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29-10-2020, 08:21 AM
#9221
Originally Posted by Beagle
The dog is calling it. R.I.P Coutts relativity theorem. In my opinion it will soon be relegated to the dustbin of history as the best sticking theory on price relativity that never had any factual basis behind it. In the long run the market is a weighing machine, not a voting machine and earnings do matter.
That saying In the long run the market is a weighing machine, not a voting machine may have meant something last century but this century it’s just a hackneyed meaningless saying.
Insofar as ‘value investing’ goes the last decade has been devastating, and even value investing legends have lost their mojo.
These days the weighing machine / voting machine thing is only used by those (generally the mature old fashioned types) who want to justify their not so good investments and and use it as an excuse to hang in there in the hope that things will come right ....one day
Last edited by winner69; 29-10-2020 at 08:58 AM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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29-10-2020, 09:28 AM
#9222
Earnings matter mate. The dot.com bubble taught us that 20 years ago. Every generation along come a new bunch of investors who think earnings don't matter...quite a few of them in the US think they have all new and more correct ways to value tech companies now, many of whom weren't around to learn the lesson of 2000 - 2001 when the Nasdaq lost 90% of its value...this new generation...they'll get their lesson soon enough.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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29-10-2020, 09:36 AM
#9223
Back on thread topic then
Summerset’s earnings are pretty good ....and if you believe that voting / weighing hogwash probably its weight is about right at the moment .....but maybe should watch it’s diet
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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29-10-2020, 09:43 AM
#9224
Yeah I think it is about right at the moment for a booming real estate market. Forward underlying earnings of about 21 seems to be a fair weight to me.
I don't like paying fair value for stocks though...always hunting for GARP stocks. (Growth at a reasonable price) I suppose you could make the case SUM is a GARP stock though seeing as the average PE of the market must be at least 30.
Last edited by Beagle; 29-10-2020 at 09:44 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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29-10-2020, 12:30 PM
#9225
Originally Posted by Beagle
Yeah I think it is about right at the moment for a booming real estate market. Forward underlying earnings of about 21 seems to be a fair weight to me.
I don't like paying fair value for stocks though...always hunting for GARP stocks. (Growth at a reasonable price) I suppose you could make the case SUM is a GARP stock though seeing as the average PE of the market must be at least 30.
"Growth at a reasonable price" sounds like "paying fair value" - for certain stocks, to me. All in the stock selection?
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09-11-2020, 08:37 AM
#9226
Cook going
well done, leaving on a high.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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09-11-2020, 08:38 AM
#9227
Julian the $2.1 billion man retiring
Well deserved
Summerset will still be in good hands though with Scott in control
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...826/334521.pdf
Last edited by winner69; 09-11-2020 at 08:39 AM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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09-11-2020, 10:56 AM
#9228
Originally Posted by peat
Cook going
well done, leaving on a high.
I'm feeling so sad, not.
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09-11-2020, 11:58 AM
#9229
Julian Cook ran a very tight ship when it came to costs that's for sure. I thought he was a likeable rogue and if I become a shareholder again I will miss chatting to him at the annual meeting. I wish him well for the future. If I remember correctly Rob Campbell is not standing for reelection at the next annual meeting so its a real changing of the guard at Summerset.
Scott strikes me as a very good strategic thinker. I think the company is in good hands with him.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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09-11-2020, 12:09 PM
#9230
Originally Posted by peat
Cook going
well done, leaving on a high.
Leaving on a high ........no, just after the first stage of Summerset becoming great
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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