SUM - Summerset Group

[Beagle]

About sixty something million came from development activities last year, (the bulk of their profit). This being down more than 30% (for any one month ?), may be all they need to show to receive this subsidy.

Another fine piece of journalism from our very own Sylvester the Cat. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12323990

[winner69]

About sixty something million came from development activities last year, (the bulk of their profit). This being down more than 30% (for any one month ?), may be all they need to show to receive this subsidy.

The only way it makes sense (to justify the subsidy) is that cash received from ORAs is way down ...or going to be way down) ...but Q1 sales announcement was pretty upbeat wasn’t it.

Can’t imagine care and village fee revenue collapsing

Never mind they got the $6m odd ....help the cash flows

Said 1,344 staff on application ...last AR mentioned 1,400 employees ...so put their hand up for the max.

Nice they not going to dispense with people .....yet

[Cyclical]

There is no way in hell they could reduce staffing in caregiving, housekeeping, kitchen, laundry.

Imagine too if they had an outbreak in some of the villages and some staff couldn't work due to self isolation...with that in mind, now is not the time for thinning out those frontline staff.

[Oliver Mander]

Kind comments Beagle, especially coming from you as 'retirement sector guru dog'!

The physical paper had some graphs in there too, highlighting the major comparisons. Will put those pics on a website so you can see them.

[Baa_Baa]

Never mind they got the $6m odd ....help the cash flows

$8,870,544

[Beagle]

Kind comments Beagle, especially coming from you as 'retirement sector guru dog'!

The physical paper had some graphs in there too, highlighting the major comparisons. Will put those pics on a website so you can see them.

That would be great. Been looking at MET as you know. Nearly $1.2 billion in embedded value in existing units. Slap a one in 12 year churn on that and they make $100m a year underlying profit without doing anything !...whereas SUM stop development and the majority of their underlying profit disappears....Hmmm

[dreamcatcher]

Unemployment to average above 9 per cent next year with house prices down 11 per cent - economist forecasts

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121...mist-forecasts

[Beagle]

That's SUMwhat cunning, the old announcement late Friday afternoon trick after the market closes but we see you Julian Cook. Even the chief thinks there's a better place for his cash than owning SUM shares at $6.27, selling 250,000 shares. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...858/321014.pdf Might have invested the proceeds in a real growth company at a dirt cheap price that MET his investment objectives better

[peat]

That's SUMwhat cunning, the old announcement late Friday afternoon trick after the market closes but we see you Julian Cook. Even the chief thinks there's a better place for his cash than owning SUM shares at $6.27, selling 250,000 shares. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...858/321014.pdf Might have invested the proceeds in a real growth company at a dirt cheap price that MET his investment objectives better

we all need our insurance policy , that is a pretty good price historically. and he still has quite a few if things get really tough.


this is no longer a dead cat bounce as it has retraced a full 50% of the downward movement. so if we are in a bear market then it is a fully fledged correction and of course they often go to 61.8% or even higher before they resume the downtrend. it is however , as many things are right now, starting to look peaky to me at this 50% level showing signs of losing momentum.

Attachment 11333

[trader_jackson]

Better off to DYOR. "Past performance is no guarantee of future performance" But think about this. How many times in your life have you read that disclaimer ?
Have you ever read this one that I have long believed is the truth "Past performance is no guarantee of future performance but it is the very best guide we have" ?

Reason for this rant. DYOR is not that hard, just look at a companies history and extrapolate things out and adjust for known current economic factors.
All that suggests to me is SUM is on for a cracker year in 2020. Maybe $150m underlying profit ?

Shares were ~ $8 in mid 2018. Are they really that expensive now given the real estate pendulum has swung so dramatically towards growth again compared to back then ?...or maybe they are really cheap ? $150m would give eps of 66 cps and put SUM on a forward PE of just 13.6 at $8.98.

13.6 with their track record of eps growth. Hmmmm

Exactly 2 months ago this was posted to the day this was posted... The share price was $9.12, Julian was being hailed as a great man (as was the case for the past several years), he could do no wrong. Now he is dumping SUM shares - no surprise given how unbelievably high the share price is relative to NTA which I doubt would grow in FY21.

I had often pointed out that "Past performance is no guarantee of future performance", I really couldn't have put it better myself as barely a few days later when SUM announced its full year result, and that it expected no growth in FY21... then sh*t really hit the fan, but sum companies were already struggling prior to that.

But its not as if all retirement operators are like SUM... NZX website telling me ARV has returned over 16% in the past 52 weeks.