SUM - Summerset Group

[winner69]

Nice chart showing the resilience of the sector
Attachment 11856

Yes indeed ....that's why RR-NUPPCA will look pretty healthy

[trader_jackson]

Bad eh -- others to follow (esp that Arvida

For those who have bull on Ignore here's what he posted from the NZ Herald

Coronavirus has influenced valuations of one retirement giant's properties to such an extent that last year's gains in its national property portfolio have been turned into falls and the bottom-line profit has been reduced to nearly zero.

ARV CEO hovering up ARV shares it has been disclosed... dropped nearly a quarter of a million bucks buying more...
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...076/328495.pdf
Maybe ARV isn't quite as badly impacted as sum others? A vote of confidence in ARV at the very least... meanwhile I think the CEO of sum other listed operators was cashing out big time a few months back...? Anyhow, I'll stop banging on about ARV!

[Beagle]

From underlying profits, to development margins... alot of metrics things lower or the lowest even in 3 years... and possibly the first time in sum time that SUM's equity is down... although one thing that is noticeably up is the debt ratio now nearing 36%.
Not exactly a growth company these days it would appear...
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358066

I dispute that...there is strong growth in one part of the business, went from $500m to $655m, can you guess what it is ? ...yes you guess it Debt ! Just keep borrowing more...what could possible go wrong
Development margins and IFRS profit under serious pressure when just last week the REINZ said medium house prices in N.Z. were up 15% year on year to July 2020 ? Go figure ? Just as well they took substantial support from the Govt's wage subsidy program. Disc: No position.

[winner69]

I dispute that...there is strong growth in one part of the business, went from $500m to $655m, can you guess what it is ?
Development margins and IFRS profit under serious pressure when just last week the REINZ said medium house prices in N.Z. were up 15% year on year to July 2020. Go figure. Just as well they took substantial support from the Govt's wage subsidy program.
Disc: No position.

And Oceania has strong debt growth as well ....did I get that answer right?

[Beagle]

And Oceania has strong debt growth as well ....did I get that answer right?

True that but OCA's cash flow was up 11.3% and SUM's was down. From memory OCA's development margin was about 33% and SUM's now 22% and yet SUM is on nearly double OCA's forward underlying earnings multiple despite not being able to sell what they "deliver", (a euphemistic term if ever there was one), each year for several years now. Hmmm On a relative basis none of this makes any sense to me which is why I remain out.
But...the market clearly loves the result so obviously there is something I am not seeing...but then again SUM is presently priced at $7.76 which is right on the very upper limit on the very well established 40-60% price relativity of RYM which is currently $12.80.

Coutta would argue his GOLD STANDARD suggests SUM is not worth more than half a RYM share and would argue fair value using this benchmark is $12.80 / 2 = $6.40 and I would agree. I therefore think SUM is a SELL at the current price.

[Getty]

Do your SUMs'
SUMmer may be over.

Dr JPG

Terms of trade for elderly.
Payment MUST be made before EXPIRY.

[macduffy]

Do your SUMs'
SUMmer may be over.

Dr JPG

Terms of trade for elderly.
Payment MUST be made before EXPIRY.

I don't know what that is all about...… but, bear in mind when looking at SUM's result that the property valuation is just one valuer's conservative opinion. As we look through annual increases in these values to underlying profit, so we should do likewise here. Unless, of course, we take the view that these are permanent falls, in which case - rush for the exits!

Disc: Continuing to hold.

[Baa_Baa]

I don't know what that is all about...… but, bear in mind when looking at SUM's result that the property valuation is just one valuer's conservative opinion. As we look through annual increases in these values to underlying profit, so we should do likewise here. Unless, of course, we take the view that these are permanent falls, in which case - rush for the exits!

Disc: Continuing to hold.

Agree, it's good company and like the others have taken a conservative valuation on property which hits the books but is not really real as it's not realised. People go on about how important 'underlying earnings' are, the company also stresses that (and they beat their upper end projection) and then people ignore it and focus on IFRS when it suits them. I reckon a lot of punters will see only that underlying profit is a 'beat forecast' and there's a dividend and be happy holding. Enough for me anyway, happy holder.

[Getty]

History is with you.
Kiwi's have done very well from property, hence it being a favourite choice.
I also think the listed rest home sector will receive investment from those who have managed their own rentals, but feel they are getting on a bit, and will sell out to transfer into this sector, for ready liquidity should they, or family need it.
How long that trend continues, is anyone's guess.

[Beagle]

NTA is $4.91. Does it deserve to be trading at a 58% premium to NTA ?, that as they say is the $64,000 question.