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02-07-2019, 09:30 PM
#8021
Wonder how many Aust, Chinese or Indians would use retirement villages as family generally care for their elders or may simply go home ? plus -8600 kiwi leaving.
In the November 2018 year, the provisional migration estimates by country of last permanent residence showed:
- 19 percent of migrant arrivals were from Australia, of which 64 percent were New Zealand citizens and 25 percent were Australian citizens
- 11 percent were from China
- 10 percent were from India
- 8 percent were from the United Kingdom.Year ended Nov 2018
35800 kiwi Arrivals
44400 kiwi Departures ..........kiwi loss of -8600
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02-07-2019, 10:05 PM
#8022
Originally Posted by dreamcatcher
Wonder how many Aust, Chinese or Indians would use retirement villages as family generally care for their elders or may simply go home ? plus -8600 kiwi leaving.
In the November 2018 year, the provisional migration estimates by country of last permanent residence showed:
- 19 percent of migrant arrivals were from Australia, of which 64 percent were New Zealand citizens and 25 percent were Australian citizens
- 11 percent were from China
- 10 percent were from India
- 8 percent were from the United Kingdom.Year ended Nov 2018
35800 kiwi Arrivals
44400 kiwi Departures ..........kiwi loss of -8600
Great detail. Thank you Dreamcatcher.
What about the money side... if 2 leave with 100k spending money and 2 arrive with
500k spending money... do the kiwis leaving take all their assets or leave a huge portion...
Ages of people leaving versus ages of people arriving. Intended stay time...
The have nots and the haves.
Like to see this data.
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02-07-2019, 10:41 PM
#8023
Originally Posted by dreamcatcher
Wonder how many Aust, Chinese or Indians would use retirement villages as family generally care for their elders or may simply go home ? plus -8600 kiwi leaving.
In the November 2018 year, the provisional migration estimates by country of last permanent residence showed:
- 19 percent of migrant arrivals were from Australia, of which 64 percent were New Zealand citizens and 25 percent were Australian citizens
- 11 percent were from China
- 10 percent were from India
- 8 percent were from the United Kingdom.Year ended Nov 2018
35800 kiwi Arrivals
44400 kiwi Departures ..........kiwi loss of -8600
Are you telling us that we have already reverted to net outward migration? Perhaps that is why Phil Twyford had trouble selling houses?
SUM needs increasing house prices to keep jacking up its resale values.
Now, there is a conumdrum (or is it Catch 54?). Labour has to sell more Kiwi Build to look successful and to fend off The Crusher. The best way to do that is to increase the housing shortage that Kiwi Build was supposed to reduce. In so doing it will increase the profits of the retirement industry that it no doubt also wants to repress.
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02-07-2019, 11:19 PM
#8024
Originally Posted by Food4Thought
Great detail. Thank you Dreamcatcher.
What about the money side... if 2 leave with 100k spending money and 2 arrive with
500k spending money... do the kiwis leaving take all their assets or leave a huge portion...
Ages of people leaving versus ages of people arriving. Intended stay time...
The have nots and the haves.
Like to see this data.
Personal view my assets remained in NZ when I went overseas. But after returning sold all my rentals as felt 10yrs of capital gains was a thing of the past and properties been debt free, reward from rent was peanuts to value of homes.
Family recently took a $120k haircut selling property but scored a 60k reduction against purchase but people say market is improving ?
I await SUM update that things are improving until then hands in pockets for me.
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02-07-2019, 11:35 PM
#8025
Originally Posted by SilverBack
Are you telling us that we have already reverted to net outward migration? Perhaps that is why Phil Twyford had trouble selling houses?
SUM needs increasing house prices to keep jacking up its resale values.
Now, there is a conumdrum (or is it Catch 54?). Labour has to sell more Kiwi Build to look successful and to fend off The Crusher. The best way to do that is to increase the housing shortage that Kiwi Build was supposed to reduce. In so doing it will increase the profits of the retirement industry that it no doubt also wants to repress.
No migration is still positive 56,100 but revised down from 61,600 just more KIWI'S leaving then KIWI'S arriving
Last edited by dreamcatcher; 02-07-2019 at 11:49 PM.
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03-07-2019, 10:21 AM
#8026
Originally Posted by dreamcatcher
No migration is still positive 56,100 but revised down from 61,600 just more KIWI'S leaving then KIWI'S arriving
A sure sign that immigration is on the way down. This morning's DomPost has a full page advert by MBIE seeking applications for eight General Managers and a dozen National Managers of various types for Immigation NZ!
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03-07-2019, 12:53 PM
#8027
Originally Posted by macduffy
A sure sign that immigration is on the way down. This morning's DomPost has a full page advert by MBIE seeking applications for eight General Managers and a dozen National Managers of various types for Immigation NZ!
Net migration may be decreasing, but its still at a high level, just down from a super-high level. With a population of around 5 million, net migration of 56,100 is still adding more than 1% pa to the number of people living in NZ.
This 1% is not spread evenly and tends to be primarily individuals aged in their 20's and early 30's. This means that 5 years ago, no individual age had more than 65,000 people, but the late-40's/early 50's was just under 65k, as was an early 20's bulge. Now every age from 21 to 30 has more than 70,000 people and the peak at age 27 is 78,640 people. This new population peak is now a lot bigger than the "baby boomers" but its 40 years before they get into the retirement villages.
The peak that was at age 50 in 2014 has continued to age and is now 55 and migration/early deaths have cancelled out to leave it the same size. Curious stat - the size of the net migration flow is such that the NZ Median age has decreased over the last five years (37.5 to 36.9). That's an interesting fact inlight of commentary about an aging population.
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03-07-2019, 01:40 PM
#8028
I wouldn't put too much weight on those immigration fluctuations.
To keep things in perspective, NZ's 65+ population projected to double from 711,000 in 2016 to around 1.4 Million in next 26/27 years.
And looking around the world at the moment with the huge challenges Australia faces with climate change (water supply & soaring temperatures for much of the continent), UK with Brexit mess, EU mess etc etc, NZ looking like some kind of heaven for many people.
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03-07-2019, 06:45 PM
#8029
Originally Posted by Blue Skies
I wouldn't put too much weight on those immigration fluctuations.
To keep things in perspective, NZ's 65+ population projected to double from 711,000 in 2016 to around 1.4 Million in next 26/27 years.
And looking around the world at the moment with the huge challenges Australia faces with climate change (water supply & soaring temperatures for much of the continent), UK with Brexit mess, EU mess etc etc, NZ looking like some kind of heaven for many people.
I agree with those realities. It would make interesting comparison with small ideal locations in Europe where population kept growing but desirable locations didnt increase. The trend is your friend
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05-07-2019, 10:49 AM
#8030
Good bounce but both SUM & RYM showing Overbought
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