SUM - Summerset Group

[ratkin]

Wow, that was fast

Thats me out, was disapointed but then looked at the chart for the last couple of years and it still a very big win

[peat]

Thats me out, was disapointed but then looked at the chart for the last couple of years and it still a very big win

yeh that's what I thought too.... substantially out.

[Beagle]

It has been a great run. On another subject I am not impressed with their carbon neutral politically correct nonsense.

Despite what Julian Cook officially says in the NZX announcement I know he will be disappointed with just 8% underlying earnings growth, the slowest growth rate since they listed...but wait there's more, we're not going to grow earnings at all in the current year....WOW...what a "clanger" of a statement that is
What happened to their target build rate of 600 units per annum ?
Despite a booming real estate market across N.Z. their current build rate target is only 400 units, far less than they built in 2018...why so low ?

They should just come out and admit that they have a sales problem. Julian Cook stated at the April 2019 meeting he didn't expect stock level's to go up in 2019 but they have and quite significantly. I was the one that asked towards the conclusion of last year's annual meeting what their build rate target was for 2019 ? If I hadn't asked they weren't going to disclose it.

They're just not selling enough...but according to Cook nobody gives them bad feedback that they don't have fixed fees for life....but that's not what I hear...

I won't be at the annual meeting in April to bark about their issues...first annual meeting I will have ever missed as I'm no longer entitled to attend with no shares That's okay because its a long road trip to Wellington and I wasn't going to fly. I will miss catching up with my mates and fellow shareholders down there this year though

[Blue Skies]

Better off to DYOR. "Past performance is no guarantee of future performance" But think about this. How many times in your life have you read that disclaimer ?
Have you ever read this one that I have long believed is the truth "Past performance is no guarantee of future performance but it is the very best guide we have" ?

Reason for this rant. DYOR is not that hard, just look at a companies history and extrapolate things out and adjust for known current economic factors.
All that suggests to me is SUM is on for a cracker year in 2020. Maybe $150m underlying profit ?

Shares were ~ $8 in mid 2018. Are they really that expensive now given the real estate pendulum has swung so dramatically towards growth again compared to back then ?...or maybe they are really cheap ? $150m would give eps of 66 cps and put SUM on a forward PE of just 13.6 at $8.98.

13.6 with their track record of eps growth. Hmmmm

In hindsight it appears at same time you were writing this glowing forecast last week, you were selling 2/3rds of your SUM at $9.
Hope I'm wrong, but confused.

[King1212]

In hindsight it appears at same time you were writing this glowing forecast last week, you were selling 2/3rds of your SUM at $9.
Hope I'm wrong, but confused.

Come on man.. everyone has their agenda here.. therefore take your own responsibility...this is a share market....people buy
.. people sell...market up.. market down...follow human emotions...

[Beagle]

In hindsight it appears at same time you were writing this glowing forecast last week, you were selling 2/3rds of your SUM at $9.
Hope I'm wrong, but confused.

That post was made exactly a week ago. If a "week is a long time in politics" its an eternity in this market. There have been major developments in the market since then, especially in relation to the virus and the risk of a global pandemic has substantially increased in my view, in the last couple of days so I reverted to over 80% cash and substantially reduced almost all my positions. Others will see the market risk from this virus differently and that's fine and I hope they are right.

[Sideshow Bob]

yeh that's what I thought too.... substantially out.

Have the feeling that will have the chance to buy back in at a substantially cheaper price. That may have already come today...…

[macduffy]

It's become pretty clear that the retirement village sector has over-estimated the short term demand for their product in recent years and that we will now see a slowing in unit completion for a while. Bluntly, most of us got a bit ahead of ourselves in that respect.

Well done, percy, for your foresight there!

[King1212]

That post was made exactly a week ago. There have been major developments in the market since then especially in relation to Virus and the risk of a global pandemic has substantially increased in my view, very recently. In the last few days I reverted to over 80% cash and substantially reduced almost all my positions.

N we did warn the market ...isnt Beagle? But people are in denial...what u can say....well...market will be up in no time and will hit record again next week.

[ratkin]

It has been a great run. On another subject I am not impressed with their carbon neutral politically correct nonsense.

Despite what Julian Cook officially says in the NZX announcement I know he will be disappointed with just 8% underlying earnings growth, the slowest growth rate since they listed...but wait there's more, we're not going to grow earnings at all in the current year....WOW...what a "clanger" of a statement that is
What happened to their target build rate of 600 units per annum ?
Despite a booming real estate market across N.Z. their current build rate target is only 400 units, far less than they built in 2018...why so low ?

They should just come out and admit that they have a sales problem. Julian Cook stated at the April 2019 meeting he didn't expect stock level's to go up in 2019 but they have and quite significantly. I was the one that asked towards the conclusion of last year's annual meeting what their build rate target was for 2019 ? If I hadn't asked they weren't going to disclose it.

They're just not selling enough...but according to Cook nobody gives them bad feedback that they don't have fixed fees for life....but that's not what I hear...

I won't be at the annual meeting in April to bark about their issues...first annual meeting I will have ever missed as I'm no longer entitled to attend with no shares That's okay because its a long road trip to Wellington and I wasn't going to fly. I will miss catching up with my mates and fellow shareholders down there this year though

Maybe the build rate is low because they are not confident they can fill them. There is so much competition, and if the virus does come here hen there really would be a lot sitting empty