SUM - Summerset Group

[Beagle]

... and follow the red dotted line ....

Attachment 8900

Obviously - the trend is your friend until the bend at the end, but so far it looks like it is bouncing nicely at the lower boundary. Looks like an unbroken uptrend to me.

Picture says a thousand words. I am sure SUM management are working extremely hard to face the challenges that lie ahead. Long term the demographics make for a compelling investment case.

[Entrep]

... and follow the red dotted line ....

Attachment 8900

Obviously - the trend is your friend until the bend at the end, but so far it looks like it is bouncing nicely at the lower boundary. Looks like an unbroken uptrend to me.

Aren't trend lines meant to be straight? That's also a pretty thick line. I added a new one. Looks broke to me

[Baa_Baa]

Aren't trend lines meant to be straight? That's also a pretty thick line. I added a new one. Looks broke to me

Log scale it is. Not catastrophic but definitely below the long term rising trend line i.e. a short term down trend is in play

[winner69]

Long term regression channel looks like this (sorry not a log scale and the top and bottom channels are hand drawn and not calculated. I could do the calculation see how many std devs away the highs and lows are from the regression line but the chart (long term) is so compelling its not worth the effort)

I have also taken the liberty not to stretch the channel lines to include the period it below it - but as fundamentals were so strong at that time that was only a blip and normal activity resumed. And the time it was above it probably was an euphoric time and as we know euphoric people don't recognise euphoria when they see it

[Beagle]

Long term regression channel looks like this (sorry not a log scale and the top and bottom channels are hand drawn and not calculated. I could do the calculation see how many std devs away the highs and lows are from the regression line but the chart (long term) is so compelling its not worth the effort)

I have also taken the liberty not to stretch the channel lines to include the period it was below it - but as fundamentals so strong at that time that was only a blip and normal activity resumed.

Thanks mate. When you look at that, it looks like a compelling buy at some stage pretty soon doesn't it ! Fundamentally its never been cheaper on a forward PE basis since it listed.

[percy]

Another week, and another 50 seniors will decide to make a retirement village their new home.
We wish them,and like those last week,and those next week, and every week in the future, we wish them well.

[BlackPeter]

Aren't trend lines meant to be straight? That's also a pretty thick line. I added a new one. Looks broke to me

Hmm - not my fault if you add lines which look broke to you . Unless you like it broken, otherwise you better shift the right end of your line one mm down ! In this case it looks again like a perfect uptrend ...

And no - trend lines are not supposed to be straight, though the red line is (on a linear scale). Some people draw trend lines on a logarithmic scale (turning trend lines into hyperbolas if you linearise the scale) ... and if you look at the somewhat bent lines on my graph - they are MA's - hardly ever straight but quite legitimate trend indicators.

Anyway - time will tell how the trend develops, whatever shape or scale you choose to use.

Discl: happy holder

[Joshuatree]

[QUOTE=Joshuatree;668226]I make it 4,216,732 shares sold since the arguable peak on 11/4/ ; some may say the downtrend started in march. While that number is tiny compared with the mkt cap of re $1 billion its still worth noting. Quite a lot of 100 to 200 thousand vol selling into the mkt some days as the price drops. What does this mean ; i don't really know but its int.

Be nice to see a notice soon of a major shareholder ceasing to be a major holder/reducing holdings etc.That could explain things. Been no SSH notices going back to jan on NZX(thats as far as they go on NZX) , very stable seemingly. Tried to put % holdings in but too much clutter.

TOP 20 SHAREHOLDERS AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2016

1. 1 New Zealand Central Securities Depository Limited
2. 2 FNZ Custodians Limited
3. 3 Custodial Services Limited
4. 4 Forsyth Barr Custodians Ltd
5. 5 Custodial Services Limited
6. 6 Summerset LTI Trustee Limited
7. 7 Custodial Services Limited
8. 8 Investment Custodial Services Limited
9. 9 Custodial Services Limited
10. 10 Custodial Services Limited
11. 11 JBWERE (NZ) Nominees Limited
12. 12 Paul Stanley Morris & Clive Stephen Morris
13. 13 Custodial Services Limited
14. 14 BNP Paribas Nominees Pty Ltd
15. 15 New Zealand Depository Nominee Limited
16. 16 ASB Nominees Limited
17. 17 PT Booster Investments Nominees Limited
18. 18 FNZ Custodians Limited
19. 19 Motutapu Investments Limited
20. 20 Custodial Services Limited

[COLOR=rgb(33.300000%, 33.500000%, 33.200000%)]RANK SHAREHOLDER[/COLOR]
1 Tea Custodians Limited
2 HSBC Nominees (New Zealand) Limited
3 JPMorgan Chase Bank
4 National Nominees New Zealand Limited
5 New Zealand Superannuation Fund Nominees Limited
6 Citibank Nominees (NZ) Limited
7 HSBC Nominees (New Zealand) Limited
8 Cogent Nominees Limited
9 Accident Compensation Corporation
10 Guardian Nominees No2 Limited

]

[macduffy]

Top 20 shareholders doesn't tell us anything when they're all nominee companies! Absence of SSH notices would indicate that no major shareholders are selling out/reducing, although such notices are notoriously slow to appear in the NZ market.

[Joshuatree]

I'm pretty ignorant there re time frames of reporting SSH except when one goes over or under 5% don't they have to announce straight away?