SUM - Summerset Group

[Beagle]

ATM put me in a position where I had to double down. SML I had to Double Double down. SUM didnt, so its in third spot in holdings ranks behind those other two.

Its hard to go wrong backing that trifecta

[Beagle]

https://www.summerset.co.nz/assets/I...ual-Report.pdf

[James108]

They are relocating their GM development to GM development Australia - was this info available earlier? Seems like they are seriously looking at Aus villages now, did not realise this. Happy for them to follow Rym into Aus.

[Ggcc]

They are relocating their GM development to GM development Australia - was this info available earlier? Seems like they are seriously looking at Aus villages now, did not realise this. Happy for them to follow Rym into Aus.

I feel land is somewhat overpriced here in NZ and Summerset have a 6 year land bank, so it is great to work with that land for now until property prices cool down a bit. Properties seem a lot cheaper in Australia than here, of course depending where you are buying (same as in New Zealand) so a great move.

[macduffy]

I feel land is somewhat overpriced here in NZ and Summerset have a 6 year land bank, so it is great to work with that land for now until property prices cool down a bit. Properties seem a lot cheaper in Australia than here, of course depending where you are buying (same as in New Zealand) so a great move.

I'd like to think that there's a lot more to SUM's move into Aus than just the attraction of cheaper land. Rather, that it is a well researched and considered move, not just a "follow Ryman" reflex decision! But not to worry. I'm sure they know what they're doing.

[Beagle]

I'd like to think that there's a lot more to SUM's move into Aus than just the attraction of cheaper land. Rather, that it is a well researched and considered move, not just a "follow Ryman" reflex decision! But not to worry. I'm sure they know what they're doing.

Their average rate of earnings growth since listing 6 years ago at ~ 45% (three times the rate of RYM's) suggests they do.

[Scrunch]

And lets hope the proposed foreign buyers ban, if it gets through Parliament, will not tie things up for the retirement village operators. The report referred to in the NBR article expects increase in the over 75 population to be 164% nationwide and 205% in Auckland from now until 2043, requiring 1654 new units every single year. Since 2012 the growth rate in villages being built has been 12%.
The future demand is incredible.

I'm puzzled. A 4.6% compounded growth rate for 25 years is 205% from now. If the current village growth rate is 12%/yr then its been more than double what's required to meet the this long-term older population growth rate. Do build rates need to slow down to meet future requirements or am I missing something?

[iceman]

I'm puzzled. A 4.6% compounded growth rate for 25 years is 205% from now. If the current village growth rate is 12%/yr then its been more than double what's required to meet the this long-term older population growth rate. Do build rates need to slow down to meet future requirements or am I missing something?

The numbers posted were only for 75+. The 65-74 age range is about the same numbers. The total population growth in NZ is estimated to be 20% over that time period while 65+ is expected to increase by 92%.
In the last 5 years the number of units in retirement villages has grown by 130% ( 6,400 units) but more interestingly, the penetration rate has grown from 9.1% to 12.4%. The report estimates are based on the 2016 penetration rate, i.e. no increase in penetration rate for the next 25 years !!!
I believe with better facilities, providing better healthcare and better activities for its occupants, much more than 12% of the 65+ population will choose the lifestyle and financial freedom that comes with living in retirement villages.
I also believe retirement village living is and will be an even bigger part of the solution to the "housing crisis", or rather, our need to house our fast increasing population.

In Europe, apartments built and occupied solely by 55+ are becoming increasingly popular and in most cases these people sell large good homes to younger families. A new target market perhaps for SUM ??

So I am firmly of the view that this is a big growth industry for the foreseeable future and SUM and RYM are pretty much as safe a bet as one can have on the NZX.

[artemis]

.....
In Europe, apartments built and occupied solely by 55+ are becoming increasingly popular and in most cases these people sell large good homes to younger families. A new target market perhaps for SUM ??

Couple of years ago I asked this question at the SUM ASM and was told they were looking at it. Must be plenty who would be interested in a purpose built apartment with eveything on site or at the doorstep. No sign yet AFAIK but maybe they are swans paddling like crazy under the water. Or more likely sticking with their current well tried development model for now.

I did hear that there are potential issues with emergency egress for older people in a multi storey building.

At the same meeting they also said they were considering communities catering for some ethnic groups.

[macduffy]

The retirement village companies will be reluctant to provide accommodation for the 65-70 age group, let alone the 55+ cohort. Their business model is built around the "turnover" of the 70+ occupants. You'll need to find some other developer for the 55+ folk's needs.