SUM - Summerset Group

[winner69]

Highlight of a pretty ho hum report definitely becoming the first retirement village operator in New Zealand to achieve CarboNZero certification

That’s far more meritorious than Scott Scoullar being named 2019 NZ CFO of the Year ...possibly a rather dubious honour


Good stuff

[trader_jackson]

Highlight of a pretty ho hum report definitely becoming the first retirement village operator in New Zealand to achieve CarboNZero certification

Good stuff

winner I liked the comment(s) on CAGR (eg slid 35)... how we have to continue to be excited (and pay lavish price to NTA ratios etc) even though things are very clearly slowing down big time over the past couple of years... werid how they still want to lift to building 600 things pa, yet unsold stock is ever increasing... given they can't sell the things, you'd think they wouldn't be so gung-ho on increasing build rates

I found it funny [borderline a joke] the top comment on slide 10 "Focus on continuum of care model" ... hard to focus on that when they have only 18% of their portfolio being care based and hardly any slides were devoted to care (eg net promoter scores of care business or % total villages with 4 year certification)
(you reckon they are waking up to what I have mentioned multiple times over the past months and years that this [continuum of care] really will be ever more important over the coming years?)

[winner69]

winner I liked the comment(s) on CAGR (eg slid 35)... how we have to continue to be excited (and pay lavish price to NTA ratios etc) even though things are very clearly slowing down big time over the past couple of years... werid how they still want to lift to building 600 things pa, yet unsold stock is ever increasing... given they can't sell the things, you'd think they wouldn't be so gung-ho on increasing build rates

I found it funny [borderline a joke] the top comment on slide 10 "Focus on continuum of care model" ... hard to focus on that when they have only 18% of their portfolio being care based and hardly any slides were devoted to care (eg net promoter scores of care business or % total villages with 4 year certification)
(you reckon they are waking up to what I have mentioned multiple times over the past months and years that this [continuum of care' will be ever more important over the coming years?)

Yes indeed ...that touted 42% pa CAGR in underlying earnings now down to 36% pa I note .....and possibly in a few years will be less than 10% pa

[winner69]

winner I liked the comment(s) on CAGR (eg slid 35)... how we have to continue to be excited (and pay lavish price to NTA ratios etc) even though things are very clearly slowing down big time over the past couple of years...
)[/SIZE]

Current share price 1.25 times Book Value ....definitely not outrageously cheap ...maybe just a little on cheap side ....trying to be nice here

[Ggcc]

Just a few things I picked up from the slides. Everything seems business as usual.

In the second half of this year we are officially opening three new villages, in Avonhead (Christchurch), Kenepuru (Wellington), and Richmond (Tasman). These sites have already seen good levels of pre-sales interest and settlements. We expect this will result in an increase in our new sales settlements in the second half of the year and this will be reflected in our financial results.


In February, we signalled that we were looking for land in Victoria, Australia. We are currently in the process of carrying out due diligence on a number of potential sites.

Total assets grew to $3.0 billion, up 24% on the same period last year.

Embedded value at $694 million

I think it is too early to judge how the company is performing, but I will continue to hold. SUM looks promising for the future, but like all Retirement sectors they are struggling with the housing sentiment. House prices are not dropping a lot if anything, but they are just taking longer to sell.

[trader_jackson]

Current share price 1.25 times Book Value ....definitely not outrageously cheap ...maybe just a little on cheap side ....trying to be nice here

Need the sum flag waivers to tell us what is so great about sum vs others as I am struggling to see it (have been for a while), but at least now there is sum numbers to support why I've been struggling to see what is so great about sum these days
It should be extremely worrying that the percentage available new sales uncontracted is continuously climbing, especially given they have been building less

[winner69]

Need the sum flag waivers to tell us what is so great about sum vs others as I am struggling to see it (have been for a while), but at least now there is sum numbers to support why I've been struggling to see what is so great about sum these days
It should be extremely worrying that the percentage available new sales uncontracted is continuously climbing, especially given they have been building less

To be fair t_j SUM as a company is about as great as the others in the sector (might leave MET out of the discussion though) even though each concentrates on different things

But as long as theyball keep building things and property prices keep going up we’ll be OK (even though banks and residents own more than 60% of the properties)

[Balance]

In February, we signalled that we were looking for land in Victoria, Australia. We are currently in the process of carrying out due diligence on a number of potential sites.

House prices are not dropping a lot if anything, but they are just taking longer to sell.

House prices are dropping and getting worse by the month - Developer I know very well is being offered development land and sections at ever cheaper prices as the squeeze intensifies.

And even as I wrote the above, this alert flashed across my mobile - https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12257989

"Mid-winter is hitting the housing market with national and Auckland prices down, according to the latest Real Estate Institute data for July."

And this is only the first year start of the leg of a typical 5 year down cycle.

As for going over to Australia where the property market is in free fall, a big red flag if ever I see one! Growth for growth's sake is the philosophy of a cancer cell - it ultimately destroys the body proper.

[winner69]

House prices are dropping and getting worse by the month - Developer I know very well is being offered development land and sections at ever cheaper prices as the squeeze intensifies.

And even as I wrote the above, this alert flashed across my mobile - https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12257989

"Mid-winter is hitting the housing market with national and Auckland prices down, according to the latest Real Estate Institute data for July."

And this is only the first year start of the leg of a typical 5 year down cycle.

As for going over to Australia where the property market is in free fall, a big red flag if ever I see one!

REINZ use good old real estate agent talk in their news release pointing to a booming market HIGHEST NUMBER OF PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS NZ IN MONTH OF JULY FOR 3 YEARS

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...975/305148.pdf

Solid result. Embedded value at record level's points towards steady underlying profit growth in the years ahead.