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  1. #7811
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Kingfish fund managers think so and have added significantly to their position.
    Was wondering what caused the slump in SUM's sp.
    Now I know,thanks.

  2. #7812
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    From those REINZ reports HPI for April is DOWN 1.2% from March (akl down 2.1% and rest of NZ down 0.4%)

    Number of sales in April down 11% from a year ago and numbers have trending down for a whole now. High correlation between number of house sales and house prices so current trend a bit of a worry....unless the number of sales pick up from here.

    Doesn’t always to get carried away by the headlines .....esp comparing things to a year ago.
    Wow that's a massive monthly drop in Auckland, off the back of a 0.5% drop last month. Hopefully it rebounds soon because as long as Auckland's house prices continue to fall this fast the regional cities will surely follow.

  3. #7813
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    ...... Number of sales in April down 11% from a year ago and numbers have trending down for a whole now. High correlation between number of house sales and house prices so current trend a bit of a worry....unless the number of sales pick up from here.

    Doesn’t always to get carried away by the headlines .....esp comparing things to a year ago.
    Some of that downtrend in sales is due to residential property investors not buying and / or not building new. Reserve Bank reports monthly new bank lending for PIs (and other groups). Each $billion down per month on lending to PIs represents several thousand homes not bought by them. Each month. And that class of lending is down $1.7billion per month since peak in mid 2016.

    It's a complex market of course, but those numbers are significant, not least to REAs. Not that the media ever reports them.

    And if people want to know why PIs are not buying, and why plenty are selling up, take a glance at the new Healthy Homes Regs coming into force in a few weeks.

    http://www.legislation.govt.nz/regul...est/whole.html

  4. #7814
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Was wondering what caused the slump in SUM's sp.
    Now I know,thanks.
    Good one percy ...Rey perceptive of you
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #7815
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by allfromacell View Post
    Wow that's a massive monthly drop in Auckland, off the back of a 0.5% drop last month. Hopefully it rebounds soon because as long as Auckland's house prices continue to fall this fast the regional cities will surely follow.
    The medium price hasn't dropped over the last year, see the image clearly depicted in Minimoke's post 7805 which shows Auckland is flat and while you're looking at that you will notice that the medium national price is up 6.4% year on year. The facts are diametrically opposed to your baseless opinion.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #7816
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    Interesting stats on the REINZ, excluding the Auckland prices YoY median is up 7.6% and Auckland at a flat 0%. REINZ HPI index is a better measure of the house prices because medians can be skewed by a few numbers on either side being the anomaly especially when less houses are sold. HPI includes house sales that are unconditional so a bit more forward looking.

    Auckland down 4.4% on the last year is the biggest one, and its likely the lack of investors propping up markets in the leafy suburbs as the RBNZ, less funding for investors https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/c31. I'm sure the first home buyers will not be able to afford on the levels of the investors so the mix of sales is changing to the lower end of the market.

    I think if you are in SUM for the long haul then you have the chance now to double down. People will still be retiring and will still need houses to move into. The company is good enough to be astute to sell to those requiring it even if sales are weaker until we reach the point that the retirement timebomb explodes http://www.superseniors.msd.govt.nz/...tatistics.html

    At a PE of about 13, its probably the best value you'll get out there right now.

  7. #7817
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    If they can do $110m underlying profit this year that puts them on a forward PE of just 11.5.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #7818
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    The medium price hasn't dropped over the last year, see the image clearly depicted in Minimoke's post 7805 which shows Auckland is flat and while you're looking at that you will notice that the medium national price is up 6.4% year on year. The facts are diametrically opposed to your baseless opinion.
    I'm basing my opinion on the HPI data as it's the most accurate publicly available data we have. If you look back on the past couple of months you'll see the NZ excluding Auckland HPI hasn't been to flash and the Auckland rate is falling off a cliff.

    I agree the regional market has held up well, but if Auckland continues to fall at anything near the rate it has over March & April it would be naive to think the region's won't be effected. Using the HPI is a much better way of comparing apples to apples.

    Regardless, I think SUM is a good buy here and hold quite a few. I do however think that the Auckland property market slow down is significantly responsible for the sector SP slowdown.

  9. #7819
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    Quote Originally Posted by allfromacell View Post
    I'm basing my opinion on the HPI data as it's the most accurate publicly available data we have. If you look back on the past couple of months you'll see the NZ excluding Auckland HPI hasn't been to flash and the Auckland rate is falling off a cliff.

    I agree the regional market has held up well, but if Auckland continues to fall at anything near the rate it has over March & April it would be naive to think the region's won't be effected. Using the HPI is a much better way of comparing apples to apples.

    Regardless, I think SUM is a good buy here and hold quite a few. I do however think that the Auckland property market slow down is significantly responsible for the sector SP slowdown.
    I agree to a degree, it is the Auckland overshoot in perceptions ahead of the stats...flat property market is a dangerous place for confidence.

  10. #7820
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    looks ready for the next leg down along with other village stocks. property sales figures just released did not look pretty
    one step ahead of the herd

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