SUM - Summerset Group

[Bjauck]

I have changed my view on the future level of immigration since Trump went feral. I believe people will want to come to safe, clean and green, uncorrupt little ol N.Z. in their droves. Hundreds of thousands of them over the next few years, desperate to escape the madness that exists in much of the rest of the world.

(PDF file link) http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/fi...ecdjan2012.pdf
NZ Homicide rate is below that of the USA but is above that of Australia, England, Scandianvia and most of Europe. The incidence of (reported) Rape in NZ is above that of the USA, UK and Europe


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ted_death_rate
Road deaths/100,000 population: USA 10.6, NZ 6.0, UK 2.9, Australia 5.4, Germany 4.3


Clean and green: Maybe - Population density helps but NZ's policies are not cleaner or greener than those in many other countries.

Hugely supportive of medium term future house prices and development margins although we might see a slight housing correction this year I no longer think it will be deep or meaningful.

So far, it seems to be heading to a consolidating period rather than a deep correction.

[Beagle]

Bjauck, I tried clicking on your first link to have a look but it came up page not found. Looking at the link it appears to be a January 2012 report. The world has changed a LOT in the last five years but I agree the N.Z. police need to take a far harder stance against gangs, methamphetamine and policing needs to be seriously enhanced in Kaitaia, (the murder capital of N.Z.), which is somewhere I would never consider living.

Road deaths, more needs to be done regarding educating overseas tourists, more medium barriers and roading enhancements but some of the issue relates to N.Z. difficult and mountainous terrain and there will be no changing that.

Yes N.Z's low population density is a major attraction.

My contention remains however. According to BNZ economists there are presently approx. one million Kiwi's living overseas. Many parts of the world are now losing their relative attractiveness, in my opinion.
Augers well for continuing immigration and high level's of demand for housing stock which is broadly supportive of the real estate market and supportive of retirement companies obtaining premium pricing on their developments, i.e. development margins.
I also believe long term the penetration rate that Vaygor1 was referring too a while back will significantly expand as I believe there is increasing awareness amongst retiree's of the significant lifestyle benefits which village life confers.

Long term I think the retirement sector is a wonderful growth story and to exclude if entirely from one's portfolio you have to be of the view that real estate prices are in for a meaningful correction which will impact medium term development margins or feel that the stocks in the sector are all overpriced, (or both). I don't hold either view any more.
To me RYM seem fair value based on a underlying forward PE in the low 20's and SUM appear slightly underpriced based on a slightly lower underlying PE so I will hold SUM now for long term growth and wouldn't rule out doubling down if the result on 23 February and outlook comments are good. I don't have sufficient confidence in MET's track record to invest there.

[LAC]

Read through some of their reports couple of nights ago, SUM looks better value at this stage than RYM. Looking fwd to 23 Feb Both great to have though IMO.

[Raz]

I have changed my view on the future level of immigration since Trump went feral. I believe people will want to come to safe, clean and green, uncorrupt little ol N.Z. in their droves. Hundreds of thousands of them over the next few years, desperate to escape the madness that exists in much of the rest of the world. Hugely supportive of medium term future house prices and development margins although we might see a slight housing correction this year I no longer think it will be deep or meaningful.

I understand your point of view Roger however have you considered the overriding factor will be government policy and in turn will be effected by political sway of the population not just demand to come here. I sense this is changing in little old NZ as well. Note the PR pieces promoting migration and its benefits just this week in the herald which suggest to me there is a perceived need to lobby the population to continue as is.

I think most expats come back at semi retirement age, they may wish to come back earlier however unless the careers opportunities are available/comparable in nature they tend to stay where they are.

Long term still a great strategy this sector however not so sure its "a sure thing" on the immigration policy, medium term as a rational for this.

[Beagle]

Thanks for your post RAZ. Yes absolutely as posted previously I think if Winston Peters is influential in any new possible alliance later this year some immigration changes could be forthcoming but I don't think it'll be anything like Donald Trumps bombshell. As you suggest, the long term tailwinds are very attractive in this sector. Technically she's just popped up through the 100 day MA so looking good as we head towards the annual report in three weeks time.

[Bjauck]

Bjauck, I tried clicking on your first link to have a look but it came up page not found. Looking at the link it appears to be a January 2012 report. The world has changed a LOT in the last five years but I agree the N.Z. police need to take a far harder stance against gangs, methamphetamine and policing needs to be seriously enhanced in Kaitaia, (the murder capital of N.Z.), which is somewhere I would never consider living.

Fixed http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/fi...ecdjan2012.pdf
The World is always changing, I would not necessarily expect changes since 2012 to be in NZ's favour. However I cannot (quickly) find more recent comparative statistics. Tax cuts, population increases, housing pressures etc all have an effect on the incidence of crime and the ability to cope with crime.

Road deaths, more needs to be done regarding educating overseas tourists, more medium barriers and roading enhancements but some of the issue relates to N.Z. difficult and mountainous terrain and there will be no changing that.

Some countries and regions are naturally unsafe. Educating NZ drivers, road quality, age of cars, enforcement etc are all important too.

Yes N.Z's low population density is a major attraction.

Depends on interests....if you like wide access to cultural activities, cultural variety, city life, etc.

My contention remains however. According to BNZ economists there are presently approx. one million Kiwi's living overseas. Many parts of the world are now losing their relative attractiveness, in my opinion.

Fair enough - no room for complacency imo and in some spheres NZ may be deteriorating but less rapidly than other countries :o.... Comparative economic performance plays a big part especially for returning NZers. NZ has to ensure its health system, infrastructure and housing can cope with an increasing population and minimise any populist backlash.

Augers well for continuing immigration and high level's of demand for housing stock which is broadly supportive of the real estate market and supportive of retirement companies obtaining premium pricing on their developments, i.e. development margins.
I also believe long term the penetration rate that Vaygor1 was referring too a while back will significantly expand as I believe there is increasing awareness amongst retiree's of the significant lifestyle benefits which village life confers.

Long term I think the retirement sector is a wonderful growth story and to exclude if entirely from one's portfolio you have to be of the view that real estate prices are in for a meaningful correction which will impact medium term development margins or feel that the stocks in the sector are all overpriced, (or both). I don't hold either view any more.
To me RYM seem fair value based on a underlying forward PE in the low 20's and SUM appear slightly underpriced based on a slightly lower underlying PE so I will hold SUM now for long term growth and wouldn't rule out doubling down if the result on 23 February and outlook comments are good. I don't have sufficient confidence in MET's track record to invest there.

Agree except in respect to MET, as I have a shareholding.

[Beagle]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/auckla...ition-b-199094

The average sale price in January of $913,938 edged up from $913,709 in December last year, and was 13% ahead of January last year, Barfoot said in a statement. The median price of $846,500 advanced 0.8% from December and was 11% higher than January last year.

No worries.

[couta1]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/auckla...ition-b-199094

The average sale price in January of $913,938 edged up from $913,709 in December last year, and was 13% ahead of January last year, Barfoot said in a statement. The median price of $846,500 advanced 0.8% from December and was 11% higher than January last year.

No worries.

Shares look cheap at todays price when measured against the expected upcoming result ,which will be solid. Must be due for a run up soon I'd say.

[Beagle]

Shares look cheap at todays price when measured against the expected upcoming result ,which will be solid. Must be due for a run up soon I'd say.

I think so mate. Am thinking about doubling down on this one in the lead up to the result...and one starting with A .... I have a fairly modest position in both at this point to be honest.

[winner69]

I think so mate. Am thinking about doubling down on this one in the lead up to the result...and one starting with A .... I have a fairly modest position in both at this point to be honest.

Hey t_j - no Arvida share price on a roll seeing couts and rogie have been buying