SUM - Summerset Group

[Lewylewylewy]

It's annoying that with SUM you can't call them up to talk about profitability in a flat market (they don't pick up the phone).

Best I can assume is that fundamentals haven't changed so much in their history that they suddenly can't make money as a normal business without property increases.

Therefore business is still good. Worst case scenario they drop to the value of eps + nta, which puts them at $3.60. Of course if valuations drop further, that will litter the nta. Hopefully I won't be eating my words here, but I place all that as a slim chance. Most likely business is still good, as I mentioned. Therefore I see them going up on the next announcement stating that the core business is ok, then going up drastically in the event that property prices don't go down any more.

That's gotta be a good bet, right?

[dabsman]

People are still getting older and people still need solutions. Nothing has changed in its core business - unless tesla release an electric body to replace our aging ones?

[Beagle]

It's annoying that with SUM you can't call them up to talk about profitability in a flat market (they don't pick up the phone).

Best I can assume is that fundamentals haven't changed so much in their history that they suddenly can't make money as a normal business without property increases.

Therefore business is still good. Worst case scenario they drop to the value of eps + nta, which puts them at $3.60. Of course if valuations drop further, that will litter the nta. Hopefully I won't be eating my words here, but I place all that as a slim chance. Most likely business is still good, as I mentioned. Therefore I see them going up on the next announcement stating that the core business is ok, then going up drastically in the event that property prices don't go down any more.

That's gotta be a good bet, right?

Let's summarize what we know / guidance that's out there.
Julian Cook confirmed build guidance for the year of 450 units per month as recently as early October 2017 up from 400 last year.
They have nearly a six year history of doing what they say they will do and to the best of my knowledge have never missed build guidance before.
Development margins for the first half were at a record of 28%.
Their profit forecast issued much earlier this year for very strong growth in underlying profit has not been updated and would be required to be under the continuous disclosure requirements of the NZX so we can assume they are still on track.
REINZ data on average throughout N.Z. has been okay.
I think we're still on track for a very good year and the outlook is sound due to the very strong demographic tailwinds prevailing in this sector.
The underlying PE is very cheap. Potential risks and rewards appear well skewed towards the latter in my opinion.

[tipsy]

Looks like we're climbing our way back. Not a lot of sellers below 5 at present.

[couta1]

Looks like we're climbing our way back. Not a lot of sellers below 5 at present.

You can thank the Ryman result for the climb.

[minimoke]

Only question now is can we leave today with a price with a 5 at the front

[bull....]

technicals look a worry , looks like it wants to test the 4.65 - 70 area?

gee wiz that area worked out well

[Ggcc]

And up up she/he goes

[Beagle]

And up up she/he goes

Finally...its been a tough year to be a holder but I am expecting a MUCH better year in 2018.

[Ggcc]

Finally...its been a tough year to be a holder but I am expecting a MUCH better year in 2018.

It has been a weird one. But it is above my purchase price and I am happy I did not need the money in a hurry. I am hoping for $5.60 by Christmas and a hopeful announcement that they are doing better than previously thought