SUM - Summerset Group

[winner69]

...and what an awesomely stunning result it’s going to be

Can’t wait.

Maybe 8% growth is underlying earnings and 16% increase in Book Value is awesomely stunning

[couta1]

Well looks like it's not only my pet share that's going to get SUMwhat of a hammering, hey Beagle you still got these? That reversion to the mean not to be messed with aye winner.

[LAC]

2020 will be a great year imo, all the ducks line up as of now.
2019 anything around $107m will be pleasing.

Was pretty close. Still a good result overall but not as I expected. SP should head down again today

[winner69]

Well looks like it's not only my pet share that's going to get SUMwhat of a hammering, hey Beagle you still got these? That reversion to the mean not to be messed with aye winner.

You would have to think that reversion to the mean will play out today or tomorrow.

Yep, Laws of Nature not to be messed with

RYM down today would put SUM at 800

And general undershoots on down side just like it has overshot on the upside.

[Snow Leopard]

Much as I meditate on the way of SUM I fail to comprehend how they continue to under-perform on their potential.


38% is so the day before yesterday.

[King1212]

Mayday...mayday...mayday!

[Beagle]

No question the result was a bit disappointing and the outlook for no underlying profit growth in FY20 extremely disappointing, especially against a backdrop of what will likely be a full year of strong residential property price growth.

Despite all the sugar coating of talk of "investment" in staff...really I am over this so called "investment" in staff, why don't they just call it what it is, we faced substantial cost increases with staff.

Unsold new stock keeps rising year on year on year as does resale stock. Debt level's keep rising and rising and their land bank is actually looking quite excessive now for their build rate...I have to look at the numbers some more but something like 12 years land bank at the FY20 build rate is really looking excessive.

The expansion into Australia with all the necessary resources marked a major turning point in the growth rate of RYM and really has acted as a headwind for years for them. I expect the FY20 outlook reflects the human resource cost increase over there for SUM and I expect Australian development will be a big drag on earnings growth in FY21 as well.

To me it seems all the retirement companies are struggling to a greater or lesser extent to sell their units and I suspect the market is actually quite over supplied.

I have been on at Julian Cook for years that they need to change to a fixed fee for life model and he won't listen.

Bulcott Street hearing in June 2019 at the Environment court...they are still waiting on a decision. To me the system is broken when the Environment court takes more that 7 months to even make a decision...that's beyond ridiculous.

I have made major changes to my expectations of growth rates going forward and now see this growing in the 10-15% rage, similar to RYM going forward from FY21 onward.

Based on no growth in FY20 earnings this gives eps of 46.7 cps in FY20. It's clear this is not a $9 stock anymore so I am glad I sold two thirds of my stake in the last week for ~ $9 and the rest this morning.

I initial sense is I see fair value somewhere around $7 after a major reassessment of expected growth rates in the long term and no growth in FY20.
To say I am disappointed would be a considerable understatement.

Disc: No shares left

[couta1]

The Beagle has exited stage left, or is that stage right.

[Mr Slothbear]

8% up not terrible but that outlook for 2020 is abysmal. Glad my holding is only small.

i’ve even noticed Ryman having ads on youtube so sales must be getting more competitive. Theres a lot of new units being built by a lot of players so looks like those supernormal profits are thing of the past

[LAC]

No question the result was a bit disappointing and the outlook for no underlying profit growth in FY20 extremely disappointing, especially against a backdrop of what will likely be a full year of strong residential property price growth.

Despite all the sugar coating of talk of "investment" in staff...really I am over this so called "investment" in staff, why don't they just call it what it is, we faced substantial cost increases with staff.

Unsold new stock keeps rising year on year on year as does resale stock. Debt level's keep rising and rising and their land bank is actually looking quite excessive now for their build rate...I have to look at the numbers some more but something like 12 years land bank at the FY20 build rate is really looking excessive.

The expansion into Australia with all the necessary resources marked a major turning point in the growth rate of RYM and really has acted as a headwind for years for them. I expect the FY20 outlook reflects the human resource cost increase over there for SUM and I expect Australian development will be a big drag on earnings growth in FY21 as well.

To me it seems all the retirement companies are struggling to a greater or lesser extent to sell their units and I suspect the market is actually quite over supplied.

I have been on at Julian Cook for years that they need to change to a fixed fee for life model and he won't listen.

Bulcott Street hearing in June 2019 at the Environment court...they are still waiting on a decision. To me the system is broken when the Environment court takes more that 7 months to even make a decision...that's beyond ridiculous.

I have made major changes to my expectations of growth rates going forward and now see this growing in the 10-15% rage, similar to RYM going forward from FY21 onward.

Based on no growth in FY20 earnings this gives eps of 46.7 cps in FY20. It's clear this is not a $9 stock anymore so I am glad I sold two thirds of my stake in the last week for ~ $9 and the rest this morning.

I initial sense is I see fair value somewhere around $7 after a major reassessment of expected growth rates in the long term and no growth in FY20.
To say I am disappointed would be a considerable understatement.

Disc: No shares left

Wow, that was fast