SUM - Summerset Group

[winner69]

Disappointed no mention of how successful or otherwise the mystery shopper initiative went ...seemed to be key to getting some sales momentum going

[Beagle]

Reported data is historical data.

Summerset sp was $8.00 - remember?

Yes I remember and sold in the high $7's and posted my reasons why on 10 October 2018.
Mid-late $5's is good investing for the long run in my opinion...but those looking for a quick buck will probably be disappointed.

[LAC]

Late to the party, just read the report. Great results and slow and steady as she goes.... plan to add during the lows

[fish]

Late to the party, just read the report. Great results and slow and steady as she goes.... plan to add during the lows

Thats the way.
I always ask myself what the shareprice be like in a few years time.There will be a range and if you believe the risk of fall is outweighed by the likely gain then buy.You also have to factor in the dividends-as long as they are higher than bank deposit rates then it is a wise decision to invest

[trader_jackson]

Very solid result. Development margin is absolutely stunning. Noted their target build rate rises to 600 units per annum over the next 2-3 years. Also noted this half's expenses include project related matters that may not be repeating.

I have raised my underlying profit estimate for the year to 31 March 2018 to $105 - $110m. This is off the back of their stunning development margin and the heavily weighted delivery of new units to the second half. At the mid point that represents underlying profit of $107.5m and 47.8 cps.

Choose whatever PE you believe in taking into account their track record of CAGR of 45% per annum in underlying profit since listing. I estimate current year growth in underlying earnings at approx. 30%. I remain with a price target of ~ $9 - $9.50 by mid 2019.

I am pleased they are treading very cautiously in Australia.

I reckon SUM people that think SUM is overpriced should have another look at their SUM's...

Funny when you look back a year ago... for example the above (posted 364 days ago) and when winner pointed out to me (around the same time) how gearing went down at 1H18 (vs 1H17)... well since then a lot has changed, for example:
- mid 2019 sum were saying we were gonna see a $9.50 share price (give or take $4 I suppose?)
- 600 unit build rate is looking ever more dangerous (given they have shown they can't actually sell the things fast enough to warrant an increase in build rate!)
- the 8 year CAGR has dropped nearly 10% (in only 1 year!)... I remember specifically saying I think this 45% or so CAGR is highly unsustainable (while others use to trumpet it from the rooftops)
- current underlying earnings growth for full year is looking to be about only a third of what sum were saying it would be
- gearing is now back up (ahead of both 1H18 and 1H17)... I reckon in a year or two CAGR Interest bearing loans and borrowings 'growth' of 28% could be higher than Underlying profit CAGR
- share price is down exactly $2 since then (364 days ago) as well
- ... and they seem to be getting keener on Aussie
in fact everything this year is almost the total opposite to this time last year eh
Maybe sum peoples sum's weren't that bad after all?

[Beagle]

Plenty of subsequent posts saying I'd revised my estimates. Thank goodness for the ignore list.

[trader_jackson]

Plenty of subsequent posts saying I'd revised my estimates. Thank goodness for the ignore list.

Regardless of the ignore list, it cannot be ignored that there must have been sum very dramatic bigly huge revisions in a pretty short period of time!
Without alot of apologies or even a 'hmm maybe that guy tj wasn't that crazy in the first place' lol

[Baa_Baa]

One thing I must agree with is that the well managed retirement village companies are good long term investments.

Certainly agree, especially when one can acquire shares at very reasonable prices, buying an income stream that will go on delivering for decades.

[couta1]

trader Jackson you do seem to have a habbit if using people's prior posts against them from time to time, I remember a couple of yrs or so ago you gathered several of mine(You must have a lot of spare time to run back through yrs of posts) and put them all together in one post and used them in a like manner, not very cool IMO. PS-People post in real time and call it as they see it at that time.

[Balance]

trader Jackson you do seem to have a habbit if using people's prior posts against them from time to time, I remember a couple of yrs or so ago you gathered several of mine(You must have a lot of spare time to run back through yrs of posts) and put them all together in one post and used them in a like manner, not very cool IMO. PS-People post in real time and call it as they see it at that time.

Easy enough to write that - yes, that was my view at that time and it has proven to be incorrect?

Unfortunately there are those who believe that they are never wrong?