SUM - Summerset Group

[Beagle]

Continuing to revert to the mean aye winner, now around 53.6% relative to RYM, will be completely reverted by end of Nov, maybe even Inverted.Lol

LOL inverted I love it. Most overseas buyers can't buy residential property from next Monday, wonder what effect that will have on SUM ?

[winner69]

Continuing to revert to the mean aye winner, now around 53.6% relative to RYM, will be completely reverted by end of Nov, maybe even Inverted.Lol

That 53.6% is really half in Synlait lingo

[dobby41]

Most overseas buyers can't buy residential property from next Monday, wonder what effect that will have on SUM ?

Why would it have any effect?
Surely overseas buyers don't buy SUM properties?
Or are you thinking it will drop house prices in general? Given everyone keeps saying that overseas buyers buy few of our houses removing them shouldn't make much difference?

[Entrep]

Why would it have any effect?
Surely overseas buyers don't buy SUM properties?
Or are you thinking it will drop house prices in general? Given everyone keeps saying that overseas buyers buy few of our houses removing them shouldn't make much difference?

From what I can tell this event already seems to be priced into the Auckland market. I see property prices flat or down slightly for the next couple of years.

[dobby41]

From what I can tell this event already seems to be priced into the Auckland market. I see property prices flat or down slightly for the next couple of years.

This and a number of other events!

[Beagle]

Why would it have any effect?
Surely overseas buyers don't buy SUM properties?
Or are you thinking it will drop house prices in general? Given everyone keeps saying that overseas buyers buy few of our houses removing them shouldn't make much difference?

From what I can tell this event already seems to be priced into the Auckland market. I see property prices flat or down slightly for the next couple of years.

Auckland market has gone flat and essentially stayed close to a medium price of $850K for more than 18 months as reported by the Herald. There is great debate exactly how many homes are sold to overseas buyers but one thing is for sure, these new regulations cannot help. As I posted recently I think SUM are a little stuck with some of their units in as much as their average price may not be all that much below the average price of the surrounding suburbs. SUM have a sales problem with their units and these latest regulations cannot help that, in as much as it just got a little bit harder for retired folks to sell their home at a price they find acceptable so they can afford to buy one of SUM's units.

My expectations are that the Auckland market for the foreseeable future will stay flat (losing value in real inflation adjusted terms at circa 2.0% per annum) or decline very slightly, plus loss of value in inflation adjusted terms. Volumes may decline slightly due to overseas buyers being taken out of the market.

I think this affects SUM more than others because they have two big new developments in Auckland that they appear to be struggling to sell down, (Ellerslie and Hobsonville).

P.S. Talking with one of Auckland's most experienced real estate agents this morning, (more than 30 years experience) on a clients development deal the subject of Auckland's flat market came up. The sweet spot for easy sales in Auckland is currently $650-$750K. Over $900K is noticeably more difficult. Interesting anecdotal evidence on why higher priced apartments are struggling a bit...

[oldtech]

Both SUM and RYM have taken a beating this month.

SUM started at $7.81 (closing price on 28/09) and has closed today at $6.94; RYM started at $14.00 and has closed today at $12.78. By my calculations this means SUM is down by 11.1% and RYM is down 8.7%.

So neither looking particularly flash

[iceman]

Too right oldtech, Been a tough month for RYM & SUM like so many other shares that I follow.

But also interesting how I could rewrite your post by changing the time frame being looked at from 1 month to 12 months :

"Both SUM & RYM have had a great last 12 months. Since 17/10/17 SUM is up 17.87% and RYM 30.23%. Both looking extremely good "

[oldtech]

Too right oldtech, Been a tough month for RYM & SUM like so many other shares that I follow.

But also interesting how I could rewrite your post by changing the time frame being looked at from 1 month to 12 months :

"Both SUM & RYM have had a great last 12 months. Since 17/10/17 SUM is up 17.87% and RYM 30.23%. Both looking extremely good "

Always look on the bright side of life!

Very true iceman.

[Bjauck]

LOL inverted I love it. Most overseas buyers can't buy residential property from next Monday, wonder what effect that will have on SUM ?

The overseas foreign buyers restrictions should have been introduced years ago when prices were charging their way up. They are now introduced when prices have stabilised anyway - so the overseas buyers may well have lost interest in the NZ housing market anyway! The easy bucks have already made by the overseas investors.