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  1. #7481
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Big problem is that too many on here read the newspapers and pay homage to the bank economists who generally push the narrative that suits their employer bank’s needs. A bit of gaming the RBNZ I reckon.

    I’ve just read a detailed report from an independent economist / commentator who has no such barrow to push.

    The analysis has the impacts on the housing market of such things as foreign buyers, migration, interest rates, banks lending criteria, amount of lending, house sales activity, supply and demand, employment, sections, government policy and a raft of other things

    The conclusion — the number of house sales will remain choppy over the next year but we’ll likely see more property sales than pcp and that the HPI could increase by 5% over the same period

    No link sorry, it’s subscription based and costs money ...but at least a truly independent view of somebody who has had a pretty good track record over the years re housing things.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #7482
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    NZ didn’t do too badly through this global GFC thing ....as we were already in recession when that hit

    Whatever we did have 5 years of house price ‘recession’ (duration to get back to previous peak)

    But the likes of Ryman kept building things and selling things and it’s company value (book value) kept increasing in spite of lower property prices. Better measure of value than this fandangled underlying earnings thing
    Another good historical fact that those with a myopic view will rather "conveniently" overlook.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #7483
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Big problem is that too many on here read the newspapers and pay homage to the bank economists who generally push the narrative that suits their employer bank’s needs. A bit of gaming the RBNZ I reckon.

    I’ve just read a detailed report from an independent economist / commentator who has no such barrow to push.

    The analysis has the impacts on the housing market of such things as foreign buyers, migration, interest rates, banks lending criteria, amount of lending, house sales activity, supply and demand, employment, sections, government policy and a raft of other things

    The conclusion — the number of house sales will remain choppy over the next year but we’ll likely see more property sales than pcp and that the HPI could increase by 5% over the same period

    No link sorry, it’s subscription based and costs money ...but at least a truly independent view of somebody who has had a pretty good track record over the years re housing things.
    But the experts on here tell us the property market is already crashing lol
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #7484
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    But the experts on here tell us the property market is already crashing lol
    They listen to the media ....never believe everything the ‘popular’ media tell you....bad for your health

    Bank economists / commentators are even worse .....even suck in guru broker analysts
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #7485
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    But the experts on here tell us the property market is already crashing lol
    Its time for a picture (hopefully will save some posters many words):

  6. #7486
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    There’s an updated one coming out in next day or so

    A few Rs in circles ...does that mean RECORD HIGH

    but what that guy Newton say
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #7487
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    But the experts on here tell us the property market is already crashing lol
    Crashing?
    Re-adjusting in a few areas, slowing in some but generally robust.

  8. #7488
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    Quote Originally Posted by dobby41 View Post
    Crashing?
    Re-adjusting in a few areas, slowing in some but generally robust.
    Interest rate is still low and immigration's policy has not changed. Is housing shortage still in issue? So may be a little bit longer to go for some places.

  9. #7489
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    Quote Originally Posted by longy View Post
    Interest rate is still low and immigration's policy has not changed. Is housing shortage still in issue? So may be a little bit longer to go for some places.
    Exactly - not crashing

  10. #7490
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    Quote Originally Posted by dobby41 View Post
    Exactly - not crashing
    Yes more like correcting , more in some areas then others. A classic signal below.

    "However, Auckland saw the median number of days to sell a property increase by 8 days from 49 to 57 the highest number of days to sell since February 2009."



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