But that's the point, don't you see?
This bloke Dominick doesn't have any better clue than I do about what's going to happen in 2021.
And given that after lockdown in 2020 he predicted property prices would drop by 15%, when actually they rose by 15%, his credibility is zero, or even negative.
In fact, I don't know how he still has a job. If he worked for me as a forecaster, I'd sack him.
Newspapers are driven by headlines but economists usually have more detail in the background on the 'headline' that doesn't get reported.
Economists don't provide predictions - they don't have a crystal ball. I have heard many of them speak and there is always a lot more to it than the headline suggests.
Newspapers are driven by headlines but economists usually have more detail in the background on the 'headline' that doesn't get reported.
Economists don't provide predictions - they don't have a crystal ball. I have heard many of them speak and there is always a lot more to it than the headline suggests.
Yes, economists make forecasts and not predictions
But if ‘predictions’ are about estimating the outcomes for unseen data (as opposed to forecasts based on time series data) one could say that it these strange times with unknown future the likes of Dominic are actually ‘predicting’ things like house prices in the future.
Bank economists are a funny lot - often their forecasts and commentaries are made to support what their masters (the banks) want the politicians, RBNZ etc to hear (a form of persuasion to get outcomes the banks want)
Whatever it will good for OCA if property prices rise by 10% plus
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Judging by the SP appreciation in the past few weeks, this news might not be 'news' to some. Leaky ship?
Not necessarily. How about prospective buyers who are told only x units are not under contract. These prospective buyers are not all applecheeked grannies knitting in the rocking chair. Most of them have a social media presence these days and information circles the world in nanoseconds. One property related Facebook group I belong to has tens of thousands NZ members, for example.
Judging by the SP appreciation in the past few weeks, this news might not be 'news' to some. Leaky ship?
I guess a lot of SUM staff, residents and visitors / observers will know how much current interest there is in the offering. More and busy open days, sales people saying more often - sorry, this apartment is already taken ...
Similar like with assessing the business for a retailer ... if people notice full shops and long checkout queues and packed parking lots in front of the shop ... it is not necessarily leaking insider information which gets investors to buy in :
Don't think either the interest is limited to SUM ... though they obviously have the benefit of a HUGE land bank.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
Judging by the SP appreciation in the past few weeks, this news might not be 'news' to some. Leaky ship?
I have spoken with tradies on site for Summerset, Bupa and OCA and they mentioned Sum were the most on to it to deal with in regards to knowing what was happening, especially post Covid. They said they dont want to deal with Ryman.......
Originally Posted by TideMan
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