SUM - Summerset Group

[Beagle]

N we did warn the market ...isnt Beagle? But people are in denial...what u can say....well...market will be up in no time and will hit record again next week.

Market has had a fabulous run in the last 11 years of this Bull market since early March 2009, and especially last year. It can't continue forever...I think many of today's investors have never experienced the GFC and don't know what a bad recession feels like or its impact. All they know is a BULL market which they think will go on forever...

[percy]

It's become pretty clear that the retirement village sector has over-estimated the short term demand for their product in recent years and that we will now see a slowing in unit completion for a while. Bluntly, most of us got a bit ahead of ourselves in that respect.

Well done, percy, for your foresight there!

Thanks macduffy.
Seemed a bit odd not having a retirement stock in our portfolios,while people on here were so bullish..
Did well with RYM,SUM and OCA in the past.Even MET many many years ago.
Remember Water Beds?.Everyone had to have one.New stores opening up everywhere.
My wife often says to me when everyone is rushing into something."Waterbeds".
So it was easy to see the retirement sector was the new "waterbeds"...lol.

[Beagle]

Looks like Fisher Funds got their analysis right when they sold down significantly over the last quarter prior to this announcement. Perhaps had some good insight into slow sales continuing into 2020.

They still retained an 8% portfolio position at the latest reporting period after trimming down, was still a top five investment position for KFL. Their call to top up several times in mid 2019 was right but they can't get out as quickly as an individual investor so this highlights one of the weaknesses of managed funds. Agree they got the trimming part right though, just didn't trim enough.

What's fair value for FY20 eps of 46.7 cps which is $106m underlying. What's the right PE given eps growth in FY21 could be held back by ongoing "investment" into nurses and caregivers and human resource cost investment in Australia before development really ramps up there ? Really modest eps growth for FY 21 ? Growth not returning to ~ 15% per annum until FY22 ?
Fair PE 14-15 = $6.53 - $7.00 ? (Assuming no material impact to SUM from a possible worldwide virus pandemic which might not be a safe assumption).

[Beagle]

Thanks macduffy.
Seemed a bit odd not having a retirement stock in our portfolios,while people on here were so bullish..
Did well with RYM,SUM and OCA in the past.Even MET many many years ago.

To be objective about it though, you missed a great run in MET, ARV and SUM in 2019. Party is over now though for the next wee while, of that I am quite sure.

[Blue Skies]

Come on man.. everyone has their agenda here.. therefore take your own responsibility...this is a share market....people buy
.. people sell...market up.. market down...follow human emotions...

Wasn't accusing anyone of anything & you've made a few assumptions.

As a keen observer of human nature, like many am always curious about apparent contradictions.

Had been tempted to top up my long standing minor holding recently, but (glad) I didn't.

Always best to try not to get too emotional ( or cynical) tends to cloud judgement.

[Blue Skies]

That post was made exactly a week ago. If a "week is a long time in politics" its an eternity in this market. There have been major developments in the market since then, especially in relation to the virus and the risk of a global pandemic has substantially increased in my view, in the last couple of days so I reverted to over 80% cash and substantially reduced almost all my positions. Others will see the market risk from this virus differently and that's fine and I hope they are right.

Thanks Beagle, was just curious as always appreciate your insight & analysis on here.

[oldtech]

Freefall seems to have stopped for now ...

[Cadalac123]

can never have enough SUM right gais!@#!3132

[percy]

To be objective about it though, you missed a great run in MET, ARV and SUM in 2019. Party is over now though for the next wee while, of that I am quite sure.

More than made up for it elsewhere...lol.

[Beagle]

Go Couta1...reversion to the mean rules !!!!!!