SUM - Summerset Group

[artemis]

..... is it finally time to restrict (at least existing) house purchases to residents or those who intend shortly to be residents and cut out from the market foreigners resident overseas..

Labour and friends have not announced their housing policy yet, but I would not be surprised to see this when they do. It's not really aligned with National general direction, but since they are more or less Labour Lite anything could happen.

[winner69]

Back on topic

rough and dirty way to estimate/guess/project/forecast Summerset underlying earnings is to take the number of expected sales and multiply that by a realised fair value adjustment number. Method has worked pretty well over the last few half years so must be pretty robust

See a trend in this series of numbers - $43k, $61k, $63k, $70k?

Hint - it reflects improved development margins and rising property prices in general

All part of the reason why Summerset reported NPAT will be ~$120m this year - about 55 cents a share - at a PE of 12 share price over $6 later this year / early next year

[Bjauck]

...If people don't have mid $400's in equity by the time they're 70 what have they been doing with their lives ? Nobody can tell me SUM's more straightforward units aren't affordable even in Auckland ! Lifestyle doesn't look to bad either.
http://www.summerset.co.nz/hobsonvil...village/video/

Although statistics on this are lacking, it has been estimated that 33-38% of residents in long-term care do not receive a subsidy. Presumably that for 62-67% of residents, it means their assets are below the asset threshholds. Some of those residents who may be eligible for subsidies may have spouses, not in care, with equity in a very valuable house but few other assets. Even so, there would be many, perhaps even a majority of seniors, who would not be able to find $400k for a cheap SUM unit- let alone finding extra to supplement Superannuation to pay for the annual village charge.

https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal/read...7-no-1402/6292

[Beagle]

Back on topic

rough and dirty way to estimate/guess/project/forecast Summerset underlying earnings is to take the number of expected sales and multiply that by a realised fair value adjustment number. Method has worked pretty well over the last few half years so must be pretty robust

See a trend in this series of numbers - $43k, $61k, $63k, $70k? $80K per unit this year mate ?

Hint - it reflects improved development margins and rising property prices in general

All part of the reason why Summerset reported NPAT will be ~$120m this year - about 55 cents a share - at a PE of 12 share price over $6 later this year / early next year

Inflation taking out the last ciggy tax increase was minus 0.1%, wasn't it minus last quarter ? Reserve bank looks set to lower interest rates yet again fueling even more house price increases so maybe $85-90K profit per unit next year ?

[winner69]

Inflation taking out the last ciggy tax increase was minus 0.1%, wasn't it minus last quarter ? Reserve bank looks set to lower interest rates yet again fueling even more house price increases so maybe $85-90K profit per unit next year ?

You sharp witted today Roger

On how many sales then - 400 new ones? plus 250/300 resales?

[Beagle]

You sharp witted today Roger

On how many sales then - 400 new ones? plus 250/300 resales?

Maybe 420 new units next year being conservative. Resales, yeah 250-300 looks about right so what you reckon for December 2017 mate ? $140-$150M ?

[Beagle]

http://www.interest.co.nz/property/8...er-winter-year

All looks good.

How was the fishing at spot X Couta1 ? Fishing no good on the market today...there's always tomorrow.

[Food4Thought]

Good day for getting bites today. Has the boat departed? or is this wharf fishing?

[Ggcc]

Running out on the sell side..... The way this share is going, long term maybe the key. Especially when I hear the mention of an $9 share in three to four years

[silu]

1 billion dollars (sorry couldn't help myself).