SUM - Summerset Group

[Bjauck]

You are sounding like an investment adviser again; telling us investors what the future is for certain with investment bias in full flow.Do you have any qualifications that gives you that sort of authority?

Am I correct in my understanding that no posts on this forum are investment advice as the forums are for friendly banter and discussion? If someone erroneously is tempted to treat a post as "investment advice" they should consider how much the "advice" has cost and how well they know the poster's identity and their qualifications.

Buy and Hold ; Wet and Forget spin,can be Long and Wrong in these fast changing times.

Agree. Each investment and sector has various risks; some more than others. The government and qangos (eg ComCom) can decide to regulate, increase regulation and change regulation and its interpretation in every sphere. IMO, The current government is more likely to want to decrease taxation rather than to increase spending on social services. As always DYOR.

[Vaygor1]

Whatever SUM heading to underlying profit of $55m and npat of $120m in F16
Next year f17 should see pretty strong growth again
That sort of performance warrants a share price well in excess of $6 in the current market
Under $5 at the moment - great investment with minimal downside risk at these prices and with the potential to make heaps
No brainer really

Initially I agree with you Winner...

SUM's Underlying Profit at say $54 million equates to an Underlying Profit of 24.5 cents/share.
When Ryman's underlying profit was 24.5 cents per share, a non-bull non-bear market valued them at over $7.60
Now the market's perception of SUM's potential growth rate might not be as high as it was when RYM's underlying profit was 24.5 cents/share and historically SUM's share price has been less predictable than RYM's, but SUM's closing price of $4.86 on Friday just gone initially appears to be a great deal to me.

But the above also assumes that SUM's method of determining Underlying Profit is substantially the same as RYM's, and I can't see why there should be any substantial difference.

However, having a look at this summary....

Attachment 8416

... I am a bit cautious.

Is Summerset acheiving the same Underlyng EPS/share with around 1/2 the asset base and 1/2 the number units that RYM was capable of achieving at the equivalent time in their growth?
Was RYM that inefficient?.... or is SUM very efficient?.... or is there some kind of short term sector growth that will reflect in RYM's results too?

Disc. Long term holder of RYM. Not a holder of SUM yet.

[BlackPeter]

Is Summerset acheiving the same Underlyng EPS/share with around 1/2 the asset base and 1/2 the number units that RYM was capable of achieving at the equivalent time in their growth?
Was RYM that inefficient?.... or is SUM very efficient?.... or is there some kind of short term sector growth that will reflect in RYM's results too?

Disc. Long term holder of RYM. Not a holder of SUM yet.

... great analysis, however you provide already in your table the answer to your question. Yes, SUM achieves (roughly) the same EPS with only half of the assets. However - it is only half the number of shares either. This means, that the companies should be absolutely comparable (on a per share base - nota bene) and yes, SUM appears to be undervalued compared to RYM.

Discl: hold SUM and bought some more at 4.86 ; Intended to buy as well some RYM, but for some reason nobody wanted to fill my offer.

[Vaygor1]

... great analysis, however you provide already in your table the answer to your question. Yes, SUM achieves (roughly) the same EPS with only half of the assets. However - it is only half the number of shares either. This means, that the companies should be absolutely comparable (on a per share base - nota bene) and yes, SUM appears to be undervalued compared to RYM.

Discl: hold SUM and bought some more at 4.86 ; Intended to buy as well some RYM, but for some reason nobody wanted to fill my offer.

Hi BlackPeter.
Thanks. Correct you are. Lost the plot on my questions there.
Definitely worth a bit more analysis on SUM for me now I think.

[percy]

Hi BlackPeter.
Thanks. Correct you are. Lost the plot on my questions there.
Definitely worth a bit more analysis on SUM for me now I think.

"No brainer" to me.
Hold both.
You could say I am "well positioned".lol.

[Beagle]

Hi BlackPeter.
Thanks. Correct you are. Lost the plot on my questions there.
Definitely worth a bit more analysis on SUM for me now I think.

44% of the shares on issue to be precise mate. Also a huge factor here is a average growth rate of SUM over the last few years. They're growing faster than RYM was when their underlying profit was 24.5 cps and as mentioned above they also have the capacity to grow faster going forward with 7 years of banked land supply. Land supply shaping up as a key constraint for these companies going forward.
I hold and awaiting a re-confirmation of upward SP trend, (sustained three day break up through the 100 day MA) before taking a more fulsome position again.
Long term absolutely it is a no brainer but in the short term there are definitely institutions taking some money off the table at present as was readily apparent on Friday afternoon so I remain cautious for the short term.

[Baa_Baa]

The bounce Fri 21st off the 200MA was very positive, which is also the two year rising trend line, then the earnings upgrade boosted the SP through the 100MA and 50EMA, but leaked back down below both to close. Nevertheless, SUM is still in an impressive uptrend. The faithful may see this as good accumulation opportunities, one can't fault the FA and the TA is OK. This share seems closely aligned to the de-rigour moving averages, especially the 200MA providing consistent support. A solid multi-day breakdown through the 200MA would therefore signal trouble and a trend line breakdown, but at the moment that doesn't look as likely as the earnings upgrade sets the scene for some SP upside, one would think.

[Vaygor1]

Discl: hold SUM and bought some more at 4.86 ; Intended to buy as well some RYM, but for some reason nobody wanted to fill my offer.

44% of the shares on issue to be precise mate. Also a huge factor here is a average growth rate of SUM over the last few years. They're growing faster than RYM was when their underlying profit was 24.5 cps and as mentioned above they also have the capacity to grow faster going forward with 7 years of banked land supply. Land supply shaping up as a key constraint for these companies going forward.
I hold and awaiting a re-confirmation of upward SP trend, (sustained three day break up through the 100 day MA) before taking a more fulsome position again.
Long term absolutely it is a no brainer but in the short term there are definitely institutions taking some money off the table at present as was readily apparent on Friday afternoon so I remain cautious for the short term.

..... so I dipped my toe in the water and bought a small holding in SUM today at $4.75

Be interesting so see where the share price goes in the next few months from a TA viewpoint, but I'm very happy with the FA side of it.. insofar as I can now begin to trust SUM's figures now Nora Beluga (or what ever her name was) has been out of the picture for a measure of time.

In the event the SP drops further below $4.75 and in the absence of any official news, I will likely accumulate.... however I am still very conscious and wary of the residual culture left behind by the Snorlax. I wish SUM would drop her 'Four-time winner of Retirement Village of the Year' legacy... which was mentioned in SUM's recent guidance announcement. At the time they were dished out I could have purchased all those four awards myself with 1/2 a dozen hamster droppings stirred into a glass of Havelock North water.

[percy]

..... so I dipped my toe in the water and bought a small holding in SUM today at $4.75

Be interesting so see where the share price goes in the next few months from a TA viewpoint, but I'm very happy with the FA side of it.. insofar as I can now begin to trust SUM's figures now Nora Beluga (or what ever her name was) has been out of the picture for a measure of time.

In the event the SP drops further below $4.75 and in the absence of any official news, I will likely accumulate.... however I am still very conscious and wary of the residual culture left behind by the Snorlax. I wish SUM would drop her 'Four-time winner of Retirement Village of the Year' legacy... which was mentioned in SUM's recent guidance announcement. At the time they were dished out I could have purchased all those four awards myself with 1/2 a dozen hamster droppings stirred into a glass of Havelock North water.

Forget knocking "our Nora" and look at the strength of the board and management.
Like Ryman they have a very capable board and management.

[Joshuatree]

^^^^ Agree 100% mate.

No question Couta1 and his wife's vast experience in this sector gives them extremely valuable insights into this industry which I for one am extremely pleased he shares.

SUM have been growing faster than RYM since they listed and SUM have the best land bank...long term investors are extremely well positioned.

I have no idea what his experience is Roger other than that he is a care giver; maybe you can fill us in via your private emails channel as he never has made it clear and seems unlikely to ever do so. Be nice to be wrong there and for Couta to disclose his actual experience himself.