SUM - Summerset Group

[Baa_Baa]

A lot of people think he has to much on his plate and is getting too old. I note its his last year of tenure. Probably a good idea he stays on this year and helps steer the ship through the one in one hundred year storm. Frankly he's made it crystal clear they will be badly affected by this virus so I see no reason for this to trade at a premium to NTA, especially when you start thinking about what Covid 19 adjusted NTA might be, ($4 anyone ?). Talk of no dividend tells you this is going to have a significant impact, and he must be talking substantial impact because he mentions it twice and then there's talk of a prolonged downturn.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...315/321512.pdf

MET must be absolute genius's to only be looking at a 4-5% underlying profit impact this year eh Winner. Sounds like Rob and Julian softening people up for a substantial, maybe 40% drop in profit

Your hyperbole against SUM, after being a strong and vocal advocate, and cross promotion of MET is tiresome imo. I know this won’t stop you doing it and it’s likely to prompt a comprehensive rebuttal, but I do want to say that it is imo not adding to your reputation as a reliable source of independent thinking, it is reinforcing your reputation as a flip flop momentum trader who leverages these forums only to talk your own book. Step back a bit, open your mind and look at how your messaging might be perceived. Just saying.

[Beagle]

The situation and narrative from SUM has changed dramatically in the last two months. SUM were well positioned with a really extensive land bank before Covid 19 and the exact things (high gearing and a vast land bank) that were working so well for them before Covid 19 are now working against them. Bare undeveloped land values get smashed in a deep recession and then there's the holding costs. Many people on here were profoundly shocked by Julian Cook's no growth comment when they announced their FY19 result in late February 2020.

Now they've withdrawn guidance, talking about substantial effects and a protracted period of difficult trading and are even talking about cancelling the dividend and even Rob Campbell is retiring after this current term...welcome to a completely new reality mate....but you imply that there has not been a seismic shift in their outlook. What next, you'll tell me the situation hasn't changed at AIR either Welcome to our new reality, there's pre Covid 19 and post Covid 19.

[Leftfield]

Your hyperbole against SUM, after being a strong and vocal advocate, and cross promotion of MET is tiresome imo. .... it is reinforcing your reputation as a flip flop momentum trader who leverages these forums only to talk your own book. Step back a bit, open your mind and look at how your messaging might be perceived. Just saying.

Hear. Hear.

[Blue Skies]

Your hyperbole against SUM, after being a strong and vocal advocate, and cross promotion of MET is tiresome imo. I know this won’t stop you doing it and it’s likely to prompt a comprehensive rebuttal, but I do want to say that it is imo not adding to your reputation as a reliable source of independent thinking, it is reinforcing your reputation as a flip flop momentum trader who leverages these forums only to talk your own book. Step back a bit, open your mind and look at how your messaging might be perceived. Just saying.

Much as I respect Beagles so it disappoints me to say this, think it's what many were thinking & someone needed to say it.

[bull....]

Your hyperbole against SUM, after being a strong and vocal advocate, and cross promotion of MET is tiresome imo. I know this won’t stop you doing it and it’s likely to prompt a comprehensive rebuttal, but I do want to say that it is imo not adding to your reputation as a reliable source of independent thinking, it is reinforcing your reputation as a flip flop momentum trader who leverages these forums only to talk your own book. Step back a bit, open your mind and look at how your messaging might be perceived. Just saying.

well said , might i add gets very upset when someone has an opposing view lol. should just admit like i do that your a trader

[Beagle]

Whatever...if you can't see the fundamental shift in SUM I can't help you so I'll leave you in peace to enjoy their future "growth".

I have been a shareholder for many years so its saddens me to see the company stop growing. For the record, I don't have a short position in SUM and never have held one.

I can see why Coutta1 and other regular posters are taking a long sabbatical from posting on here.

[peat]

Beagle, I think you do need to try to understand that people are emotionally attached to shares and are unable to perform lightning volte-faces as you are.
Hence your strong advocacy or negativity comes across as pumping , or dumping, (P+D) and it has been demonstrated that your dumping can happen pretty quickly after a pumping. Certainly your statements regarding any long term ownership of any company can now no longer be accepted at face value and hence the accusations of being a momentum trader.

Of course these descriptions of investment style don't ultimately matter to any of us here - or shouldn't - and your relationship with the taxman is your own and given this is a share trading website it is all perfectly reasonable that you buy and sell within any timeframe. However your declaration of position in a stock needs to be made more frequently or even on every post so as to more clearly reject any accusations of said P+D.

Baa baa and others , you could start to accept Beagles undoubted prescience more gracefully and not hold him to what he said last week or even yesterday. He is clearly maximising the use of his capital with no concerns about divesting when the wind changes. Examine why you are a holder and feel less inertia about your position with of course regard to your own investment style.

The forum is a lot stronger because of Beagles perceptive analysis and I would certainly buy units in his mutual fund

[Balance]

Beagle, I think you do need to try to understand that people are emotionally attached to shares and are unable to perform lightning volte-faces as you are.
Hence your strong advocacy or negativity comes across as pumping , or dumping, (P+D) and it has been demonstrated that your dumping can happen pretty quickly after a pumping. Certainly your statements regarding any long term ownership of any company can now no longer be accepted at face value and hence the accusations of being a momentum trader.

Of course these descriptions of investment style don't ultimately matter to any of us here - or shouldn't - and your relationship with the taxman is your own and given this is a share trading website it is all perfectly reasonable that you buy and sell within any timeframe. However your declaration of position in a stock needs to be made more frequently or even on every post so as to more clearly reject any accusations of said P+D.

Baa baa and others , you could start to accept Beagles undoubted prescience more gracefully and not hold him to what he said last week or even yesterday. He is clearly maximising the use of his capital with no concerns about divesting when the wind changes. Examine why you are a holder and feel less inertia about your position with of course regard to your own investment style.

The forum is a lot stronger because of Beagles perceptive analysis and I would certainly buy units in his mutual fund

Good post, peat to put things in perspective.

For those who view Beagle as a trader, then treat his comments in that context.

And NEVER EVER FALL IN LOVE WITH A STOCK AND STAY IN LOVE! Clouds your judgement.

[Beagle]

Beagle, I think you do need to try to understand that people are emotionally attached to shares and are unable to perform lightning volte-faces as you are.
Hence your strong advocacy or negativity comes across as pumping , or dumping, (P+D) and it has been demonstrated that your dumping can happen pretty quickly after a pumping. Certainly your statements regarding any long term ownership of any company can now no longer be accepted at face value and hence the accusations of being a momentum trader.

Of course these descriptions of investment style don't ultimately matter to any of us here - or shouldn't - and your relationship with the taxman is your own and given this is a share trading website it is all perfectly reasonable that you buy and sell within any timeframe. However your declaration of position in a stock needs to be made more frequently or even on every post so as to more clearly reject any accusations of said P+D.

Baa baa and others , you could start to accept Beagles undoubted prescience more gracefully and not hold him to what he said last week or even yesterday. He is clearly maximising the use of his capital with no concerns about divesting when the wind changes. Examine why you are a holder and feel less inertia about your position with of course regard to your own investment style.

The forum is a lot stronger because of Beagles perceptive analysis and I would certainly buy units in his mutual fund

Good post, peat to put things in perspective.

For those who view Beagle as a trader, then treat his comments in that context.

And NEVER EVER FALL IN LOVE WITH A STOCK AND STAY IN LOVE! Clouds your judgement.

Thanks Peat and Balance.


To be clear, I have owned SUM for a very long time and I am gutted at the fundamental breakdown in their long term growth path.

The whole market was profoundly shocked by Julian Cook's comment of no growth for FY20, (and should be concerned that this was issued pre Covid 19) and this for a company that has been growing very strongly ever since it listed in 2011.

Despite long term attraction to SUM's fundamental's I have learned that there is no point getting emotional about stocks. They're a business and when there's a fundamental sea change in the business like there has been with Covid 19 you need to reassess how your company will perform going ahead when such a fundamental change occurs. This is why I recently sold SUM.

I find it incredibly hard to find value in this market the way its bounced so strongly off its March 23 low so if I was running an investment fund, (thanks for your support Peat) it would be sitting with a LOT of cash at present.

The odd time I have taken a short position I have declared that and for the record I am not interested in trying to talk this down as its at least $2 above where I see fair value and there's no way in the world I am anywhere near arrogant enough to think expressing my opinion on here or anywhere else would move the stock any thing like that, if at all, so my recently updated post Covid 19 opinion of SUM is completely unbiased, unlike some of the other recent comments on here.

[Snow Leopard]

...And NEVER EVER FALL IN LOVE WITH A STOCK AND STAY IN LOVE! Clouds your judgement.

But Beagle gets more emotionally involved than most!