Cat's and Dog's haven't been getting on since Adam was a boy lol
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Had another look at that chart showing the number of Auckland house sales over the last five years
While numbers have been declining for about the last three to four years (the slow down hasn’t just started which is interesting) but the trend looks less sad of late (like the decline is slowing down) —that’s not too bad
Doesn’t suggest an impending property collapse in Auckland
Last edited by winner69; 12-04-2019 at 05:28 PM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
Had another look at that chart showing the number of Auckland house sales over the last five years
While numbers have been declining for about the last three to four years (the slow down hasn’t just started which is interesting) but the trend looks less sad of late (like the decline is slowing down) —that’s not too bad
Doesn’t suggest an impending property collapse in Auckland
triple bottom?
or descending triangle.
either way if it goes less than a thou, mollywoppy!
I wonder whether it's driven by accounting issues. A cash back might be accounted for as a selling expense and buried in other expenses. Dropping the price would impact the development margin and impact a key operational metric. So how was the development margin calculated on finished but empty units again? Is it on the estimated value less the cost of construction?
Probably is how it works ...important to maintain that development margin
Just take the amount of the cash back off the price would affect margin by a couple of percentage points
Sneaky eh
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
Probably is how it works ...important to maintain that development margin
Just take the amount of the cash back off the price would affect margin by a couple of percentage points
Sneaky eh
So no big deal considering their development margin has grown steadily over the years from ~ 12% years 5-6 years ago to ~ 33% in 2018.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
It's great to see the region's continuing their resilience however Aucklands sales down just shy 20% on March last year and the HPI falling 0.5% in the last month is a concern. Until we see Auckland turn around I won't be celebrating.
I heard from a builder in tauranga today,he said all the big developer/ house builders have stopped building any more as buyers have dried up.
I think what we are seeing now is a return to a more pedestrian and dare I say 'normal' property market that has been skewed to the higher end. Which might be a bit scary for some considering how it has been in the past few years and judging from share price a few cages have been rattled.
Well maintained and presented property in good areas will still sell as they are always going to be desirable places to live.
From SUMs point of view, they are a little bit insulated from it but not as much as OCA due mostly because OCA have care as part of their core competency while SUM does not. Hence why I have not added any SUM during this downturn but have on OCA. SUM is not needs based, care is.
I think what we are seeing now is a return to a more pedestrian and dare I say 'normal' property market that has been skewed to the higher end. Which might be a bit scary for some considering how it has been in the past few years and judging from share price a few cages have been rattled.
Well maintained and presented property in good areas will still sell as they are always going to be desirable places to live.
From SUMs point of view, they are a little bit insulated from it but not as much as OCA due mostly because OCA have care as part of their core competency while SUM does not. Hence why I have not added any SUM during this downturn but have on OCA. SUM is not needs based, care is.
I think SUM is in a better position than OCA in the profitability of business.
We all know care business is very labour intensive business, nearly 50/50 patients/employee ratio.
Cost of employee has been increased sharply for the last couple of years (roughly more than 20%) but the govt has not increased the fee to compensate the cost. And I do not think they will pay the increase for some time or never as current govt's socialism. That is why OCA is changing their business focus to building/selling unit rather than increasing care bed.
Money is in selling units not caring patients. Good care can promote selling units but cost is also increase. That is why I think last OCA profit has dropped.
On the other hand, I think SUM's reduced sale will not affect their profit much because less sales means less seller fee.
I hold both of them plus MET in case, because I can not predict future and I do not want to miss opportunity when I am wrong.
I heard from a builder in tauranga today,he said all the big developer/ house builders have stopped building any more as buyers have dried up.
A poor tradesman who can't find work always looks to lay blame somewhere else, something I have personally seen among clients and people I know many many times. I think we can take this anecdotal evidence with a grain of salt. Most projects take several years from design and consenting to implementation and the build out of larger projects so it seriously stretches plausibility that they all would stop operations all at once.
I think we have seen the bottom already. Fisher Funds announcing a substantial shareholder notice last week gives the clue that they see value here and with word on the street saying they have 270,000 clients and fresh money coming to the market every month with Kiwisaver and what with it being "so easy" to find high quality growth companies on compelling metrics...you think there might be a "slight" chance they will hoover up any more small panicking reef fish left ?
Last edited by Beagle; 15-04-2019 at 12:11 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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