-
11-04-2019, 12:40 PM
#7481
Big problem is that too many on here read the newspapers and pay homage to the bank economists who generally push the narrative that suits their employer bank’s needs. A bit of gaming the RBNZ I reckon.
I’ve just read a detailed report from an independent economist / commentator who has no such barrow to push.
The analysis has the impacts on the housing market of such things as foreign buyers, migration, interest rates, banks lending criteria, amount of lending, house sales activity, supply and demand, employment, sections, government policy and a raft of other things
The conclusion — the number of house sales will remain choppy over the next year but we’ll likely see more property sales than pcp and that the HPI could increase by 5% over the same period
No link sorry, it’s subscription based and costs money ...but at least a truly independent view of somebody who has had a pretty good track record over the years re housing things.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
-
11-04-2019, 12:40 PM
#7482
Originally Posted by winner69
NZ didn’t do too badly through this global GFC thing ....as we were already in recession when that hit
Whatever we did have 5 years of house price ‘recession’ (duration to get back to previous peak)
But the likes of Ryman kept building things and selling things and it’s company value (book value) kept increasing in spite of lower property prices. Better measure of value than this fandangled underlying earnings thing
Another good historical fact that those with a myopic view will rather "conveniently" overlook.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
-
11-04-2019, 12:42 PM
#7483
Originally Posted by winner69
Big problem is that too many on here read the newspapers and pay homage to the bank economists who generally push the narrative that suits their employer bank’s needs. A bit of gaming the RBNZ I reckon.
I’ve just read a detailed report from an independent economist / commentator who has no such barrow to push.
The analysis has the impacts on the housing market of such things as foreign buyers, migration, interest rates, banks lending criteria, amount of lending, house sales activity, supply and demand, employment, sections, government policy and a raft of other things
The conclusion — the number of house sales will remain choppy over the next year but we’ll likely see more property sales than pcp and that the HPI could increase by 5% over the same period
No link sorry, it’s subscription based and costs money ...but at least a truly independent view of somebody who has had a pretty good track record over the years re housing things.
But the experts on here tell us the property market is already crashing lol
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
-
11-04-2019, 12:46 PM
#7484
Originally Posted by Beagle
But the experts on here tell us the property market is already crashing lol
They listen to the media ....never believe everything the ‘popular’ media tell you....bad for your health
Bank economists / commentators are even worse .....even suck in guru broker analysts
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
-
11-04-2019, 12:51 PM
#7485
Originally Posted by Beagle
But the experts on here tell us the property market is already crashing lol
Its time for a picture (hopefully will save some posters many words):
-
11-04-2019, 12:57 PM
#7486
There’s an updated one coming out in next day or so
A few Rs in circles ...does that mean RECORD HIGH
but what that guy Newton say
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
-
11-04-2019, 01:02 PM
#7487
Originally Posted by Beagle
But the experts on here tell us the property market is already crashing lol
Crashing?
Re-adjusting in a few areas, slowing in some but generally robust.
-
11-04-2019, 02:59 PM
#7488
Member
Originally Posted by dobby41
Crashing?
Re-adjusting in a few areas, slowing in some but generally robust.
Interest rate is still low and immigration's policy has not changed. Is housing shortage still in issue? So may be a little bit longer to go for some places.
-
11-04-2019, 03:06 PM
#7489
Originally Posted by longy
Interest rate is still low and immigration's policy has not changed. Is housing shortage still in issue? So may be a little bit longer to go for some places.
Exactly - not crashing
-
11-04-2019, 04:50 PM
#7490
Originally Posted by dobby41
Exactly - not crashing
Yes more like correcting , more in some areas then others. A classic signal below.
"However, Auckland saw the median number of days to sell a property increase by 8 days from 49 to 57 – the highest number of days to sell since February 2009."
Tags for this Thread
Posting Permissions
- You may not post new threads
- You may not post replies
- You may not post attachments
- You may not edit your posts
-
Forum Rules
|
|
Bookmarks