SUM - Summerset Group

[Beagle]

This for Winner69, you'll see that the 60% sell 40% buy is not a reliable trade indicator, you'd have made a couple of $ between 2014-2016 then be out and have missed all the action with no subsequent buy signals.

Try as you might, and I have, there appears to be no reliable recurring % sell indicator, and there's no corresponding buy % extreme that is reliable either.

A fun fact about reversion to the mean, but as a buy/hold/sell indicator, more a curiosity than anything particularly useful.


Attachment 10925

Thank you for factually debunking what I know are factually unsound theories of price relativity. I'm sure Coutta will be along to point to the history of his theory holding water but I couldn't care less. Thankfully I have my own nose for a feed to follow backed up with very thorough analysis.
I see we're over $9 today. My call of $10+ by the time of the annual meeting in April 2020 is looking very good !

[winner69]

Baabaa - what a mess you’ve made off what should have been a nice simple chart ...did you apply some if TA skills to a reversion to the mean theory ...nuts if you have

You are worse than beagle - make a good combo you two -you complicating charts and beagle with his ratios. Suppose one / anybody can ‘debunk’ anything if one tries hard enough

I do like your normal nice clean and clear charts ...this one lets yourself down. (as you can tell I have no idea what these smiley things mean)

[Baa_Baa]

Thank you for factually debunking what I know are factually unsound theories of price relativity. I'm sure Coutta will be along to point to the history of his theory holding water but I couldn't care less. Thankfully I have my own nose for a feed to follow backed up with very thorough analysis.
I see we're over $9 today. My call of $10+ by the time of the annual meeting in April 2020 is looking very good !

No worries, better to stick with good FA and projections to pick a company, then as long as fundamentals don't change too much, use SP TA to time buys & sells. A good dose of detailed understanding of a company (FA) and its price action TA (market sentiment / momentum) is way better than making buy/hold/sell decisions based on any comparison with any other company, even in the same sector. jmho.

SUM has very bright future, the sell off on property market jitters was a godsend buy-in/accumulate opportunity. My best performer for 2019. Eyes on sales performance for 2020, this could really fly.

[Baa_Baa]

Baabaa - what a mess you’ve made off what should have been a nice simple chart ...did you apply some if TA skills to a reversion to the mean theory ...nuts if you have

You are worse than beagle - make a good combo you two -you complicating charts and beagle with his ratios. Suppose one / anybody can ‘debunk’ anything if one tries hard enough

I do like your normal nice clean and clear charts ...this one lets yourself down. (as you can tell I have no idea what these smiley things mean)

Ha ha Winner, the chart is simple, it's the narrative that confounds the myth. No one I think is saying that reversion to the mean isn't real (long term rolling SUM % of RYM is ... almost exaccery 50%), all we're saying is that the relative % per se is not a buy sell hold indicator, or not a consistently reliable indicator. I'll reflect on being "worse than Beagle", being worse than a very very high bar could still be a good thing.

Happy holidays everyone. It's been an enjoyable and profitable year with SUM, all the best for 2020.
BAA

[Beagle]

No worries, better to stick with good FA and projections to pick a company, then as long as fundamentals don't change too much, use SP TA to time buys & sells. A good dose of detailed understanding of a company (FA) and its price action TA (market sentiment / momentum) is way better than making buy/hold/sell decisions based on any comparison with any other company, even in the same sector. jmho.

SUM has very bright future, the sell off on property market jitters was a godsend buy-in/accumulate opportunity. My best performer for 2019. Eyes on sales performance for 2020, this could really fly.

Thanks. I couldn't agree more ! I think a 1:1 scrip bid for MET is a real chance and I'd back SUM management to make a lot more out of MET assets than MET management have !

[couta1]

Baabaa - what a mess you’ve made off what should have been a nice simple chart ...did you apply some if TA skills to a reversion to the mean theory ...nuts if you have

You are worse than beagle - make a good combo you two -you complicating charts and beagle with his ratios. Suppose one / anybody can ‘debunk’ anything if one tries hard enough

I do like your normal nice clean and clear charts ...this one lets yourself down. (as you can tell I have no idea what these smiley things mean)

The main thing here winner is that we have proven history on our side rather than Beagle trying to will the SUM sp higher because SUM ratio says it should be, the Couta theorum was not designed as a buy/sell indicator but simply to prove that the SUM sp would always gravitate to half that of RYM which it has stubbornly proven to do so. PS-Doesnt matter if and when the SUM sp hits $10 as all that's means is that the RYM sp will be $20 so punters really no better off buying one over the other aye.

[Beagle]

SUM up 65% from the lows of $5.50 mid year. The barking was very clear and persistent and anyone that listened should be very well pleased.
Its not done yet by any stretch of the imagination and 2020 could be a huge year for SUM. The company is still trading on a PEG of less than 0.5 based on its CAGR over the last 5 years.

There is serious money to be made when thorough fundamental analysis shows a compelling investment case and then technical analysis starts firing off clear buy signals.

Hey Coutts...if you believed your own theory why didn't you buy in the mid $5 range when SUM were about 42% of RYM and you could also be up 65% ?
Missed opportunity because of your "enthusiasm" with ATM ? SUMVATM.jpg Ouch !!

[LAC]

Wow this got Above $9 today, OCA had a great day as well, sector is looking good going forward but this sudden jump is sure to fade away. Long term holder though so don’t really care about the ups and downs in the short term. I really do think thy OCA will get their spending sorted over the next couple years hence the most bang for buck from that MET sale will end up in OCA

[couta1]

SUM up 65% from the lows of $5.50 mid year. The barking was very clear and persistent and anyone that listened should be very well pleased.
Its not done yet by any stretch of the imagination and 2020 could be a huge year for SUM. The company is still trading on a PEG of less than 0.5 based on its CAGR over the last 5 years.

There is serious money to be made when thorough fundamental analysis shows a compelling investment case and then technical analysis starts firing off clear buy signals.

Hey Coutts...if you believed your own theory why didn't you buy in the mid $5 range when SUM were about 42% of RYM and you could also be up 65% ?
Missed opportunity because of your "enthusiasm" with ATM ? SUMVATM.jpg Ouch !!

You know me I like to keep a narrow focus so my enthusiasm is and has been for ATM for quite some time now and will be for a good while going forward, not a missed opportunity just a different opportunity. PS- You might like to run your graph for SUMVATM back a couple more years and see which one looks better or better still from the time of SUMs listing in 2011 against ATM until now.

[winner69]

You know me I like to keep a narrow focus so my enthusiasm is and has been for ATM for quite some time now and will be for a good while going forward, not a missed opportunity just a different opportunity. PS- You might like to run your graph for SUMVATM back a couple more years and see which one looks better or better still from the time of SUMs listing in 2011 against ATM until now.

Think milk wins