SUM - Summerset Group

[winner69]

That 50% relativity to RYM sure is sticky ! Good thing is the higher RYM goes the better. another 10% is worth only another $1.30 now so when RYM is $20 in a few years and SUM breaks out to 70% price relativity that's another 20% or $4 on the price v $10 it would have been if this silly 50% thing hung around forever. SUM to be $14-$15 in 3-4 years. The dog barked it first !
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-...+November+2019

Looks like SUM timed their recent entry into Australia perfectly !

Sure is sticky. You’ve got to live with some things that revert to the mean, reoccur and things like that. It’s almost like it’s natures way.

Like the Springboks win the RWC every 12 years ...spooky eh

So in 2031 the Springboks will win the RWC again and the SUM share price will still be about 50% of the RYM share price.

[Beagle]

Sure is sticky. You’ve got to live with some things that revert to the mean, reoccur and things like that. It’s almost like it’s natures way.

Like the Springboks win the RWC every 12 years ...spooky eh

So in 2031 the Springboks will win the RWC again and the SUM share price will still be about 50% of the RYM share price.

LOL the old financial advisors saying springs to mind “Past performance is no guarantee of future results” It'll be interesting to see what happens when SUM is making more underlying eps per share than RYM. As a numbers man I will always believe that earnings matter and in the long term share prices follow earnings.

SUM day, when SUM's underlying eps is greater than RYM's I might back that up with doubling down on SUM and shorting RYM to hedge my position then when Coutts theory is completely shikkered I'll be a very happy dog.

[winner69]

As a numbers man I will always believe that earnings matter and in the long term share prices follow earnings.

So true - very wise

And SUM is a great example - as earnings have grown over the years the share price has followed

Cool eh

[Beagle]

Very cool. Top two blokes are very bright and highly motivated. Good board too although the caveat to that now is that Rob Campbell has too much on his plate.

[winner69]

Very cool. Top two blokes are very bright and highly motivated. Good board too although the caveat to that now is that Rob Campbell has too much on his plate.

Rob's desire to grow companies by buying things overseas has had a bit of a chequered history

[Beagle]

Rob's desire to grow companies by buying things overseas has had a bit of a chequered history

Sure has but we'll be fine because its Julian Cook that's keen on the Australian expansion.

[winner69]

Sure has but we'll be fine because its Julian Cook that's keen on the Australian expansion.

Ah, the same Julian who loves mystery shoppers and ‘maintaining the momentum’ of going backwards is made out to be good.

[Beagle]

Not defending him as I thought it was a slightly creative statement too but maybe there's a larger number of signed contracts he's aware of that are conditional on people selling their homes and now the market has picked up we're in for a really good Q4 ? Time will tell. I will allow him a rare indiscretion and keep the faith.

No mater what, one thing I am confident of is that underlying eps will grow quite well this year and into the future.

[winner69]

Not defending him as I thought it was a slightly creative statement too but maybe there's a larger number of signed contracts he's aware of that are conditional on people selling their homes and now the market has picked up we're in for a really good Q4 ? Time will tell. I will allow him a rare indiscretion and keep the faith.

No mater what, one thing I am confident of is that underlying eps will grow quite well this year and into the future.

Yep indeed - especially with all the abnormal revaluations of 2016/2017 to be realised

I reckon F19 Underlying Earnings to be $116m/$120m even if sales are the same as last year.

That’s oretty good compared to $98m in F18

[Beagle]

Plenty good enough for FY19 and in FY20 we can look forward to even more growth driven by both previous IFRS reported gains, higher volumes of resales and a higher build rate. FY21 we start to see Australian development kicking in as well. Long term hold, can't go wrong.