NZ Silver, just wondering whether you can help us and define "soon" in your quoted prediction a bit better? Next week? Next month? Next year? Never? Look - we are all waiting to pick up some more SUM shares for the bargain prices you are seeing ...

So far it looks like the SP bounced beautifully at the MA 30 and personally am I glad that I bought the shares when I did - and actually even got some more of them, but this is just me. As you said ... "each to their own".

[OldGuy]

Yes the house price growth across much of the country and in particular focused on much of the North Island where SUM have the vast majority of their villages has been very strong and augers well for strong valuation gains going forward both realised and unrealised so no matter which profit methodology one uses, (underlying of IFRS), the future looks very bright. I have quite a bit of sympathy for the full IFRS reported profit number when future gains are underpinned by a benign outlook for interest rates. I think SUM copped a bit of selling pressure on the back on a single quarters slightly underwhelming sales result but canny investors (including Old guy) will look through that to a tremendous full year result for 31 Dec 2016 and strong ongoing growth.

haha, thanks Roger (saves me having to blow my own trumpet every time!)

Are you going to the AGM?