No question the result was a bit disappointing and the outlook for no underlying profit growth in FY20 extremely disappointing, especially against a backdrop of what will likely be a full year of strong residential property price growth.
Despite all the sugar coating of talk of "investment" in staff...really I am over this so called "investment" in staff, why don't they just call it what it is, we faced substantial cost increases with staff.
Unsold new stock keeps rising year on year on year as does resale stock. Debt level's keep rising and rising and their land bank is actually looking quite excessive now for their build rate...I have to look at the numbers some more but something like 12 years land bank at the FY20 build rate is really looking excessive.
The expansion into Australia with all the necessary resources marked a major turning point in the growth rate of RYM and really has acted as a headwind for years for them. I expect the FY20 outlook reflects the human resource cost increase over there for SUM and I expect Australian development will be a big drag on earnings growth in FY21 as well.
To me it seems all the retirement companies are struggling to a greater or lesser extent to sell their units and I suspect the market is actually quite over supplied.
I have been on at Julian Cook for years that they need to change to a fixed fee for life model and he won't listen.
Bulcott Street hearing in June 2019 at the Environment court...they are still waiting on a decision. To me the system is broken when the Environment court takes more that 7 months to even make a decision...that's beyond ridiculous.
I have made major changes to my expectations of growth rates going forward and now see this growing in the 10-15% rage, similar to RYM going forward from FY21 onward.
Based on no growth in FY20 earnings this gives eps of 46.7 cps in FY20. It's clear this is not a $9 stock anymore so I am glad I sold two thirds of my stake in the last week for ~ $9 and the rest this morning.
I initial sense is I see fair value somewhere around $7 after a major reassessment of expected growth rates in the long term and no growth in FY20.
To say I am disappointed would be a considerable understatement.
Disc: No shares left
Originally Posted by oldtech
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. Is this the same beagle who told me off some weeks ago when I mentioned that SUM share price around $9 feels to get a bit ahead of itself? I sold at that stage part of my holding.
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