SUM - Summerset Group

[trader_jackson]

Still working on 40 cps underlying earnings in my model for Dec 17 so shares are trading on a current year PE of just 12 and given the strong long term prevailing demographic tailwinds I think all the bearish news is priced in. Didn't notice any radical plan to dramatically reduce immigration so I'm expecting business as usual for this well managed growth company over the years ahead.

Amazing to think you can buy a well managed company with an average five year, (soon to be six year) growth rate of 48% on a PE of just 12 !! That's a PEG ratio of just 0.25 !
I think talk of a major decline in house prices is just that, "Talk". Change of Govt, wage rate increases and slower house price growth all now surely fully priced in with that super low PE for this sector, onward and upward from here, no worries

I think you might be a tad optimistic, but I do agree that this whole "Talk" of huge sweeping changes that are really going to kill retirement village operators - isn't going to have the bigly negative impacts people thought (I remember everyone saying how the dow was going to drop 10% if Trump got in, and brexit would immediately throw UK economy into recession - both are much, much bigger changes than what has happened in NZ, well brexit at least, and yet neither of them have proved to be right, not even remotely right actually - they were fake news folks! so DYOR)

On another note, interesting to see RYM fell the most again, for the 2nd day in a row - sort of fulfilling my view that those with the highest book value to price would get hit the hardest (although I admit this hasn't been quite perfect, nor has it been a long period of time to fairly measure!)

[Xerof]

Didn't notice any radical plan to dramatically reduce immigration

Nor did I. Overseas students enrolling in pathetically impracticable tuition on the promise of residency isn't going to worry SUM of us. Mind you I gave this the kiss of death a few weeks ago, calling $6 by Xmas. Luckily I didn't say which Xmas

[JeremyALD]

Nor did I. Overseas students enrolling in pathetically impracticable tuition on the promise of residency isn't going to worry SUM of us. Mind you I gave this the kiss of death a few weeks ago, calling $6 by Xmas. Luckily I didn't say which Xmas

This share seems to bounce up to $5.50ish then drop back to $4.50ish every three months or so. Back into the cycle we go.

[Snow Leopard]

Typically quixotic, unless you know this isn't going lower. Do you ... know? Apart from 'it all'. Far be it from me to elaborate on the importance of a stock or a sector that succumbs to its 200 DMA, So quickly.

I dislike DMA and much prefer EMA, like the linear price axis they are a remnant of the days before modern calculating machines and there is no excuse for using them now that we are in the Century of the Anchovy.

But the 200 DMA has now been crossed & recrossed 23 times (I counted them) in the last year, which is because the SP is going up and down like a gooseberry in a lift (1:55 onwards) setting lower highs and higher lows in the process, a condition known by the chartists, apparently, as a wedgie.

As, so far, we do not have a break from tradition with either a lower low or crossing the underside boundary of the wedgie thing then all I fail to see the significance of the crossing of one particular inappropriately chosen squiggly line.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Lewylewylewy]

I'm curious if anyone on ST is buying at these prices?

[oldtech]

I would like to, but alas my bank balance is looking rather sad at the moment after a bit of a spending spree on ATM and OCA.

[Jantar]

I bought a few at $4.86 on opening yesterday just to watch it plummet to $4.82 within a very short period.

[King1212]

I would avoid all property and retirement stocks at the moment. I believe the property market is cooling off and will go down. With today news on herald, couple thousand apartments will be available next couple years and Kiwibuild program.

That is me....I bought in SML...with revenue around 756M and market cap of less than 1.4B....plenty of room to grow.

[LAC]

I'm curious if anyone on ST is buying at these prices?

Dont think they its hit the bottom yet, but I will def be buying more this week or next. I plan to hold for 20+ years though so the property cooling off isnt a major concern for me. There will be a number of oldies wanting a nice retirement home in the years to come

[Brain]

I dislike DMA and much prefer EMA, like the linear price axis they are a remnant of the days before modern calculating machines and there is no excuse for using them now that we are in the Century of the Anchovy.

But the 200 DMA has now been crossed & recrossed 23 times (I counted them) in the last year, which is because the SP is going up and down like a gooseberry in a lift (1:55 onwards) setting lower highs and higher lows in the process, a condition known by the chartists, apparently, as a wedgie.

As, so far, we do not have a break from tradition with either a lower low or crossing the underside boundary of the wedgie thing then all I fail to see the significance of the crossing of one particular inappropriately chosen squiggly line.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I understand that Pythagoras preferred to use SQRT(DMA^2 +EMA ^2) for predicting the price of grain and olive oil. I am sure it worked well for him.