SUM - Summerset Group

[ratkin]

Todays close is spot on the trend line (linear regression one) .... the lower channel is currently at 630.

Thx, maybe a decent bounce point, (6.30) or maybe it will bounce off the middle one

[Beagle]

Thx, maybe a decent bounce point, (6.30) or maybe it will bounce off the middle one

Or maybe seeing as Julian has just dropped the clanger of a result of his entire career it will simply sail past the bottom of the trend line at $6.30 and plumb new depths.
Could easily retest last years low of ~ $5.30 in my opinion. No growth in FY20...WOW...I am still trying to get my head around that ABSOLUTE SHOCKER !!

[winner69]

Or maybe seeing as Julian has just dropped the clanger of a result of his entire career it will simply sail past the bottom of the trend line at $6.30 and plumb new depths.
Could easily retest last years low of ~ $5.30 in my opinion. No growth in FY20...WOW...I am still trying to get my head around that ABSOLUTE SHOCKER !!

Maybe you can now appreciate why I didn’t join you and Mav in going to the ASM ...too easy to be seduced by smooth talking leaders with a pack of glossy sides who generally only tell you how bright the future looks.

Julian has signalled things not to good in his words over the last year.

One was him talking about ‘mystery shoppers’ at the ASM. Jeez what a thing for a builder of retirement villages to talk about. Were mystery shoppers really going to solve their sales problem.

Another good one was announcing Q3 sales when as new sales numbers declined again he said ‘new sales maintained the momentum reported in the first half’. Quick read sounds really positive but in reality sales were going backwards just as fast as before.

Then that all resulted in Julian coming out With that ‘clanger’ of no growth in 2020. Doesn’t usually give guidance does he so probably going to happen. Gave a few reasons ...maybe he’s going to use the virus excuse for the next downgrade.

Beagle me old mate ...read between the lines.

Whatever SUM will still make heaps in 2020 and the company will continue to get more valuable ....like maintaining the momentum of the past lol

[forest]

And Probably need a decent capital raise to get Aussie underway ....dont forget they’ve burned a lot of cash recently just in NZ

You right Winner, a lot of cash is being used.
Had a look at the interest bearing loans and borrowings, this went up in 2019 from $453m to $597m or more than 30%.
One would think with so much extra borrowing the company would do more than the prior year.
However SUM delivered a decline in residences from 454 in 2018 to 354 in 2019 or 22%.
Something seem to be broken.

[ratkin]

Six people dead now in that old peoples home in Washington. Just shows what will happen if the virus gets into those places. It in a home in Germany too. By the end of this winter we could be looking at a lot of vacant units in SUM villages.
They need the staff to live and be permanently onsite, and to ban all visitors etc. Pretty harsh if the old sticks cannot see their families but the alternative is wipeout.

How many staff on minimum wage would do that though? Reality is the virus will find a way in

[Beagle]

I hear you Winner. The annual report read like a public relations marketing exercise. "Investing in staff"...like that's some sort of achievement, when all they are doing is paying people what the DHB does so they reduce staff churn...calling this "investment" is just plain and simple "public relations bull****"...carbon neutral..Chris Luxon would be proud but does anyone else care ?
No real ownership taken and explanations of what's gone wrong.

If you had of come along to the annual meeting you would have heard Cook express his confidence that stock level's had peaked in 2018 and that he was confident that they would reduce in 2019, or words to that effect...what an epic fail that was.

Or if you had of joined Mav and I in discussions with him after the meeting you would have heard how I asked him what sort of growth for 2019 and I suggested single figure growth and he said he would be very disappointed if it was only that...but then he goes on about what a great year it was, now.

I really do believe that (just like when RYM started across the Tasman, that really put a handbrake on underlying earnings growth) and so it will be the case for SUM for at least in the FY20 and FY21 years.

The question has to be asked, what is the point of expanding over there when the N.Z. operations are not working anywhere near optimally ? Losing focus ?

No worries...another $150m bond issue will fix the cash flow problem, for another year...

[dobby41]

Six people dead now in that old peoples home in Washington. Just shows what will happen if the virus gets into those places. It in a home in Germany too. By the end of this winter we could be looking at a lot of vacant units in SUM villages.
They need the staff to live and be permanently onsite, and to ban all visitors etc. Pretty harsh if the old sticks cannot see their families but the alternative is wipeout.

How many staff on minimum wage would do that though? Reality is the virus will find a way in

How many die of the Flu in those homes?
Bearing in mind that they probably vaccinate for the Flu as best they can.

[oldtech]

Wow, that dead cat must have hit hard, the bounce has started!

[ratkin]

How many die of the Flu in those homes?
Bearing in mind that they probably vaccinate for the Flu as best they can.

Not Six in a day that is for sure

[BlackPeter]

Wow, that dead cat must have hit hard, the bounce has started!

I guess only hindsight will show whether the cat is really dead ; They say cats have nine lives, don't they?