SUM - Summerset Group

[Baa_Baa]

Didn’t get to the 200 dma now back up through the 100 dma

[dreamcatcher]

Retirement Investments Very-High-Risk-Currently and now suggestions from another news source that NZ property sales may be impacted by Covid-19. Australia already facing a decline with Residential building approvals falling -15.3%mom in January against expectations for little change.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...92f4781453f52e
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/sto...irus/?cs=14231

[BlackPeter]

Retirement Investments Very-High-Risk-Currently

Your unsubstantiated opinion or do you have anything to support this claim?

Retirement investments are in their nature long term ... and I see no evidence at all that the headwind which supports this industry will stop anytime soon. Do you?

China, a country with 1.3 billion people managed to get the virus under control - and they have so far some 3000 dead people. Make this 5000 to allow for the not yet recovered people. If you compare that with NZ - this would equal to roughly 20 dead people in New Zealand, if it gets here as bad as it was in China.

Even if the majority of these 20 people is likely to be elderly, what material impact would this have on the industry? - None at all.

What is the basis for your claim that the industry is very-high-risk?

[peat]

What is the basis for your claim that the industry is very-high-risk?

Technical analysis can support the notion.
Let us consider Average True Range, a volatility indicator and hence quantifying risk
If we take Summerset and apply the ATR then we clearly see a significant and accelerating rise in that indicators values since Nov 19.

Attachment 11079

. And we can see that Ryman is very similar although Fletcher Building is not. So perhaps he is correct. I havent looked at OCA or ARV obviously MET is shielded by the T/O.

[TFA]

Your unsubstantiated opinion or do you have anything to support this claim?

Retirement investments are in their nature long term ... and I see no evidence at all that the headwind which supports this industry will stop anytime soon. Do you?

China, a country with 1.3 billion people managed to get the virus under control - and they have so far some 3000 dead people. Make this 5000 to allow for the not yet recovered people. If you compare that with NZ - this would equal to roughly 20 dead people in New Zealand, if it gets here as bad as it was in China.

Even if the majority of these 20 people is likely to be elderly, what material impact would this have on the industry? - None at all.

What is the basis for your claim that the industry is very-high-risk?

Maybe not very high risk, but downside risk has certainly got a whole lot higher. The Chinese have made great progress in arresting things, but that does't mean it is over and could escalate again especially as they try to return to normality.
We don't know how this virus is going to play out, however one real scenario is a spanish flu like pandemic.
Do the math's on that using the using WHO's (not Trumps) mortality rates for humans and it would be very bad. However the mortality percentage climbs sharply from about aged 60 upwards (80+ is running over 18% ). They will be doing some serious sensitivity analysis in their projections.

[BlackPeter]

Technical analysis can support the notion.
Let us consider Average True Range, a volatility indicator and hence quantifying risk
If we take Summerset and apply the ATR then we clearly see a significant and accelerating rise in that indicators values since Nov 19.

Attachment 11079

. And we can see that Ryman is very similar although Fletcher Building is not. So perhaps he is correct. I havent looked at OCA or ARV obviously MET is shielded by the T/O.

Looks like we need to clarify some definitions first.

Risk rating of a security is about its long term ability to grow and survive. It has nothing to do with the hype of the day, which is measured by TA.

A good example for risk ratings are the credit ratings as assessed by various credit rating agencies (and lets not get into the quality of their assessments - shall we :

An A rating is low risk.

A B rating would still be investment grade (moderate risk).

C would be high risk

D or below would be Very high risk (default highly likely).

Based on these definitions is Retirement industry clearly not very-high-risk.

But sure - any investment goes up and down, and given the current market mood nearly all stocks got the virus.

This does not make them very-high-risk investments, it just makes them better bargains - day for day.

Short term TA might be a useful tool to time exit and entry into stocks, but it has absolutely nothing to do with the risk assessment of a security.

[peat]

Risk IS price movement.
If price stayed the same there would be no risk , if price moves there is risk ,
Price reflects everything else all combined in one easy number You say all that stuff about ability to survive and grow but that is what price shows. Why consider a hundred variables when there is the perfect one staring you right in the face.
Pfft to the credit agencies. Why use them as a rating when you acknowledge their poor quality.

Risk is up as defined by ATR and NZ retirement villages are not immune to risk or the virus.

PS I don't know why you mention Short Term TA. I can only chart 9 years of SUM but it clearly shows risk is higher than ever! Anything over 5 years is med-long term in my opinion

Attachment 11080

Disclaimer no holding either way.

[dreamcatcher]

@BlackPeter Almost all folks at Retirement Villages are elderly over 60's so presently are imo Very-High-Risk to Covid-19 sure they may escape catching virus. Smart money already left or reduced SUM now watching from sidelines but others buying now could risk capital loss. Off course its how one see's the risks.

Suppose you are not currently buying airline stock ......

(Never Held SUM hold OCA after selling 1/2)

[BlackPeter]

Risk IS price movement.

According to Dr. Google:

Risk is the potential for uncontrolled loss of something of value. ... Risk can also be defined as the intentional interaction with uncertainty. Uncertainty is a potential, unpredictable, and uncontrollable outcome; risk is an aspect of action taken in spite of uncertainty.

So - yes, if I want to sell tomorrow, than the daily share price movement is one risk factor I need to consider as a trader.

However - it is no risk at all for the company.

If I am a long term investor, than any daily share price movement is irrelevant to both myself as well as to the company.

Obviously - you are free to choose the risk definition for a short term trader, but in that case any stock is always very high risk. Still - has nothing to do with the industry, and I don't see the benefit of rating any stock as "very high risk". What would be the point?

[peat]

According to Dr. Google:


So - yes, if I want to sell tomorrow, than the daily share price movement is one risk factor I need to consider as a trader.

However - it is no risk at all for the company.

If I am a long term investor, than any daily share price movement is irrelevant to both myself as well as to the company.

Obviously - you are free to choose the risk definition for a short term trader, but in that case any stock is always very high risk. Still - has nothing to do with the industry, and I don't see the benefit of rating any stock as "very high risk". What would be the point?

It is a risk for the company if price goes lower because it demonstrates that investors are losing faith and the reason they are losing faith is because the business isnt doing so well. Price tells us what the world thinks of the company's prospects. You say its no risk for the day to day operations but it is because apart from their being a high chance that negative sentiment has some basis in reality , price falling also means less availability of capital to expand.

The reason for rating something high-risk is so that one can have expectations based on that. Eg yes I will go for high risk because I am expecting a high return. Or no I wont go for high risk because it is unlikely that the risk I am taking will be sufficiently rewarded for me to take that risk. thats the point.