SUM - Summerset Group

**Balance** · 13-08-2019, 09:35 AM

Originally Posted by winner69

REINZ use good old real estate agent talk in their news release pointing to a booming market HIGHEST NUMBER OF PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS NZ IN MONTH OF JULY FOR 3 YEARS

Don't you just love them real estate agents and industry players?

Meanwhile real estate agents are busy telling committed vendors how difficult it is to sell properties out there and why they need to bring down prices before prices go down further! At the same time, they are telling prospective vendors that there is good demand out there - just needs a bit of time to get the price they are looking for!

Get the mandate to sell first, list for a few weeks and then : "It's a buyers' market" - the current catch cry of the industry to sellers.

Two years' ago, it was "It's a sellers' market"!

**Beagle** · 13-08-2019, 09:39 AM

Very easy to get tunnel vision when working with Auckland real estate. Shift to Nelson or Napier to name just two other area's and you'd be forgiven for thinking we're in a boom. Summerset has villages well spread throughout most of the country.

**Balance** · 13-08-2019, 09:47 AM

Originally Posted by Beagle

Very easy to get tunnel vision when working with Auckland real estate. Shift to Nelson or Napier to name just two other area's and you'd be forgiven for thinking we're in a boom. Summerset has villages well spread throughout most of the country.

Matter of time - where Auckland goes, rest of country follows.

This is the first leg of a down cycle of 5 years.

If you are in Christchurch, you'd be forgiven for thinking we are in a recession!

I think a name change by the company to Summerrise rather than Summerset might help the share price though.

**iceman** · 13-08-2019, 09:56 AM

Originally Posted by Balance

Matter of time - where Auckland goes, rest of country follows.

This is the first leg of a down cycle of 5 years.

If you are in Christchurch, you'd be forgiven for thinking we are in a recession!

I think a name change by the company to Summerrise rather than Summerset might help the share price though.

Maybe the rest of the country follows Auckland to a degree but here in Nelson we most certainly did not follow Auckland to the lofty heights and I doubt very much we will follow Auckland as abruptly downwards.

**couta1** · 13-08-2019, 09:57 AM

Originally Posted by iceman

Maybe the rest of the country follows Auckland to a degree but here in Nelson we most certainly did not follow Auckland to the lofty heights and I doubt very much we will follow Auckland as abruptly downwards.

Same in the Wellington region, prices very steady and lots of demand.

**Ggcc** · 13-08-2019, 09:57 AM

Originally Posted by Balance

Matter of time - where Auckland goes, rest of country follows.

This is the first leg of a down cycle of 5 years.

If you are in Christchurch, you'd be forgiven for thinking we are in a recession!

I think a name change by the company to Summerrise rather than Summerset might help the share price though.

I can only give my opinion for Napier and have noticed house selling way too fast or offers on them before I have even seen the house. In Napier it is a sellers market. I bought my house in 2011 and feel happy I did. Not many first home buyers can afford a place in Napier anymore. Entry level is about $480,000 in an average/good suburb and the house will need some work done to it.

**trader_jackson** · 13-08-2019, 10:02 AM

Next buyer is at $5.65...
around $5.50 is where I would see 'fair value'... but not great value.
Always did find it weird why it started going back up when quarterly sales were clearly pointing in a not great direction

**Balance** · 13-08-2019, 10:06 AM

Originally Posted by trader_jackson

Next buyer is at $5.65...
around $5.50 is where I would see 'fair value'... but not great value.
Always did find it weird why it started going back up when quarterly sales were clearly pointing in a not great direction

One thing I must agree with is that the well managed retirement village companies are good long term investments.

I still have my MetLife but am certainly not even remotely contemplating putting any more funds into the sector until the property cycle reverses back to an uptrend.

RBNZ cutting interest rates very aggressively and talking about potentially allowing rates to become negative - which part of down trend do people not read!

**Beagle** · 13-08-2019, 10:16 AM

Originally Posted by Balance

One thing I must agree with is that the well managed retirement village companies are good long term investments.

I still have my MetLife but am certainly not even remotely contemplating putting any more funds into the sector until the property cycle reverses back to an uptrend.

RBNZ cutting interest rates very aggressively and talking about potentially allowing rates to become negative - which part of down trend do people not read!

Yeah, its so obvious we're already in a nation wide downtrend, that's why embedded value keeps going up and is now nearly $700m !

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/2...ecord-highhtml

Astute readers will have noticed that for the first time SUM has shown 3 dogs in their presentation, see page 9 of the link I provided earlier whereas their previous best was 2 dogs. That's obvious growth and progress right there

It should be obvious that the companies early years of super profit growth are over and we are moving towards more RYM type annual profit growth which is fine considering the company is presently priced like its a no growth company.