SUM - Summerset Group

[winner69]

This might be more relevant, though for the MET thread

We don’t build things to last these days ...relevant to all in sector

[justakiwi]

All good points and valid, except for this one. Many of our current residents come from farming backgrounds (both males and females), nursing/teaching, trades, banking/insurance, so not necessarily less educated. Funnily enough, our 102 year old is the fittest, healthiest and sharpest of all of them (his mother lived to 109!)

It will indeed be interesting to see how things pan out over the next 20-30 years. Healthy discussion is never a bad thing though

Good points supported by personal experiences - and very worthwhile discussing <SNIP>

3) A tendency for the less educated (and often less well off) to need care earlier due to health problems often caused by drug and alcohol-abuse, obesity and generally less healthy lifestyle ...

I suspect what you are seeing at work is in the majority members of the latter group while the target group for independent retirement living is clearly group 2.

[RTM]

From superseniors.msd.govt.nz

THE NUMBERS:

65 plus
The number of people aged 65 and over is increasing

• At the end of 2016, 711,200 people were aged 65-plus
• Those aged 65 years and older will roughly double, from 711,200 in 2016 to between 1.3 and 1.5 million in 2046
• Or 23 per cent of the total population, up from 12 per cent in 2016.

so is the number aged over 80

• At the end of 2016, 169,000 people were aged 80+
• That number is projected to climb to 392,800 by 2036
• It's an increase of 132.4 per cent

and the 95-plus numbers are increasing

• At the end of 2016, 5,800 people were aged 95-plus
• By 2036, it's projected the number will rise to 14,500. It's an increase of 150 per cent
• By 2056, the number will climb to 42,400 aged 95-plus. That's a 631% increase from 2016.

I don't think there is any question on the numbers getting old.
I do think Tuaman's question is valid from the perspective of will these folk all want to go and live in a retirement village ?
My Mum is 89 and living by herself. She has some help so she can do so. Its her preferred option.
My neighbour has built an AirBnB chalet on his property, he is going to hire a Philippino nurse and provide free accommodation for her in the Chalet when the time comes that he needs help.
Another neighbour struggled on on his big property, quite happy, and then went and spent his last days with his daughter.

There are quite a few different solutions, and lots of people will want to stay in their own dwelling if that is possible.

[BlackPeter]

I don't think there is any question on the numbers getting old.
I do think Tuaman's question is valid from the perspective of will these folk all want to go and live in a retirement village ?
My Mum is 89 and living by herself. She has some help so she can do so. Its her preferred option.
My neighbour has built an AirBnB chalet on his property, he is going to hire a Philippino nurse and provide free accommodation for her in the Chalet when the time comes that he needs help.
Another neighbour struggled on on his big property, quite happy, and then went and spent his last days with his daughter.

There are quite a few different solutions, and lots of people will want to stay in their own dwelling if that is possible.

You are right - nobody knows and there are so many possibilities.

Two observations, though ... Given the ugly rise of populism and nationalism all around the world might it be less likely that your neighbours Filipino nurse might get a visa to work ... and - while it is a great option for elderly to live with their families - they are more dispersed than ever these days, making it often impractical for the elderlies to live with their children.

In any business there are risks one must manage ... but I would think that if the biggest risk for a well run and desirable to live in retirement villages is not to find enough clients who want to live there, then the risk profile looks manageable :

Don't forget as well that NZ is considered internationally a quite desirable place to live. We might have to cater for more than just our own elderlies - wealthy old people from all over the world (including ExPat Kiwis and Australians who all are free to move here whenever they like) might want to buy into some of the top retirement villages in NZ. These things are happening e.g. in Switzerland, one of the preferred retirement locations for the well off's in Europe: https://www.expatfocus.com/c/aid=395...o-switzerland/

Have a look at the article - most of the reasons for rich people to retire in Switzerland would be true for NZ as well. Obviously - we don't have the good Swiss chocolate (Cadbury sucks ...) and yes, our public transport sucks as well. But apart from that I think we can tick the other boxes

The challenges for our village providers will not be lack of interest as long as they offer well built, well managed and comfortable units in outstanding locations.

[dobby41]

I don't think there is any question on the numbers getting old.
I do think Tuaman's question is valid from the perspective of will these folk all want to go and live in a retirement village ?
My Mum is 89 and living by herself. She has some help so she can do so. Its her preferred option.
My neighbour has built an AirBnB chalet on his property, he is going to hire a Philippino nurse and provide free accommodation for her in the Chalet when the time comes that he needs help.
Another neighbour struggled on on his big property, quite happy, and then went and spent his last days with his daughter.

There are quite a few different solutions, and lots of people will want to stay in their own dwelling if that is possible.

All the old people don't have to move into retirement villages.
The villages will fill if just the same percentage of the old people as now want to move.
Makes for a large increase in the absolute numbers using villages.

[macduffy]

All the old people don't have to move into retirement villages.
The villages will fill if just the same percentage of the old people as now want to move.
Makes for a large increase in the absolute numbers using villages.

Spot on, dobby!

[Beagle]

Big trouble coming for Mr and Mrs Beagle if we're stupid enough to rely on our pups to look after us in our old age. I suspect there's many, many hundreds of thousands of baby boomers in the same boat...
My Mum turns 90 this month and has been very happy in her retirement village for the last decade. Most people who move into villages wish they'd done it sooner and really enjoy the sense of community and camaraderie.

[dobby41]

Big trouble coming for Mr and Mrs Beagle if we're stupid enough to rely on our pups to look after us in our old age. I suspect there's many, many hundreds of thousands of baby boomers in the same boat...
My Mum turns 90 this month and has been very happy in her retirement village for the last decade. Most people who move into villages wish they'd done it sooner and really enjoy the sense of community and camaraderie.

Not so much of an issue for Kiwis as we don't really have a history of caring for our elderly quite so directly.
Now the Chinese - there's an issue coming (or here already) as they do have a big history in generational caring - 1 couple having to look after 2 sets of parents.

[Scrunch]

Supply will be over time be adjusted by the number of units that have rotten away / fallen over and not replaced

Ongoing exterior maintenance of units is an issue that all building owners need to consider. SUM currently have a disproportionate number of their buildings that are relatively new which helps.

If well maintained buildings can last a long time, certainly past 2050. What should happen is SUM will start needing to spend progressively more on maintenance. Hopefully it goes from a very small to small expense and doesn't eat away too much of the surplus.

[Ggcc]

Big trouble coming for Mr and Mrs Beagle if we're stupid enough to rely on our pups to look after us in our old age. I suspect there's many, many hundreds of thousands of baby boomers in the same boat...
My Mum turns 90 this month and has been very happy in her retirement village for the last decade. Most people who move into villages wish they'd done it sooner and really enjoy the sense of community and camaraderie.

Most parents don’t want to feel that they are a hindrance to their children. My parents spoke negatively about retirement villages for years and have come around to realise it might be the best thing for them when the time is right (they are too young for now). Maybe when they are 80-85ish. 80 is the new 65 haha. I don’t feel that they would be a hindrance on myself or my other sibling, They need to spend their last years being happy and well looked after, which a retirement village offers for them. How they wish to spend their money is up to them, it is their money.