SUM - Summerset Group

[winner69]

Jeez Roger Rampjet - $38 in 2022 has a good ring to it

I'd be happy with $9 by Christmas - where it should be - and $20 by 2020 (that sounds like a slogan)

Love that Rampjet tag - but not really applicable to you.

[Food4Thought]

Good stuff then, settle back in your finest armchair and enjoy the show.

How's this for starters. What possible share price in five years time using actual results for the last five years of a compound average growth rate of 48% per annum assuming SUM stay at the same current modest PE for such a strong growth company. EPS 25.5 cps x 1.48 x 1.48 x 1.48 x 1.48 x 1.48 = $1.81 EPS in 2022. Impossible you might say, perhaps not, they have after all grown EPS at exactly that average rate compounding for the last 5 years.
Stock currently trades at $5.40 on 25.5 cps underlying = PE of 21 times.

21 times $1.81 = $38 share price in 2022. Potentially SUM could increase in value by as much as seven times in the next five years. Could SUM become the next greatest wealth creator on the NZX and follow in the footsteps of RYM ?

Of course my modelling suggests growth will slow to more normal rates similar to RYM at some stage in the next few years but you never know. Pays to invest in stocks with heaps of potential.

How are you enjoying the show so far ?

This is my entertainment. (well one form as well as some exercise and work etc etc)

So excited as in the past other shares I invested in went 2-6+ times their buy price, easy ( SEK, BGR, KMD, AIR, RYM, THL, AIA, 42Below, GXH, some others) (don't worry, I also made some expensive lessons with others that did the reverse... yet was good to painfully study their pro's and cons once I burnt myself nicely (PPL, RAK, NZO, RUB).

If only I held a lot of them for more time and as my non technical pictures showed them to swing. I would be able to buy a house outright, no questions asked. A small modest one in a small town somewhere where the prices haven't gone fruit loop. Time is a valueable lesson and hold onto your gut feelings. Currently in a amazing situation with SUM and the horizon looks rosey

Ilovethisshow.

[Snow Leopard]

I reckon $6 by next New Years would be a fair price for this.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: I dug out the model I did in 2013 and I find that actual performance has exceeded expectations over the last three years.

[troyvdh]

Sorry guys...the 87 crash..I lost 30k...The above posts I seen the before....before the 87 crash...i.e..."prices should be"... blah blah.
This to me is a warning sign....
In 86 I remember going to see R Jones in Methven...folk were asking questions like..."my son needs this amount of money for this"...or "my son wants a new MTB..should I sell now or hold o. for a higher price".
Paper tiger..im actually surprised that you are partaking in the exercise of predicting where a share price will be.troy

[allfromacell]

Sorry guys...the 87 crash..I lost 30k...The above posts I seen the before....before the 87 crash...i.e..."prices should be"... blah blah.
This to me is a warning sign....
In 86 I remember going to see R Jones in Methven...folk were asking questions like..."my son needs this amount of money for this"...or "my son wants a new MTB..should I sell now or hold o. for a higher price".
Paper tiger..im actually surprised that you are partaking in the exercise of predicting where a share price will be.troy

I love the quote by Warren B "Price Is What You Pay, Value Is What You Get”. There is nothing wrong with looking at a business and assigning a value to it, then taking that model and trying to predict its future value... This is after all, what good investing is about.

[Snow Leopard]

...Paper tiger..im actually surprised that you are partaking in the exercise of predicting where a share price will be.troy

and I am very surprised that you interpret that as a prediction of future share price when it is obviously a statement of expected value for a definite future time.

It reads, for the hard of reading, if the share price is $6 at 1-Jan-17 then the price will inline with my valuation for that same time. Implicit in that statement is that the further away from that $6 at that time will define the degree by which the price under or overvalues the share.

Strange, as it may seem I do not believe that anyone is actually really predicting the share price.

I guess you see what you want to see eh!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[troyvdh]

Ok ...I have 4 k shares in RYM and SUM.....what about you guys

[allfromacell]

Ok ...I have 4 k shares in RYM and SUM.....what about you guys

The amount is not so relevant... I prefer to use a % of total portfolio, SUM is currently 25% of my portfolio. I'm much younger therefore don't mind having a much higher risk tolerance.

[JoeGrogan]

The amount is not so relevant... I prefer to use a % of total portfolio, SUM is currently 25% of my portfolio. I'm much younger therefore don't mind having a much higher risk tolerance.

Yeah i'm in the same boat, SUM is currently about 22% of my portfolio.

[LAC]

SUM about 33% of mine, RYM has been brought down to under 10% atm. Will offset this when the time is right. I would like to have +-40% in the retirement sector. These are the only 2 I plan to invest in though.