SUM - Summerset Group

[Beagle]

Well the world hasn't ended, life goes on and needs based business's will keep meeting those needs which are growing rapidly due to the extremely favourable population demographics. A more profitable exercise might be to compare the underlying PE of all the operators and calculate the PEG rate.
I am sure Jascinda will ban foreign buyers from buying existing homes but lets think about that for a minute...it doesn't seem to have had any impact in Australia so why should it be any different here...
Happy to hold for long term growth and currently trading on very compelling fundamental's.

[Bjauck]

...
I am sure Jascinda will ban foreign buyers from buying existing homes but lets think about that for a minute...it doesn't seem to have had any impact in Australia so why should it be any different here...

Introduction of curbs to negative gearing is the hot topic in Australia. So perhaps a restriction of sales of existing homes to NZ residents combined with phased in negative gearing restrictions could have an impact. However these reforms should have been intrcodued years or decade ago and not now, when the market is showing signs of cooling anyway. Perhaps introducing those reforms now could risk a more precipitous fall in prices - although the lack of supply of affordable new dwellings (in Auckland) may reduce the risk of that.

[Beagle]

I can remember when you weren't allowed to offset losses from rental properties and could only carry them forward to offset against depreciation recovered.
Now days we don't even have depreciation on buildings, which is clearly nonsense as they do indeed wear out, building code means they're designed to last 50 years, so 2% depreciation makes sense. I can also remember national superannuation surtax but I am sure Winston won't have a bar of that.
Forward PE for SUM has retrenched already to half its historic rate of the late 20's so I think a worst case scenario is pretty much already priced in.
SP has declined around 10% from a year ago despite earnings increasing over 50%. Long term the outstanding growth of this sector and SUM's demonstrated ability to grow earnings at a fast pace augers extremely well for patient long term holders as does the current very low PE, pretty much priced on a PE basis at the same level as RYM was in the depths of the GFC. I don't think that makes sense in the long term so provided Jascinda's new regime takes a pragmatic common sense approach to managing the economy the current price presents as quite an opportunity in my opinion.
Disc: Topped up with SUM more

[trader_jackson]

I think ARV is about 1.2, crazy that OCA is now the cheapest at 1.06, after falling to its current 98 cents (market must be worried about immigration)
And yes, I would have thought RYM would have been hardest hit, followed by SUM - I suppose RYM's exposure to aussie is helping it.

Interesting: so RYM did fall the most today after all - bit weird that ARV was hit as hard as it was, must be on (potentially overblown) concerns regarding immigration

ARV
$1.180 (3.3%)

MET
$5.880 (2.5%)

OCA
$1.010 (2.9%)

RYM
$9.190 (4.1%)

SUM
$4.960 (2.4%)

[Lewylewylewy]

I think SUMs bargain price is just because people want to see a full year's activity in the current property climate before they feel confident again. All going well, next year SUMs SP will boom.

[King1212]

Interesting: so RYM did fall the most today after all - bit weird that ARV was hit as hard as it was, must be on (potentially overblown) concerns regarding immigration

ARV
$1.180 (3.3%)

MET
$5.880 (2.5%)

OCA
$1.010 (2.9%)

RYM
$9.190 (4.1%)

SUM
$4.960 (2.4%)

why immigration got to do with the retirement sector? I can understand property sector but....I don't think immigration will have any effects on retirement sector.

aging kiwis are increasing...no matter what people will get old n need to retire. Regarding the staff, most of staff...already got PR due to booming nursing and healthcare sector couple years ago.

most oldies have assets....n money...

[ratkin]

Difficult to see much short term upside. Headwinds instead of tailwinds.

[troyvdh]

Dear King...Thankyou for that post...why some folk go on about property prices baffles me...like you say ...folk need to retire.
There are sadly some seasoned posters here who still continue to state that the property mkt ....blah blah...will effect ....as you say "no matter what"...thanks again troy

[Beagle]

Difficult to see much short term upside. Headwinds instead of tailwinds.

Lots of people felt the same way in the depths of the GFC when RYM's PE was about 12-13 where SUM's forward PE is now.

[bull....]

big surprise next week on min wage levels..... wow people be happy maybe not retirement co,s