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  1. #7851
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Moosie probably a disaffected non house owner praying for a collapse miracle so he can afford a house.
    Different economists have different viewpoints regarding the future. Time will tell but I am very comfortable with the metrics.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #7852
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Tony from BNZ gone bearish on property market

    Must have lost the plot

    http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-conten...ay-16-2019.pdf
    This the same Tony who predicted in spring 2016 Auckland's housing prices to rise forever?

    https://rwpukekohe.co.nz/news/tony-a...september-2016

    And for the record, here is a link to my 2012 article on 19 reasons why Auckland house prices would keep rising. Most still seem valid. Enjoy if you have already bought. Despair if you have not. And if you have put off buying because of one of the many incorrect forecasts that house prices were about to fall – whoops a daisy.
    BTW - he made good points why Auckland's property prices will keep rising. And I think all but one of his points (impact of foreign buyers) are still true.

    And now you are saying he went to the dark side? Shudder
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  3. #7853
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Half way through second quarter

    Hope the mystery shopping is doing the trick and sales are booming, esp to n Christchurch and Auckland,
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #7854
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Half way through second quarter

    Hope the mystery shopping is doing the trick and sales are booming, esp to n Christchurch and Auckland,
    No worries mate, Julian just telling fibs regarding the slowing property market affecting sales, gonna be a boomer with all the cruises they've been giving away.

  5. #7855
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    Quote Originally Posted by tipsy View Post
    No worries mate, Julian just telling fibs regarding the slowing property market affecting sales, gonna be a boomer with all the cruises they've been giving away.
    Of course. Fantastic sales, fantastic fall in margin along with it. Seems like desperation to me.

  6. #7856
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    House prices set to rocket ...again

    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8...tion-of-7.html
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #7857
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    House prices set to rocket ...again

    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8...tion-of-7.html
    I think the removal of capital gains tax which has been overhanging the market since Labour was gifted the election win by Winston Peter's in late 2017 is a significant factor as is the lowest interest rates I have ever seen. 3 year fixed mortgages from mainstream banks for around 3.8% is quite remarkable.

    Different economists will have different views but I tend to agree with Westpac.

    Useful to zoom out and have a look at the big picture. Immigration is still running really strong and will underpin the market demand-supply equation and the cost of building a new home has been rising at an alarming rate vastly in excess of the inflation rate in no small way due to the ridiculously expensive and draconian building consent processes.

    SUM's metric s have never been more compelling since it listed 7 1/2 years ago, (a fact all the naysayers and doomsday merchants always very conveniently overlook).
    Another factor they never mention is the quality of the management and the board and the unprecedented track record of profit growth SUM has achieved since listing which to the best of my knowledge is unmatched by any other company on the NZX including the much revered Ryman.

    Excellent long term hold in my opinion.
    Last edited by Beagle; 22-05-2019 at 08:51 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #7858
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    House prices set to rocket ...again

    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8...tion-of-7.html
    Don't say that - must be fake news. I guess all the doomsday prophets didn't had their downturn yet, didn't they ... and for sure, they must be right at some stage ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  9. #7859
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Don't say that - must be fake news. I guess all the doomsday prophets didn't had their downturn yet, didn't they ... and for sure, they must be right at some stage ...
    Even a broken clock is right twice a day lol
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #7860
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Don't say that - must be fake news. I guess all the doomsday prophets didn't had their downturn yet, didn't they ... and for sure, they must be right at some stage ...
    Worry is that Dominic and I are on the same wavelength ....I said 5% plus a week or so ago but that’s dependent on the number of house sales picking up quite significantly.

    But when it comes down to it we believe the things we read that are seen to be positive for SUM eh ...gives us the warm fuzzies eh.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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