SUM - Summerset Group

[Beagle]

Forsyth increased SUM's target price from $7.20 to $8.90 with outperform rating and "do not view as expensive on a 16x PE" Beagle must have helped right the report
They were right to call ARV's share price at $1.78 (when it was sub $1.30 just over 6 months ago), maybe they'll be right about sum other operators as well? Then again with the share price already in the high $8, intriguing they can give it an outperform rating

I gave up on Forsyth Barr about a decade ago. Mostly in my experience with them their analysts just follow other analysts or follow the market up. Very few insights and certainly not enough worth paying full service brokerage rates for. Company is worth $9 now and will be worth ~ 30-35% more a year from now after that much earnings growth in 2020. A year from now Forbar will raise their price target to $12.00 after its already there lol

$15 is on the cards for sometime in 2021 or early 2022...you read it from the Beagle, first

[Lease]

Forsyth increased SUM's target price from $7.20 to $8.90 with outperform rating and "do not view as expensive on a 16x PE" Beagle must have helped right the report
They were right to call ARV's share price at $1.78 (when it was sub $1.30 just over 6 months ago), maybe they'll be right about sum other operators as well? Then again with the share price already in the high $8, intriguing they can give it an outperform rating

SP has already at around $8.8, and they just increased TP to $8.9. What's the point to follow them?

[MauroNZ]

SP has already at around $8.8, and they just increased TP to $8.9. What's the point to follow them?

Same thing I was questioning with Craigs.

[winner69]

Lot been said about how good Julian and Earl are (even if different ways)

Question: how good is Gordon then?

[forest]

Gordon, I think a league or 2 above Julian and Earl.
Unfortunately the league he play in has very few players in NZ.

[Beagle]

Gordon, I think a league or 2 above Julian and Earl.
Unfortunately the league he play in has very few players in NZ.

Not reflected in the growth rate of RYM in recent years. I think Julian and his right hand man, deputy CEO / CFO Scott Scoullar are a lot smarter than you're giving them credit for. Earl a lovely guy, the sort of CEO you'd love if you were a resident as he is laser focused on pleasing people, residents and staff. Good for shareholders though ?

[forest]

Not reflected in the growth rate of RYM in recent years. I think Julian and his right hand man, deputy CEO / CFO Scott Scoullar are a lot smarter than you're giving them credit for. Earl a lovely guy, the sort of CEO you'd love if you were a resident as he is laser focused on pleasing people, residents and staff. Good for shareholders though ?

Beagle, I agree with you that julian and his team are very good. I just think Gordon and his team are exceptional.
Gordon explained in the past at meetings that the company aim is to grow underlying profits at app 15%. They could grow faster but 15% growth RYM considers a manageable long term realistic goal.
After Gordon's team has put the energie in for the 15% growth, management time is allocated to work improvements for staff and improvements for residence.
RYM is very aware that the company has 3 types of stakeholders, shareholders, employees and residence. Very important not to favour the shareholders above the other stakeholders. If they would the shareholders would get a set back in time anyway.
That is the way I see it.

[Beagle]

You know me Forest, I'm a numbers man.

RYM average growth rate in the last five years 14% per annum.
SUM average growth rate in the last five years 36% per annum, assuming they make at least $114m in 2019 to be reported in February 2020.

Each to their own but I reckon those numbers speak for themselves.

[macduffy]

Each to their own but I reckon those numbers speak for themselves.

Yes and no. RYM have been listed for longer than SUM. It gets harder to maintain a high growth rate as the company grows i.e. the law of large numbers.

I hold them both - and MET and OCA and ARV! A retirement village company junkie?

[forest]

You know me Forest, I'm a numbers man.

RYM average growth rate in the last five years 14% per annum.
SUM average growth rate in the last five years 36% per annum, assuming they make at least $114m in 2019 to be reported in February 2020.

Each to their own but I reckon those numbers speak for themselves.

Yea, when you put it that way SUM has done a lot better.
What is your prediction for SUM underlying growth rate in the next 5 years?