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31-12-2019, 02:59 PM
#8561
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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31-12-2019, 03:04 PM
#8562
 Originally Posted by Beagle
Congrats, stick those in the bottom drawer for quite SUM years and you'll reflect back on this last day of the decade and be able to give yourself a very big pat on the back.
I have quite a SUM of SUM shares already so am very well positioned for the 2020's 
I dont own any or in fact any retirement stocks for that matter yet I'm also feeling very well positioned.
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31-12-2019, 03:06 PM
#8563
Last edited by Beagle; 31-12-2019 at 03:13 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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31-12-2019, 03:14 PM
#8564
Originally Posted by Beagle
I take it you're hoping MET shareholders don't get a counter offer at $8 then 
Too many unknowns to worry about but I reckon $7 is your lot, meanwhile I'm feeling rather bloated and can now take a rest from making milkshakes until the time is right to open up the dairy and start dispatching lots of them.
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31-12-2019, 03:20 PM
#8565
Speaking of being bloated I'm hoping that the MET offer expands just as quick as my waistline has over Xmas
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...DF&FORM=WRVORC 
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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31-12-2019, 03:28 PM
#8566
Originally Posted by Beagle
Congrats, stick those in the bottom drawer for quite SUM years and you'll reflect back on this last day of the decade and be able to give yourself a very big pat on the back.
I have quite a SUM of SUM shares already so am very well positioned for the 2020's
Thanks heaps for your analysis over the last year or so Beagle. It's been a tough one for me and I am a lot more skeptical these days but next year looks promising. Just have to survive Kim Jong Un, China & the South China Sea and Donald Trump and things might be OK. Happy New Year people!
All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford
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02-01-2020, 06:43 PM
#8567
Australian property prices rocketing up
From Westpac report:
The recovery in Australian dwelling prices that began in mid-2019 accelerated in the final quarter, sustaining a robust pace into year end. The CoreLogic home value index, covering the eight major capital cities, rose 1.2% in the Dec month following a very strong 2.0% gain in Nov and a 1.4% rise in Oct, giving a 4.7% gain for the final quarter. Prices rose 3% for the year as a whole a 7% rebound in the second half more than offsetting a 3.8% decline in the first.
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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02-01-2020, 08:37 PM
#8568
Gotta say that those bushfires look the worst I have ever seen. Even though the Australians have been very tough on Kiwi's with some of their recently changed policies, I feel sorry for them, those fires are profoudly shocking. Someone made a comment about global warming and Australians crossing the ditch to retire here a while back and suggested that even if 1% did that it would make a big difference to demand for retirement village living here. I think that 1% guesstimate is starting to look a little bit conservative. Fire risk aside as a separate issue, its simply getting too hot over there...
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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03-01-2020, 08:25 AM
#8569
Originally Posted by Beagle
Tomorrow is the start of SUM's FY20 year and investors will start pondering their prospective FY20 earnings of maybe $140m giving 62 cps. $9.05 / 0.62 = forward PE of just 14.6 for a company with average compound growth of 37% per annum.
Why should this trade on less than the median forward PE of 19 given they have the highest average compound growth rate of any stock listed on the NZX for the last 8 years ?
....
You being unusually conservative / bearish on that $140m F20 earnings.....only 16% earnings growth
Remember weve got all those abnormal / extraordinary revaluation gains from 2017/2018 yet to be realised to be
No doubt when we (should) get a real positive earnings guidance for F19 next week
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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03-01-2020, 09:20 AM
#8570
It'll probably be more, just a little early to make that call. $150m for Fy20 wouldn't surprise me and as much as $200m in FY21 when their development program hits high gear. Fabulous stock to hold long term and just let compound earnings growth do its magic.
Last edited by Beagle; 03-01-2020 at 09:24 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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