SUM - Summerset Group

[Beagle]

Its just one quarter guys, I don't make long term investment decisions on one quarters result. Learned that lesson the hard way.
Care units are obviously harder and longer sell, said as much in the announcement for those who took notice.
Re-sales will be on higher margins due to much higher embedded value, that's what will drive profit growth this year.
Yes, we can all learn from others. Learning to display some of Percy's patience...all the proof you need that old dog's can learn new tricks

[Filthy]

agree, don't think it will hurt long-term prospects at all.

likely to see mid-6's in the interim, as we look to settle back into a trading range before another leg up

sales data was not as good as I had hoped.

[TFA]

I find it irritating when companies highlight favourable comparisons and hide or downplay unfavourable comparisons.

For Q1 last year SUM published the fact that new units were up by 41% on the previous year whereas this year there is no comment to say the figures are 30% down on last year

[Beagle]

Could I please ask where you get the forward PE from? On the NZX site I see a PE of 6.85 but I am guessing this is a historical PE?

Please review the last 20 pages or so of this thread, its all been clearly articulated already.

[winner69]

agree, don't think it will hurt long-term prospects at all.

likely to see mid-6's in the interim, as we look to settle back into a trading range before another leg up

sales data was not as good as I had hoped.

Wouldn’t want them say ‘sales wise this was our lowest quarter since Q116’

[Beagle]

Wouldn’t want them say ‘sales wise this was our lowest quarter since Q116’

SUM will get fixated on one quarters results and draw conclusions about the long term. I've been there and done that and it cost me plenty.
That won't stop SUM people needing the learn the lesson first hand for themselves. This one is definitely in my "Percy Patience Portfolio"

[oldtech]

Please review the last 20 pages or so of this thread, its all been clearly articulated already.

Thank you Beagle, I will go a-hunting. I have been following this thread for some time but I clearly missed that so my apologies.

[BlackPeter]

Wouldn’t want them say ‘sales wise this was our lowest quarter since Q116’

And to be fair, this would not be appropriate either. If I look at the running total (12 month window), than they sold 654 units over the last 12 months which is above the median sales number for the last 10 quarters (642.5 units in a 12 months period).

Considering as well that the Q1 numbers normally appear to be lower (but for Q1-2017, which was exceptional) and that they said that they expect in the second half for more units to come for sale (they always do) do I not think that there is any reason to worry.

As long as Rymans 15% CAGR is seen as "best in class" can I live with SUM's backward CAGR of 20% (forward CAGR 17.7% - still better than Ryman);

[Beagle]

Thank you Beagle, I will go a-hunting. I have been following this thread for some time but I clearly missed that so my apologies.

Thanks for taking that so well mate and sorry I don't have the time to reiterate my thinking again. Can I suggest you have a look at my posts shortly after the annual result release in very late February. Somewhere in there I gave my reasons for underlying profit forecast of $100m this year which is 44.5 cps and a forward PE of 15.5. Happy to stick with that forecast at this stage. You need to garner an understanding of the difference between underlying profit and reported profit (international financial reporting standards, IFRS) which has been discussed in detail before too.
Happy hunting

Good post BP.

[winner69]

And to be fair, this would not be appropriate either. If I look at the running total (12 month window), than they sold 654 units over the last 12 months which is above the median sales number for the last 10 quarters (642.5 units in a 12 months period).

Considering as well that the Q1 numbers normally appear to be lower (but for Q1-2017, which was exceptional) and that they said that they expect in the second half for more units to come for sale (they always do) do I not think that there is any reason to worry.

As long as Rymans 15% CAGR is seen as "best in class" can I live with SUM's backward CAGR of 20% (forward CAGR 17.7% - still better than Ryman);

I still like the chart I posted earlier .. hard not to say trending down of late