Hmmm...wonder how the Couta 50-55% relativity theory is going today. Yeah...Nah, must be just a temporary aberration...forget it.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
My investment in this great company keeps me happy. But I heard through talk back there were some retirement villages that only let their patients shower twice a week and get a sponge down for the remainder even if they soil themselves? Any idea why people can’t have a shower more than twice a week?
Quite simply, caregiver workload ratios, there just isn't enough time in their work schedules to shower people more often. Of course this only applies to those who can't shower themselves, many in the rest home sections shower more often. PS-Normal carer to resident ratios are 1:10 in resthome and 1:5 in hospital section.
Hmmm...wonder how the Couta 50-55% relativity theory is going today. Yeah...Nah, must be just a temporary aberration...forget it.
Relationship hasn’t broken down completely ...yet ....give it a few more weeks / months. (the chart is monthly closes)
Last time it got over 60% (for a period) wasn't a good time to hold SUM
A bit like your current PE reversion theory ...when things have high multiples the share price could fall or go nowhere for a while ..... maybe SUM getting into that overvalued zone on this measure
And RYM is a few months behind SUM in reporting
Fascinating ... today just might be noise in a long relationship
Last edited by winner69; 23-02-2018 at 02:50 PM.
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
Relationship has broken down completely ...yet ....give it a few more weeks / months. (the chart is monthly closes)
Last time it got over 60% (for a period) wasn't a good time to hold SUM
A bit like your current PE reversion theory ...when things have high multiples the share price could fall or go nowhere for a while ..... maybe SUM getting into that overvalued zone on this measure
And RYM is a few months behind SUM in reporting
Fascinating ... today just might be noise in a long relationship
Often a good time to buy is before a good result and then sell if the result causes irrational exuberance
I felt that this morning so sold all my SUM between $6 and $6.10
I really wanted more mercury as their result is going to be good-
Latest recommendation report
Valuation: $3.60Appropriately priced, neither buy nor sell Last updated:24/01/18
Performance Goes from Good to Better; We Increase Mercury's FVE to NZD 3.60
Investment rating
Mercury NZ (formerly Mighty River Power) is a renewable electricity generator accounting for more than 15% of New Zealand's total electricity output. It enjoys a strong competitive position, and we rate the firm as having a narrow economic moat because of cost advantages from its difficult-to-replace hydro and geothermal generation assets and scale in the oligopolistic retail electricity market. The regulatory environment has been favourable and the market is dominated by four major electricity companies, providing an attractive landscape supportive of solid cash flow and returns. The outlook is improving, as the tightening wholesale electricity market should drive stronger generation earnings and allow for retail price rises. Mercury's earnings from fiscal 2019 will also benefit from unfavourable interest-rate hedges rolling off.
Event analysis
Performance Goes from Good to Better; We Increase Mercury's FVE to NZD 3.60
Weather conditions remain highly favourable for narrow-moat Mercury NZ, which is benefiting from plenty of rain while major competitors face dry conditions. We estimate higher hydroelectric generation and high wholesale prices should see double-digit first-half EBITDA growth. Second-half growth is unlikely to be as good given the firm had a very strong finish to fiscal 2017, and rainfall may not be as favourable. Nonetheless, the firm upgraded fiscal 2018 EBITDA guidance 3% to NZD 530 million based on an updated hydro generation forecast of 4,550 gigawatt hours. We think this is a little conservative and increase our fiscal 2018 EBITDA forecast to NZD 537 million.
While Mercury's hydro generation will normalise, we believe stronger wholesale prices will prove sticky and lead to higher electricity prices for customers. We upgrade medium-term earnings forecasts marginally on stronger retail prices and lift our fair value estimate 6% to NZD 3.60 per share. Medium-term earnings will also benefit from falling interest costs as expensive hedges locked in during the global financial crisis roll off. Mercury is a high-quality company with a solid dividend yield and relatively good outlook. At the current price of NZD 3.40, the stock trades modestly below our valuation.
Mercury's generation division is performing very well. The December quarter saw hydroelectric output increase 5% as the firm ran down hydro storage to complement average hydro inflows. Lake Taupo storage started the quarter at 130% of average for that time of year, and ended the quarter at 85%. Mercury's run of good luck continued, with strong rainfall in early January boosting hydro storage back to average levels.
Hey fish, im with you on MCY, the current price doesn't make sense and is a real bargin. PS-Not holding SUM. PPS-Beagle may have to lend me a few shares so I can go to the AGM.
Often a good time to buy is before a good result and then sell if the result causes irrational exuberance
Ironic you suggest that. Just 10 minutes ago I got my calculator out and realized that $81.7m underlying profit is a 4.7% beat of the mid point of their guidance range issued in December 2017 ($78m) and what do you know, the shares are up 4.7% today. Often I wonder how efficient and rational the market really is. Just when I think it isn't, you get an example like this which almost completely restores my faith in the efficient market hypothesis theory.
Last edited by Beagle; 23-02-2018 at 02:11 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
I did lighten up our OCA and SUM holding,before the election.Maybe we were a bit overweighted with RYM,OCA,and SUM.
I don't currently have a short term opinion of the sector,however I remain "well positioned" for the long term growth the sector will enjoy.
I value other posters views on the sector more than mine,esp the usual suspects,Couta1[all],Beagle [SUM],and Vaygor1 [RYM].
Few years ago when I've decided to get into the sector I was going to buy RYM but my broker (Craigs) suggested SUM and I bought it (well before knowing about this forum). This one has become my happiest holding, indeed I follow what Couta1 and Beagle comment about it as I look forward to learn more.
Ironic you suggest that. Just 10 minutes ago I got my calculator out and realized that $81.7m underlying profit is a 4.7% beat of the mid point of their guidance range issued in December 2017 ($78m) and what do you know, the shares are up 4.7% today. Often I wonder how efficient and rational the market really is. Just when I think it isn't, you get an example like this which almost completely restores my faith in the efficient market hypothesis theory.
Very efficient calculation and thanks for all your postings telling us it was going to be a good result
But I dont believe the market is efficient everyday
The sp has fluctuated a lot since december.
A lot of posts suggested the results was going to be better than forecast so todays result should not have been a surprise to the informed.
I am very happy with the result and hope to buy back in sometime.
In the meantime I am looking for other waves to surf
Dogs like to stay and eat their prey.Sometimes they fall asleep after the food is gone
Fish have to be on the move once they sense the food has gone-but they do come back when the food returns.
They both have been highly successful
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