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  1. #9051
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    Nowadays a company that can make profit is good enough.

  2. #9052
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Better forecast than I expected, (in no small way assisted by the Govt grant). If they can do $90m underlying for the year that's 39.5 cps...choose your PE.
    $85m underlying would be 37.3 cps. Maybe its a fair value hold at the current price but Harbour are usually pretty astute so if I was a holder I'd be worried about them letting more go and effectively putting some sort of temporary soft ceiling on the share price.

    They have such a massive land bank and are expanding into Melbourne...what could possibly go wrong...
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #9053
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Over the long term a pretty solid looking chart ...recent quarters could look better but heck this is a long term story

    Cant have too much spare land .... it'l still be there when they want it
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    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #9054
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    In Feb (pre-virus) Julian said 'Looking ahead, Mr Cook said the business was not expecting underlying profit growth in 2020, largely due to the investment in care wages and development margins returning to the medium-term guidance of 20% to 25%'

    Many were aghast --- the screeches of horror are still echoing around the world

    So today Julian saying H1 is going to be 6% down on last year - 6% down with added virus impacts is bloody amazing stuff

    Could go the old 'look through covid jmpacts' trick way and say underlying growth is probably UP on last year (H!20 only $3m down on H119)

    And the market seems to like it today ....maybe the screeches have stopped echoing
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #9055
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    checking up on Harbour Asset commentary in case they said something about Summerset couldn't help but notice this chart

    VALUE HASN'T BEEN THE WAY TO GO LATELY (if you want to beat the market) .... and not likely to improve
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #9056
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    SUM still one of Harbour's biggest holdings ..... selling some I think is probably just a bit of reweighting (or maybe they have had a few investors bail from their funds)
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #9057
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Over the long term a pretty solid looking chart ...recent quarters could look better but heck this is a long term story

    Cant have too much spare land .... it'l still be there when they want it
    That black line heading down for the last 3 years has to be an ongoing worry. Despite shutting down construction for 6 weeks the company "delivered" 139 units, (code speak for completed) but sold only 128 new units despite having record level's of unsold new stock as at 31 December 2019. What is wrong with some of their stock of hundreds of new units that they appear unable to sell from the last few years of over-building ?
    The pattern of the last 4 years continues...unable to sell as many units as they are building (even when building is interrupted for 6 weeks).

    But no worries... at the annual meeting in April 2019 they told us in a couple of years they plan to be building 600 units a year. That's bound to fix the problem of unsold new units

    Don't worry about buying land in the deepest recession since the GFC at depressed prices as they have about 15 years supply at the current build rate bought when land prices were booming. Talk about an opportunity squandered ! But no worries, lets raise even more debt and buy even more land especially in Melbourne....what could possibly go wrong ?

    I'd like to like SUM again...if I could find SUM thing about their operations that was likeable !
    Last edited by Beagle; 09-07-2020 at 12:46 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #9058
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    Look on the bright side, Beagle. People are getting older every day.


  9. #9059
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    Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today is a gift. That is why it is called present

  10. #9060
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    I see Kingfish Fund still got plenty of Summerset shares

    They seem to be picking heaps more winners than losers these days

    I see Alistair Ryan is Chair of Kingfish --probably told his people that MET was really a dog and SUM a better long term bet in the sector
    Last edited by winner69; 09-07-2020 at 03:30 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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