SUM - Summerset Group

[Beagle]

As they say in the analyst business probable a random spike in the numbers

Or the start of a new trend ? Resales numbers based on my calculations based on normal length of stay and total number of units owned have been extraordinarily low in the last couple of years. Resales will really drive profit growth in the next 3 years. (That's what the market isn't understanding at this point).

[winner69]

Odd Julián ‘new sales maintained the momentum reported in the first half.’

Yes he’s right — new sales in first half down 6% on pcp — new sales Q3 down 6% on pcp.

Only reason Julián would make such a statement is if he assumed punters expected things to get worse and would be than 6% down in Q3

But then he said sales mer expectations.

[winner69]

Or the start of a new trend ? Resales numbers based on my calculations based on normal length of stay and total number of units owned have been extraordinarily low in the last couple of years. Resales will really drive profit growth in the next 3 years. (That's what the market isn't understanding at this point).

Yes indeed - all those extraordinary revaluation gains over the last few years to be realised.

But they make more than double the bucks from selling a new thing than a used one.

[artemis]

More deaths in winter. So more resales.

[BlackPeter]

While it is true that more people are typically dying during winter than during the more friendly seasons - if you look at the resale trend I published (the purple line), it does not really show seasonal tendencies.

As well - after a unit is vacated, they first need to renovate it and put it on the market ... I think in average it is something like 3 or 4 months from vacating the unit to reselling it; Any deaths during this winter would not have contributed to Q3 resales.

I think resale numbers are more likely dependent on the average age of the residents and the overall number of units available ... and all three average age, number of units as well as resale numbers are clearly trending up.

[Beagle]

Agreed BP.

[Lease]

I view the numbers are good: new sales are better than Q1 and Q2. Resales are the best over last six quarters.

What else you guys expect?

[Beagle]

I view the numbers are good: new sales are better than Q1 and Q2. Resales are the best over last six quarters.

What else you guys expect?

Well said. Up 11.5% on the same quarter last year too http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/7...n-the-yearhtml

[freddagg]

I view the numbers are good: new sales are better than Q1 and Q2. Resales are the best over last six quarters.

What else you guys expect?

The only one who is negative is Winner and all that means is that he is wanting to buy.

[Beagle]

The only one who is negative is Winner and all that means is that he is wanting to buy.