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02-03-2020, 05:04 PM
#8841
I am not far away from you and see fair value as $6.00 - $6.50 but have no interest whatsoever in paying anything like fair value in a bear market.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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02-03-2020, 05:10 PM
#8842
 Originally Posted by Beagle
I am not far away from you and see fair value as $6.00 - $6.50 but have no interest whatsoever in paying anything like fair value in a bear market.
Are we sure we are already in bear territory? So far this looks more to a nice and sharp correction to me, but I guess time will tell ...
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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02-03-2020, 05:12 PM
#8843
Originally Posted by Ggcc
Any ideas where we will see this share in the months to come?? I sold most of my holding in SUM, not due to the virus but more due to the lack of results. Quietly waiting on the sidelines for an entry point, but value it at less than this on the figures provided and the mentioning of no growth on the future underlying profits. I value it at roughly $6.50-$7, just an opinion, but love other ideas
The way I look is if SUM can not grow underlying earnings in NZ this year as they forecast than that is a worry in itself.
Now they are diverting their attention to set up business in Australia. Mm, does that sound like some other NZ companies. FBU, MPG come to mind.
I hope it won't be the case but if a business model is not working to well with full attention, it rarely works if management is distracted. And making the business model more complicated is likely a huge distraction.
Value, alot less than we have today. Remember we have a forecast of no operational earnings growth BUT every year SUM have more shares on issue and that is likely to continue.
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02-03-2020, 05:37 PM
#8844
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Are we sure we are already in bear territory? So far this looks more to a nice and sharp correction to me, but I guess time will tell ...
Definition of a bear market is >20% fall. SUM peaked at $9.30 so a 20% fall from that is $7.44. It closed at $7.43 this afternoon so there's your answer mate.
In terms of the market overall we're not even in correction territory yet, down just under 8% from the market peak NZX50 of ~ 12,050.
I agree with Forest 100%...the share price has a long journey to make southwards from here before I'd be interested again. The lack of sales progress is a mess and expansion risks across the Tasman will at best be a drag on earnings growth in FY21 and at worst we could see an earnings decline in FY20 and FY21 
Last edited by Beagle; 02-03-2020 at 05:43 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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02-03-2020, 05:45 PM
#8845
Originally Posted by Beagle
Definition of a bear market is >20% fall. SUM peaked at $9.30 so a 20% fall from that is $7.44. It closed at $7.43 this afternoon so there's your answer mate.
I agree with Forest 100%...the share price has a long journey to make southwards from here before I'd be interested again.
Ah .... you talk about mini-bears  ... I thought at the big picture; NZX50 not even 10% down from peak yet, isn't it?
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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02-03-2020, 05:53 PM
#8846
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Ah .... you talk about mini-bears ... I thought at the big picture; NZX50 not even 10% down from peak yet, isn't it?
Quite right mate, this hasn't even started properly yet...give it time.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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02-03-2020, 06:12 PM
#8847
And Probably need a decent capital raise to get Aussie underway ....dont forget they’ve burned a lot of cash recently just in NZ
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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02-03-2020, 08:03 PM
#8848
Originally Posted by winner69
Most of my SUM are held for the long term and I intend it to stay that way.. I started collecting in 2012 ...jeez that’s a long time ago. Maybe I’m in love with SUM but really see no reason to divorce her. A bit like RBD I’ve kept most of some bought so long ago I can’t remember when
Over that time the share price has gone up by 24% pa.
On days like today I take solace from the chart below .....just says SUM still over priced at the moment but still trending up so why pack a sad now.
The red line is the linear regression line and the lines above and below are 1/2 STD DEV. Not a chart of log prices so Snowie will laugh his head off and say it’s rubbish.
Still have fun trading the swings with my punting money.
Has it reached the bottom line on your chart yet? For some reason chart will not repost
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02-03-2020, 08:38 PM
#8849
Originally Posted by ratkin
Has it reached the bottom line on your chart yet? For some reason chart will not repost
Todays close is spot on the trend line (linear regression one) .... the lower channel is currently at 630.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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02-03-2020, 08:41 PM
#8850
Originally Posted by Mogul
couta theorem seems to be standing up to scrutiny well in the new bear market scenario
....and wise old dogs believed in the theorem and sold all his SUM just as the %age came off the peak....knowing it was going to revert to the mean.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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