SUM - Summerset Group

[longy]

The overseas foreign buyers restrictions should have been introduced years ago when prices were charging their way up. They are now introduced when prices have stabilised anyway - so the overseas buyers may well have lost interest in the NZ housing market anyway! The easy bucks have already made by the overseas investors.

The question is how much will the prop market fall if much at all? If you are selling in the current market I don't see it as a problem and if it falls say 7% like in OZ given the gain it has over the last few years... So what right?

[Lewylewylewy]

"...Summerset CEO Julian Cook said new sales of occupation rights in the year to August are aligned with the delivery of new retirement units over the same period..."

What do you guys read "aligned" to mean? Does that mean 1:1 or some other "aligned" ratio? Am i thinking about this too much? The announcement infers that they sold everything.

[freddagg]

"...Summerset CEO Julian Cook said new sales of occupation rights in the year to August are aligned with the delivery of new retirement units over the same period..."

What do you guys read "aligned" to mean? Does that mean 1:1 or some other "aligned" ratio? Am i thinking about this too much? The announcement infers that they sold everything.

It can only mean that the number of builds is very close to the number of sales. Anything else is unthinkable.

[iceman]

It can only mean that the number of builds is very close to the number of sales. Anything else is unthinkable.

A bit of a worry that wording. The sun and the moon are aligned but not really close :-)

[winner69]

A bit of a worry that wording. The sun and the moon are aligned but not really close :-)

A lot of Summerset announcements are rather vague / obtuse.

Probably doing it on purpose and hoping punters think real positively.

Some statements are so vague you can’t even read between the lines.

[Maverick]

it's a comforting statement when everything is going swell but if things really are getting a little unstuck in the sales department then it's vagueness is well constructed to put us off the scent for now. If Derek Handley had said it then it would definitely be very bad ( then no doubt followed by how SUM is improving global sustainability and enabling everyone's full potential) but the fact Julian cook said it then everything is probably all steady as she goes. In my mind Julian has built up a lot o f credibility over the years so I'll decide to take it positively until more evidence to the contrary. It would really help if some explanation was given as to why the apparent widening gap from new deliveries compared to new sales.
Really good observation Lewy, thanks for raising it.

[Beagle]

A lot of Summerset announcements are rather vague / obtuse.

Probably doing it on purpose and hoping punters think real positively.

Some statements are so vague you can’t even read between the lines.

Giving themselves quite a lot of wiggle room. You could easily say that last years sales were aligned with the build rate as they sold ~ 85% of what they built.
Strong Q4 sales numbers are crucial as is some progress on the fiasco at Boulcott St..
A less than impressive Q4 sales number could see this with a 5 handle again.

[Beagle]

Would someone like to do some research please ? (Hound is a bit tight time-wise today)
1. Taking into account sales for the first 3 quarters this year what sales do they need for Q4 to match last years sales number ?
2. What Q4 sales number do they need to achieve to sell all expected new builds this year i.e. 450 units ?
3. Have they ever achieved new sales in any quarter in their history before to achieve either of the above scenario's ?

[winner69]

Would someone like to do some research please ? (Hound is a bit tight time-wise today)
1. Taking into account sales for the first 3 quarters this year what sales do they need for Q4 to match last years sales number ?
2. What Q4 sales number do they need to achieve to sell all expected new builds this year i.e. 450 units ?
3. Have they ever achieved new sales in any quarter in their history before to achieve either of the above scenario's ?

Dorothy Dixer

[BlackPeter]

Would someone like to do some research please ? (Hound is a bit tight time-wise today)
1. Taking into account sales for the first 3 quarters this year what sales do they need for Q4 to match last years sales number ?
2. What Q4 sales number do they need to achieve to sell all expected new builds this year i.e. 450 units ?
3. Have they ever achieved new sales in any quarter in their history before to achieve either of the above scenario's ?

Just consulting my spreadsheet ...

Last years total sales numbers: 682, of them 382 new and 300 resale.
Q1 to Q3 2018 sale: 447, of them 227 new and 220 resale.

Q4 required to match last year: 235, of them 155 new and 80 resale.

Q4 required to match 450 new sales: 223 new to sell in Q4

Have they ever sold 155 or 223 new units in one quarter? No, highhest new unit sells in any one quarter have been 125 units in Q3-2016;

Highest resell number in any quarter have been 98 in Q4 2017 ... I.e. they might make up a bit with that, but unlikely a material amount.

Sounds like they do have a challenging task ahead ... ;

Discl: still holding SUM, but significantly reduced the holding while SP was between MA50 and MA100 ;