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05-04-2019, 11:13 AM
#7251
I just had to buy SUM, gotta back my own theorum which hasn't failed for near 7 yrs now.Lol
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05-04-2019, 11:15 AM
#7252
Its right at the bottom of the 50-60% relative to RYM, Couta1 reversion channel so you can't go wrong mate
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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05-04-2019, 11:34 AM
#7253
A friend of mine is buying a unit at SUM's Russley new village.
6 people were looking at the unit she is buying.
She went to the top of que as she did not need to sell her house to settle.
In fact her house is in the trust,so she had to sell her own shares to pay for it.
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05-04-2019, 11:34 AM
#7254
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Well, I guess looking at the sales trend (below a rolling total over the last 4 years) - it is hard to identify any uptrend in the sales numbers.
Attachment 10442
On the other hand - they did deliver a good number of additional units every year and the number of uncontracted units is minute - i.e. the problem can't be a lack of demand.
Looking at the new_sales & resales by themselves, without looking at the total units growth, appears to create a slightly confusing picture. Perhaps if sales were plotted as a ratio of total units, that might show a clearer picture of whether sales volumes are trending healthily or otherwise. I don't have the numbers handy to test that.
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05-04-2019, 11:44 AM
#7255
Originally Posted by Maverick
Hey Winner, these particular sales figures matter a lot because SUM had a surplus 133 late deliveries from December that held back their FY18 result. If things are hunky dory then the new sales should be up a lot this quarter as it normally takes about three months to sell a new villa (at least that's the case with ARV).
so ....
A.if the new sales are not significantly up then it will be the first real sign of the property market slowing up or over supply.
B. If new sales are significantly up then SUM is continuing on its fantastic growth path and we should see a fy 19 profit of about $130 million.
It would appear that option A is now unfolding. It is too soon to panic yet but it looks like the first canary in the coal mine has fallen off his perch.
I am very disappointed and concerned after these results.
The next step for me is to find out why the unsold new stock is piling up and if it's a sistemic problem or just a timing thing. Interesting that they have low numbers of empty resale units but a truck load of empty new stuff.
Beagle, I will now definitely be seeing you in Wellies later this month at the meeting.
Last edited by Maverick; 05-04-2019 at 11:45 AM.
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05-04-2019, 11:51 AM
#7256
Originally Posted by couta1
I just had to buy SUM, gotta back my own theorum which hasn't failed for near 7 yrs now.Lol
Careful mate
The average in that time has been about 50% and it has been in the low 40s on occasions (just like it’s been to 60% plus at times)
Often reversion to the mean means overshooting on the down side.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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05-04-2019, 11:54 AM
#7257
Originally Posted by Beagle
Its right at the bottom of the 50-60% relative to RYM, Couta1 reversion channel so you can't go wrong mate
Range is 40% to 60% with average about 50% ...take care
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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05-04-2019, 12:15 PM
#7258
Originally Posted by Maverick
It would appear that option A is now unfolding. It is too soon to panic yet but it looks like the first canary in the coal mine has fallen off his perch.
I am very disappointed and concerned after these results.
The next step for me is to find out why the unsold new stock is piling up and if it's a sistemic problem or just a timing thing. Interesting that they have low numbers of empty resale units but a truck load of empty new stuff.
Beagle, I will now definitely be seeing you in Wellies later this month at the meeting.
In the mean time OCA care suites still selling like hot cakes.Lol.PS-Looking forward to catching up with you in WGTN.
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05-04-2019, 12:43 PM
#7259
Originally Posted by Beagle
Its just taking longer for people to sell their homes so they can move into a SUM unit. This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.
A new opportunity for HGH - providing bridging finance so people can snap up one of the few remaining (40) SUM units
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05-04-2019, 01:06 PM
#7260
Originally Posted by Maverick
It would appear that option A is now unfolding. It is too soon to panic yet but it looks like the first canary in the coal mine has fallen off his perch.
I am very disappointed and concerned after these results.
The next step for me is to find out why the unsold new stock is piling up and if it's a sistemic problem or just a timing thing. Interesting that they have low numbers of empty resale units but a truck load of empty new stuff.
Beagle, I will now definitely be seeing you in Wellies later this month at the meeting.
Look forward to it mate, I have my flights booked and Couta1 is on board so he'll be there. I think its simply a timing thing, taking longer for people to sell their homes.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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