SUM - Summerset Group

[couta1]

The other way round for me.
Sold my RYM for SUM more

Ryman will struggle to hit their 15% target over the coming year, SUM others won't.

[jmsnz]

Ryman will struggle to hit their 15% target over the coming year, SUM others won't.

Couta1,

Why do you say that?
What information do you have to support that assertion?

The 15% growth target they have long held, and met, seems to be a key focus for them, I can't imagine the market would react kindly if they missed it by a significant margin. I certainly don't know that they will hit that target, but history would suggest they will so genuinely interested in why you are so adamant they won't.

[couta1]

Couta1,

Why do you say that?
What information do you have to support that assertion?

The 15% growth target they have long held, and met, seems to be a key focus for them, I can't imagine the market would react kindly if they missed it by a significant margin. I certainly don't know that they will hit that target, but history would suggest they will so genuinely interested in why you are so adamant they won't.

They missed it in the year just gone and although they have a large pipeline of projects, those projects won't contribute enough over the next year to ensure them hitting or exceeding the 15% growth target IMO.However the year following that, now that's another story, but DYOR.

[trader_jackson]

They missed it in the year just gone and although they have a large pipeline of projects, those projects won't contribute enough over the next year to ensure them hitting or exceeding the 15% growth target IMO.However the year following that, now that's another story, but DYOR.

Have you ever considered that SUM other companies may also not hit their target build rates?
The market clear has...

[percy]

Have you ever considered that SUM other companies may also not hit their target build rates?
The market clear has...

With both RYM and SUM having design,and development team inhouse, I would expect on average they are most probably likely to exceed their build rate projections,and "score" higher development margins than others in the sector.

[trader_jackson]

With both RYM and SUM having design,and development team inhouse, I would expect on average they are most probably likely to exceed their build rate projections,and "score" higher development margins than others in the sector.

Agree with the higher development margins, not so sure about exceeding build rate projections, at least in the coming year or two

[percy]

Agree with the higher development margins, not so sure about exceeding build rate projections, at least in the coming year or two

What's a year or two, when the ground work has been laid, for upward trajectory to move up into yet another higher gear.
Gaining momemtum,however the build rate will be lucky to keep up with the demand,as each week around 50 seniors decide to make a retirement village their new home.There are now 37,000 New Zealanders living in retirement villages.
The huge wall of seniors is increasing rapidly, providing huge tailwinds for the sector.
Some in the sector have a proven model, which means they are "well positioned," while others have some catching up to do.

[trader_jackson]

What's a year or two, when the ground work has been laid, for upward trajectory to move up into yet another higher gear.
Gaining momemtum,however the build rate will be lucky to keep up with the demand,as each week around 50 seniors decide to make a retirement village their new home.There are now 37,000 New Zealanders living in retirement villages.
The huge wall of seniors is increasing rapidly, providing huge tailwinds for the sector.
Some in the sector have a proven model, which means they are "well positioned," while others have some catching up to do.

Totally agree... and with an aging population, more care/hospital like services/beds will be required, and sum operators are better positioned than others, regarding full continuum of care. However, regarding summerset, in the short term, I believe there is a chance targets could be missed, and the market is clearly pricing this in. I am nearly tempted to grab SUM myself, and might 'force' myself to if it gets to an even more reasonable price, like the low $4... whether it goes that low is another question.

[Beagle]

Please Sir, can I have SUM more (Oliver Twist), sorry couldn't help myself However the analogy is a good one. For a lot of lonely old people this is a needs based business and due to population demographics, has tremendous tailwinds for the next 20-25 years. The average forward PE of the S&P 500 is 18, (source CNBC commentator this morning). The forward PE of this company that's grown at an average of 48% per annum since listing is by my reckoning just 14.8 at $4.73. Hmmm...not long until I do an Oliver Twist myself...

[silu]

With a market growing like this I'm happy to have cornerstone holdings in most Aged Care Providers and buying more on short term weakness. My unofficial plan is to hold on to these holdings until I'm retired myself. It's a very simplistic view but I can see a lot of babyboomers retiring into a retirement village over the next decade.
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