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05-02-2019, 09:19 PM
#7121
Originally Posted by Beagle
No amount of corporate spin can sugar coat this...its a poor result. The SP has a 5 as the first number in the not too distant future. You read it from me first.
Great short and double down on OCA in my opinion but I don't short so I'll leave that to someone else.
Posted 10 January and sure enough now starts with a 5.
Hi artemis - All anecdotal to the best of my knowledge. SUM directors mentioned at the annual meeting last year construction cost inflation is running at around 10% per annum in Auckland and with building 450 units per annum I would think they'd know.
A certain large company that I can't name pulled out of a major land deal with one of my clients just before Christmas ostensibly I believe because they are under pressure with very slow sales on their other finished developments. I'm trustee on that trust and I've been talking to very senior people in one of the major commercial agencies and they are worried. Chinese land banking is a thing of the past, they're simply not in the market anymore. Market ostensibly changed direction in a big way when the foreign buyer regulations changed on 22 October.
Another very senior guy with a different Australian owned agency told me some developers are being told by their banks to rent units out to get some cash flow to service the debt because sales have slowed down. Developers were told to do this "or else", apparently.
The speed of the decline in Sydney and Melbourne has increased lately with price declines of 1.4% (nearly 17% per annum) in January for Sydney and 1.3% for Melbourne. ASB economists think there a strong correlation between Sydney and Auckland prices with a 6-9 month time lag. Declines in Auckland are coming, I am sure of that. Its much harder to get a mortgage now, much, much harder and that's having an effect as well.
Any change to taxation rules including ring fencing of tax losses and / or a CGT will only exacerbate the size of future falls but I think Cindy and her Kindy want that
so they can trumpet they are doing their bit for the "have nots" They are going to send the economy into a recession they way they are going, you read it from me first.
Last edited by Beagle; 05-02-2019 at 09:29 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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07-02-2019, 11:50 AM
#7122
Originally Posted by Beagle
Posted 10 January and sure enough now starts with a 5.
... and back to 6.
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07-02-2019, 01:58 PM
#7123
Originally Posted by oldtech
... and back to 6.
All the proof you ever need that every dog has its day. I was right for one day lol
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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07-02-2019, 02:24 PM
#7124
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22-02-2019, 08:38 AM
#7125
Very impressive set of numbers out today
I’d even say generally more robust numbers than some other recently released sector reports. I think some will be ‘surprised’ at the $98m underlying earnings number
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...947/295456.pdf
Last edited by winner69; 22-02-2019 at 08:46 AM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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22-02-2019, 08:45 AM
#7126
Originally Posted by Maverick
Thanks Winner. I reckon the market is in for a pleasant surprise on this one. I know that's against the superior wisdom on this forum but I just can't see it going off the rails this fast in such a target rich environment backed up with great history
A pleasant surprise it was eh
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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22-02-2019, 08:57 AM
#7127
sales volumes starting a new trend? will be able to tell after next yr if the trend is down or stalled. as i mentioned with oca margins are under pressure in the retirement sector and summerset has re affirmed this today
one step ahead of the herd
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22-02-2019, 09:17 AM
#7128
I am unsure how to interpret these results, would be keen to hear from those with better insight than me (which is most people on this forum ...)
Underlying profit well up, by 21%. BUT BUT BUT ... net profit before and after tax well down (10%/11%).
Looking at the appendix, this seems to be due to a lower figure for "fair value movement of investment property"; IE 209.9 vs 234.5. Is this basically saying the property market has slowed, therefore the increase in value on the property is lower?
Other points I see:
Sales of occupation rights down by 6%
Two newly acquired sites announced today:
- Milldale: 6.0 hectare site in a new suburb on the Hibiscus Coast
- Waikanae: 25.5 hectare site close to Waikanae Beach and golf club (estimated village size of 8.0 hectares)
Not sure how I feel about the prospects for Milldale - it's located just a little further from the shops than I would have thought suitable for a retirement village.
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22-02-2019, 09:35 AM
#7129
Originally Posted by oldtech
I am unsure how to interpret these results, would be keen to hear from those with better insight than me (which is most people on this forum ...)
Underlying profit well up, by 21%. BUT BUT BUT ... net profit before and after tax well down (10%/11%).
Looking at the appendix, this seems to be due to a lower figure for "fair value movement of investment property"; IE 209.9 vs 234.5. Is this basically saying the property market has slowed, therefore the increase in value on the property is lower?
Other points I see:
Sales of occupation rights down by 6%
Two newly acquired sites announced today:
- Milldale: 6.0 hectare site in a new suburb on the Hibiscus Coast
- Waikanae: 25.5 hectare site close to Waikanae Beach and golf club (estimated village size of 8.0 hectares)
Not sure how I feel about the prospects for Milldale - it's located just a little further from the shops than I would have thought suitable for a retirement village.
Oltech, this is a fundamental thing that is really important to understand in this sector. It's a good question that you need to get sorted.
Basically "net profit" includes current property valuations.
"Underlying profit" is the profit of the actual business operation with property value gains or losses stripped out.
In this sector the only number I pay attention to is the underlying. Otherwise any company has the potential to do a "bob jones"(I presume from "Oldtech" , you were around in the eighties) , where all you need to do is revalue everything up on paper and say how well things are going.
Last edited by Maverick; 22-02-2019 at 09:37 AM.
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22-02-2019, 09:55 AM
#7130
Originally Posted by Maverick
Oltech, this is a fundamental thing that is really important to understand in this sector. It's a good question that you need to get sorted.
Basically "net profit" includes current property valuations.
"Underlying profit" is the profit of the actual business operation with property value gains or losses stripped out.
In this sector the only number I pay attention to is the underlying. Otherwise any company has the potential to do a "bob jones"(I presume from "Oldtech" , you were around in the eighties) , where all you need to do is revalue everything up on paper and say how well things are going.
Thanks Maverick. I was not totally clear either.
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