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28-02-2019, 07:07 PM
#7151
Originally Posted by Maverick
Thanks for responding Beagle.
Let me try another way to explain my quandary.....
Sum had 1646 total units in
2012. The average occupation of a resident is somewhere around 6 -8 years.so...... shouldn't (averaged out more or less) all of those 1646 units now be resold in 2018. Not just 301 as actually recorded.
Either loads are now sitting empty.But we are told they resell well. So that means in 2012 the average tenure was a lot longer.ie ...the tenants were younger so they are still living on them.
Check out the last three or so pages of graphs on the invester presenation where the pictures should help make sense of what I'm trying to say.
Again. I'm not saying I'm right but I can't see any other reason for the low resales.
Are you grappling with the number of resales in any one year is always about 10% (plus or minus a few) of the number of units at the beginning of the year.......intuitively suggests a longer tenure than the charts shows eh.
We need oldguy to sort this out ...what happened to oldguy ...he was a guru in these mattters
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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28-02-2019, 11:18 PM
#7152
Originally Posted by winner69
Are you grappling with the number of resales in any one year is always about 10% (plus or minus a few) of the number of units at the beginning of the year.......intuitively suggests a longer tenure than the charts shows eh.
We need oldguy to sort this out ...what happened to oldguy ...he was a guru in these mattters
Ok..I've figured out my error of thinking. Been talking to a good mate (who's nickname is truely "goose" - no surprises there) and my fault is to consider the TOTAL SUM volume to be fully resold 6 yrs later during one year. In fact, doh, its spread over six years so 2012 volume of 1646 total SUM units divided by a six year tenure = 274 units sold p/a. Which is approximately about right.
sooo.... I can now deduct that 6 years from now the DMFees will be today's total units of 3732 units divided by six years will be = 622 units.
it would be safe to assume that you could draw a graph between now and then to estimate how many resales will occur in the following six years.
I' m sorry to take up so much sharetrader space to figure this out but I got there eventually.
the trick now is to forward calaculate the growing DMFs and add expected new sale margins and resale margins to get the expected underlying profits . That shouldn't be too hard but not tonight.
thankyou Beagle and Winner for responding.
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28-02-2019, 11:45 PM
#7153
You've made a "Goose" of yourself, sorry mate, couldn't resist
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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01-03-2019, 07:22 AM
#7154
Originally Posted by Beagle
You've made a "Goose" of yourself, sorry mate, couldn't resist
I'm sure it won't be the last time
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01-03-2019, 08:49 AM
#7155
Originally Posted by Maverick
Ok..I've figured out my error of thinking. Been talking to a good mate (who's nickname is truely "goose" - no surprises there) and my fault is to consider the TOTAL SUM volume to be fully resold 6 yrs later during one year. In fact, doh, its spread over six years so 2012 volume of 1646 total SUM units divided by a six year tenure = 274 units sold p/a. Which is approximately about right.
sooo.... I can now deduct that 6 years from now the DMFees will be today's total units of 3732 units divided by six years will be = 622 units.
it would be safe to assume that you could draw a graph between now and then to estimate how many resales will occur in the following six years.
I' m sorry to take up so much sharetrader space to figure this out but I got there eventually.
the trick now is to forward calaculate the growing DMFs and add expected new sale margins and resale margins to get the expected underlying profits . That shouldn't be too hard but not tonight.
thankyou Beagle and Winner for responding.
Probably growing at 25%pa at least
Maybe greater rate than OCA
No wonder beagles back in
Cool eh
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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01-03-2019, 09:42 AM
#7156
FA - Wonder what the forward PE is now ?...probably about 12 (I don't have an underlying forecast for FY19 yet)
TA - Interesting image chart.sum.jpg
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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01-03-2019, 10:02 AM
#7157
Beagle, I see you are using 30 day/100 day MA rather than 50/200. Have you found these work better?
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01-03-2019, 11:12 AM
#7158
Originally Posted by oldtech
Beagle, I see you are using 30 day/100 day MA rather than 50/200. Have you found these work better?
100 day MA is my go to TA tool for the retirement sector mate. Can't say if it works better than anything else, sorry. It hasn't broken through to the upside yet but I think its going too based on compelling FA. It was a very good result and surprised me a bit.
Last edited by Beagle; 01-03-2019 at 11:15 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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01-03-2019, 11:14 AM
#7159
Thanks Beagle
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01-03-2019, 11:34 AM
#7160
Annual report.http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...947/295388.pdf
SUM pretty impressive long term graphs in there. If track record of consistent strong growth counts for something then there's no denying their batting average.
Cash flow growth lately not quite so impressive but I am going to go out on a limb here and say I think it'll improve very nicely this year.
Management and the board have their heads well screwed on. Very pleased to have SUM back in my portfolio.
Last edited by Beagle; 01-03-2019 at 12:52 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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