SUM - Summerset Group

[tobo]

Do their "sales" figures occur at occupation/settlement or (potentially earlier) when signed agreements occur?

[JeremyALD]

I struggle to see how a profit upgrade is signalling they will not make the target, but at any rate market doesn't seem fussed.

[BlackPeter]

Just an update:

I did get in the meantime a friendly response from SUM's share holder relations (i.e. they are fast). I don't want to copy the email without the approval of the author, but the essence is: It sounds like they did build all the units they planned to in the last year (i.e. I assume the 450) - and the average time to sell and settle them is between 3 and 4 months. The Q3 announcement (450 on target) was purely related to units delivered (not sold and settled). They do acknowledge that they could do better in future to distinguish between units delivered and units sold and settled.

Based on this info I assume we can relax - and hope that they distinguish in future announcements between "build" and "sold and settled" in their announcements. Expect a good Q1/2018 (though obviously the 3 to 4 months from deliver to sell is a moving window as well)

Ah yes - and they don't fail to point out that the updated profit guidance stands ;

[peat]

lol Percy
Well I was expecting some negative news about now (although the market doesnt seem to have reacted negatively as yet - if it will)

We've clearly gotten over the fake downside breakout of the triangle that lasted a whole year (refer post 5793) and moved into an upside breakout and whats more this is composed of a 5 wave (impulsive) structure that would now appear to be completed.
Hence it is perfectly normal for a corrective phase to take place as indicated by the dotted lines
How far down the a-b-c pattern will extend is not known but the dotted lines indicate something typical.

The impulsive pattern (bullish) would be negated by a drop below wave 1 eg $4.80

Also supporting the bullish view is that there was convergence (not divergence ) in the recent 5th wave high on the RSI indicator.
SUM08-01-2017.JPG

[freddagg]

Just an update:

I did get in the meantime a friendly response from SUM's share holder relations (i.e. they are fast). I don't want to copy the email without the approval of the author, but the essence is: It sounds like they did build all the units they planned to in the last year (i.e. I assume the 450) - and the average time to sell and settle them is between 3 and 4 months. The Q3 announcement (450 on target) was purely related to units delivered (not sold and settled). They do acknowledge that they could do better in future to distinguish between units delivered and units sold and settled.

Based on this info I assume we can relax - and hope that they distinguish in future announcements between "build" and "sold and settled" in their announcements. Expect a good Q1/2005 (though obviously the 3 to 4 months from deliver to sell is a moving window as well)

Ah yes - and they don't fail to point out that the updated profit guidance stands ;

Thanks for finding that out BP

[Beagle]

Confirming what BP just said. I just rang Scott Scoullar CFO and discussed the situation. His mobile faded in and out a bit but here's what I gathered.
1. Company was well aware of the number of new sales it anticipated would be settled by 31 December 2017 when issuing profit guidance on 19 December.
2. They don't book a sale until settlement has been effected.
3. There were a large number of units in Ellerslie and Hobsonville that were completed in the period that had not settled, timing difference.
4. Time between contract deposit and settlement is typically about 100 days, has moved out about 5 days in Auckland only.'
5. Getting acceptable quality contractors in Auckland remains a challenge irrespective of price, price pressure remains.

I would anticipate based on what was discussed that Q1 FY18 should see a higher than usual number of sales.
Scott confirmed they would look to improve their clarity (around deliveries and sales) in the future.

[Baa_Baa]

Just an update: ... and hope that they distinguish in future announcements between "build" and "sold and settled" in their announcements.

Thanks for the update BP. I think that breakdown of numbers would help their reporting, and forecasting. I would like to see:

- Building (in construction)
- Built (completed compliance signed off)
- Sales pipeline (prospective sales)
- Sold (deal signed)
- Settled (payment made).

Forecast and reported over time.

Wishful thinking?

[winner69]

I struggle to see how a profit upgrade is signalling they will not make the target, but at any rate market doesn't seem fussed.

One needs to understand corporate speak ..... timing of announcements ....read between the lines ...and think about what’s not being said.

Pre-Xmas profit upgrade wasn’t really necessary under disclosure rules so why make an announcement (when they already knew the sales numbers) etc etc etc

[percy]

Just an update:

I did get in the meantime a friendly response from SUM's share holder relations (i.e. they are fast). I don't want to copy the email without the approval of the author, but the essence is: It sounds like they did build all the units they planned to in the last year (i.e. I assume the 450) - and the average time to sell and settle them is between 3 and 4 months. The Q3 announcement (450 on target) was purely related to units delivered (not sold and settled). They do acknowledge that they could do better in future to distinguish between units delivered and units sold and settled.

Based on this info I assume we can relax - and hope that they distinguish in future announcements between "build" and "sold and settled" in their announcements. Expect a good Q1/2005 (though obviously the 3 to 4 months from deliver to sell is a moving window as well)

Ah yes - and they don't fail to point out that the updated profit guidance stands ;

BP.Thank you for contacting the company and sharing.

[winner69]

Good stuff BP and Beagle

They could keep the same number and forecast 450 sales in 2018 ...that be a 18% increase on 2017

Good eh

Share price over $6 soon and when punters see numbers like $200m real profit it might head to $7


and Ryman will be $14 by then to keep things in order