SUM - Summerset Group

[percy]

For the TA's out there, is this a HS pattern?

Well I see the long term trend is still intact.
Today the sp is $4.29 which is above the 200 day EMA at $4.17.

[Food4Thought]

...And there we go again

[kizame]

For the TA's out there, is this a HS pattern?

No. It's not a head and shoulders. If that were to be a head and shoulders you might find RYM following the same pattern as they tend to be more or less in step with one another.

[BlackPeter]

No. It's not a head and shoulders. If that were to be a head and shoulders you might find RYM following the same pattern as they tend to be more or less in step with one another.

Hmm - I guess we agree that this is unlikely to turn into a HS pattern ... but maybe you could explain for us lay-people what RYM has to do with it? I can't see why a correlation with RYM should prevent a HS pattern?

Obviously - it depends as well at what you are looking at. If you take the most recent 3 peaks in SUM's graph, than obviously - this is no HS pattern, given that the 3rd peak is higher than the second.

SUM-HS1plus.JPG

However - if I take the last 2 peaks and assume that the last peak is a head, than yes, it might turn technically into a HS pattern, but so may basically any ripple in any uptrend (i.e. highly insignificant) ... the thing about HS patterns is that you only can identify them when they are finished, and this one certainly is not (yet) and in my view not likely to do so.

SUM-HS2plus.JPG

However again - what do you think has RYM to do with that?

[Hoop]

A sea of red in my watchlist - some of them I can understand (like AIR, THL, various banks), some I am somewhat surprised about. I wouldn't have thought that retirement villages (SUM, MET, RYM) and gentailers (CEN & Co) will be hard hit due to the decision of the English to leave the EU, but on the other hand - given that I can't understand the English people, why should I be able to understand the markets?

Any ideas how NZ retirement villages and power generators are linked into the English exitus?

Well I sold my SUM on Friday for $4.40.

My rationale was that if this turns into some form of credit squeeze (look at how European banks got hammered), it will have a negative impact on borrowing and that generally leads to housing corrections.

I will be watching closely and there may be a chance to buy in once the dust has settled or opportunities in other areas.

I pulled these comments from the Black Monday thread before they get lost in the flood of posts..

From the chart below.... the 14 June was a Technical breakdown for SUM as for some others on the NZX..Actually the NZX50 also got TA damaged on the 14th and has been trending down since then..

Why should retirement villages feel the heat from a NZX correction?
I guess investors look at history and remember what could happen...especially relating to Property Crashes..
SUM hasn't the history yet but RYM has...RYM got absolutely pounded by the bear during the GFC..it lost nearly 60% of value during 18 months downtrend and it took 5 years to get that capital value back...
OK..the crash and many other financial nasties (apart from Finance Company sector crash) never eventuated for NZ or Australia..so the doom for RYM wasn't real... but the technical damage to RYM shares was real and it took 5 years to rectify..

At the moment what has been rather unfortunate for NZ stocks is the timing..NZ stocks are having a breather after its solid record breaking rally and therefore weakening and correcting ..then Brexit entered the scene adding extra downward pressure..

SUM fell to test its critical conjuncture (black dotted circle)...then Brexit entered the scene.. the good news today is that SUM tested (low 203) and bounced up off it...This Chartist can say today that so far, the Brexit has had technically no additional effect on SUM

[Grunter]

I'm amused that there are those trying to use TA to predict the direction of a stock during a "grey swan" event.

[Fox]

Thank you for your input and clarifying the H&S pattern Hoop, I always appreciate your TA.

[Grunter]

This Chartist can say today that so far, the Brexit has had technically no additional effect on SUM

I'm sorry, that is absolute garbage. You are saying that Brexit has no effect on the pullback in SUM's share price, yet Brexit and the lead up to it has been the dominant reason for a pullback in stocks across the board as as a flight to safety has taken shape. Look at the retirement village sector as a whole (or even the market as a whole) and you will see that RYM and MET have also pulled back - this means that there is no company-specific driver for SUM's share price - which there must be for your analysis that Brexit has not affected SUM to be correct from a TA point of view.

[Hoop]

I'm amused that there are those trying to use TA to predict the direction of a stock during a "grey swan" event.

Grunter..please open your mind to allow TAer's to analyse investor's behaviour during these events...it adds to our knowledge of how we could able to take advantage of a situation...sometimes these black swan events are windows of opportunities and sometimes they are omens leading to sharp corrections...Just taking an emotional guess using your rearview experience to drive your investments forward is fraught with danger..The wise and successful investor uses all the tools in their toolbox for their decision making...there minds are open and flexible to possible change..

Grunter I suggest you add this tool to your toolbox..you don't have to use it but I strongly suggest you learn how to use it..as you never know it may come in handy for you later...

Remeber TA is just a graphic result of what has happened in the past up to what is happening now...TA can not predict the future..TA can however analyse the odds of a happening reasonably well,

TA is a tool for all investors...used properly it can aid you in your decision making process..It can also help some who either forgotten or wrongly perceived past share price and share trends ..It also used to correct personal thought biases, thereby correcting investors logical decisions...

[Fox]

I'm sorry, that is absolute garbage. You are saying that Brexit has no effect on the pullback in SUM's share price, yet Brexit and the lead up to it has been the dominant reason for a pullback in stocks across the board as as a flight to safety has taken shape. Look at the retirement village sector as a whole (or even the market as a whole) and you will see that RYM and MET have also pulled back - this means that there is no company-specific driver for SUM's share price - which there must be for your analysis that Brexit has not affected SUM to be correct from a TA point of view.

I think he is talking in terms of TA signals and the fact that the 200 day MA and upward trend lines are still in tact. There haven't been a cascade of selling signals, so as of today, the TA on SUM remains sound.