SUM - Summerset Group

[LAC]

I keep looking at SUM as a potential investment, and keep deciding "not yet, but let's watch a bit longer". What is off-putting as far as investing in SUM is concerned is the apparent eps of 66 cps against the total dividend for the year of 7.7 cps unimputed. I want to at least do better than simple bank rates, so on that basis SUM is only worth $2.20 to me. Over the past 12 months there has been a drop in SP of $0.70, so there isn't even the prospect of decent capital gain to make it a worthwhile investment.

Maybe the longer term investors in this company can explain what it is I am missing.

I think it's best to read what the business model actually is, amazing model IMO. You cant compare this to bank TD's because the divies are negligible but is good picking them up every now and again. The capital gain is what this stock is for, if they keep building with funds from the previous development then we are all winners. Retirement sector for me is just long term and nothing else, I will sell this at 65 years when I retire

[Snow Leopard]

International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) require property companies to revalue their portfolio each year to current market value.
IFRS reported profit includes all property revaluations and does not represent the underlying cash earnings of the business. This measure underlying earnings, referred to by all the retirement village operators is the measure all professional analysts use to compare the earnings across the sector because this measure excludes the annual property revaluation but includes all cash earnings from license to occupy resales, new unit sales and the development margin thereon and any profit from the operations of the villages....

Underlying earnings has 4 main components:
1 - The current assessed value of a new units sold - the cost of those units;
2 - The current assessed value of resold units - the previous assessed value of those units when last sold or resold, however many years ago that was;
3 - The profit/loss from operating the villages and providing services;
4 - Anything else.

Later the same day...

For SUM for 2016 the underlying earnings numbers for a total of $56.6M were:
1 - $39.0M
2 - $15.4M
3 & 4 - $2.2M
or mostly revaluation gains.

this compares with the NPAT total of $145.5M of which only $2.0M is non-revaluation profits.

Now for the really good bit...

For SUM for 2016 there was a net operating cash inflow of $192.6M, an even bigger number than that NPAT profit.


Interestingly one element of the cash flow is:
Receipts for residents' loans - $261M8;
which is, as near as makes no difference, also the current assessed value of those units sold and resold (as in items 1 & 2) up top.

That makes one ponder. Which came first, the sale or the valuation?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[JoeGrogan]

Underlying earnings has 4 main components:
1 - The current assessed value of a new units sold - the cost of those units;
2 - The current assessed value of resold units - the previous assessed value of those units when last sold or resold, however many years ago that was;
3 - The profit/loss from operating the villages and providing services;
4 - Anything else.

Later the same day...

For SUM for 2016 the underlying earnings numbers for a total of $56.6M were:
1 - $39.0M
2 - $15.4M
3 & 4 - $2.2M
or mostly revaluation gains.

this compares with the NPAT total of $145.5M of which only $2.0M is non-revaluation profits.

Now for the really good bit...

For SUM for 2016 there was a net operating cash inflow of $192.6M, an even bigger number than that NPAT profit.


Interestingly one element of the cash flow is:
Receipts for residents' loans - $261M8;
which is, as near as makes no difference, also the current assessed value of those units sold and resold (as in items 1 & 2) up top.

That makes one ponder. Which came first, the sale or the valuation?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

5 year CAGR of 35% for net operating cash flow is pretty damn attractive, and something i negligently failed to consider when comparing other companies in the sector.

[Joshuatree]

As initially mentioned, it was not so much of discussion around SUM's share price (or what is driving it etc), but rather what looked to be contradictory posts in a very short period of time, followed by a claim that looked to be questionable.

I'll re-clarify my clarification... it could have been interpreted as a personal attack, although I did not intend it to be, rather a 'point of order' (I was admitting it may have looked like it was)

I think we should all just put the 'issue' behind us, and I do respect every member, although it would be nice if we all (including myself) could be more careful and consider our posts before posting, which would lift the quality of posts (as others have mentioned).

Thanks,
TJ

Hear hear well said.
Im watching and waiting for an opp to buy my first shares in this company when there is a clear turn around. Good luck all.

[Onion]

I keep looking at SUM as a potential investment, and keep deciding "not yet, but let's watch a bit longer". What is off-putting as far as investing in SUM is concerned is the apparent eps of 66 cps against the total dividend for the year of 7.7 cps unimputed. I want to at least do better than simple bank rates, so on that basis SUM is only worth $2.20 to me. Over the past 12 months there has been a drop in SP of $0.70, so there isn't even the prospect of decent capital gain to make it a worthwhile investment.

Maybe the longer term investors in this company can explain what it is I am missing.

I prefer that SUM reinvest earnings to support growth. SUM is a growth story at present. They have all that banked land to develop. If they ultimately stop developing new opportunities THEN they can start paying larger dividends. Until then I'm happy for the SP to give me the long term return.

[Jantar]

...., I will sell this at 65 years when I retire

65 for me is next year. But retirement is still over 2 years away. I have a couple of goals I need to finish first.

[JoeGrogan]

Will be interesting If support fails at roughly 4.80

Edit: can't seem to attach image Attachment 8863

[Beagle]

Joshuatree - How do you define a clear turn around ?

[BlackPeter]

Will be interesting If support fails at roughly 4.80

Edit: can't seem to attach image Attachment 8863

Does not look that way - lots of support above 480 but no sellers left. Pity ... my bid is (a small) part of the support - raise it or hope for another bounce?

[JoeGrogan]

Does not look that way - lots of support above 480 but no sellers left. Pity ... my bid is (a small) part of the support - raise it or hope for another bounce?

Yeah i had my order at 482 yesterday, then moved it up at the end of the day when i noticed that bid of 40,000 or so shares. Will be interesting to see see how many sellers are going to appear now that its hit 4.94